Ethylene glycol prices rise in the second half of August
The price of ethylene glycol rose in the second half of August. According to data from Shengyi Society, as of August 29th, the average price of domestic oil to ethylene glycol was 4663.33 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.97% from August 20th. The prices in each region are as follows:
The spot price range for mainstream manufacturers in East China is 4600-4795 yuan/ton; The spot price of ethylene glycol in the South China market is 4600 yuan/ton.
On August 29, 2024, the basis of the spot contract for ethylene glycol at the port was close to low and far from high. The paper cargo basis quotation for the 01 contract this week ranges from 0 to+2; The basis of forward contracts is relatively strong, with a basis price of 15-20 yuan/ton in September. Recently, the basis has strengthened.
On August 29th, the price of coal to ethylene glycol remained basically stable, with a domestic price range of 4200-4330 yuan/ton, including taxes.
On August 28, 2024, the external price of ethylene glycol was as follows: the landed price in China was $560/ton, and the landed price in Southeast Asia was $556/ton. The domestic landed price has slightly increased compared to the 22nd.
Reasons for the rebound in ethylene glycol prices this week:
1. The amount of imported ethylene glycol arriving at the port has decreased
Last week, there was a concentration of goods arriving at the port, resulting in accumulated inventory data. However, this week’s expectations for the port have declined, leading to a decrease in inventory data. As of August 29, 2024, the total spot inventory of ethylene glycol in the main ports of East China was 673300 tons, a decrease of 10900 tons from the total spot inventory of ethylene glycol in the main ports of East China on August 22, which was 684200 tons..
2. Supply side negative load reduction and expected increase
On the supply side, the scale of production reduction in ethylene glycol plants has recently expanded, partly due to the favorable price difference of EO conversion, achieving production capacity conversion, and partly due to planned shutdown and maintenance. On the demand side, downstream demand is expected to be strong during the peak season, with a turning point in the peak season for gold and silver, and a slight rebound in downstream operating rates.
Recent Developments in Ethylene Glycol Plant
Northern Chemical will restart at the end of the month, while coal production facilities such as Shenhua Yulin and Henan Coal Industry will be shut down, and 830000 tons of coal from overseas markets in the United States will be shut down due to unforeseen circumstances.
Future expectations
At present, the absolute amount of explicit inventory in ports is still relatively low. This provides some support for the price of ethylene glycol.
It is expected that the price of ethylene glycol will experience strong fluctuations in the short term, but the price ceiling will narrow.
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