According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic PTA market fluctuated and adjusted weakly this week (August 12-16). The average spot price of PTA in East China was 5566 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.59% from the beginning of the week. At the beginning of the week, the main supplier announced a maintenance plan for the PTA plant, which, combined with the rise in crude oil prices, boosted the PTA market. But as crude oil fell and demand remained weak, PTA prices fell. With the rebound of crude oil on Friday, PTA prices showed a slight rebound. Looking at the future market:
In terms of supply, the current operating rate of the PTA industry in China is around 86%, maintaining a high level, and the overall supply of goods is still abundant.
In the crude oil market, the trend of US oil destocking is not as expected, which limits the support for the oil market. However, we still need to be vigilant about changes in the geopolitical situation, and oil prices may remain stable. Recently, the overall supply capacity of PX in Asia has been at a high level, coupled with the continued shutdown plans of some PTA plants in China, resulting in a consolidation of PX prices at a low level.
Downstream polyester production is around 83%, and there are currently no plans for large-scale polyester plants to shut down or reduce production in the short term, resulting in weak demand for PTA. Terminal demand is still in the off-season, and finished product inventory is still mainly accumulated. We are cautious about raw material procurement, focusing on essential needs. Currently, the operating rate in Jiangsu and Zhejiang remains around 63%.
Business analysts believe that PTA has abundant supply and weak demand, and the fundamentals lack highlights. In addition, the cost side support has slowed down, and under the lack of positive guidance in the market, PTA prices may fluctuate weakly.
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