The price of phthalic anhydride slightly fell in July
According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the price of phthalic anhydride raw material OX2024 has been steadily increasing. The price of phthalic anhydride first rose and then fell in 2024, with a slight decrease in July. As of July 31st, OX quoted 8500 yuan/ton, a continuous increase of 11.84% compared to the beginning of the year; The price of phthalic anhydride is 8000 yuan/ton, which has fluctuated and increased by 4.40% compared to the beginning of the year. The price increase of phthalic anhydride in 2024 is much lower than that of OX. Under stable supply, strong cost support, and poor demand growth are the main factors contributing to the weak rise in phthalic anhydride prices. In the past 24 years, the plasticizer market has been weak, and the export of phthalic anhydride has been restricted, resulting in poor demand growth for phthalic anhydride.
Main export destinations of phthalic anhydride in 2023
According to data from the General Administration of Customs, the total export volume of phthalic anhydride in China in 2023 is about 131900 tons, of which 34800 tons are exported to India, accounting for 26.42% of the total export volume. India is the largest export destination; Exported 17500 tons to Brazil, accounting for 13.3% of the total exports, making Brazil the second largest export destination. From a data perspective, the order volume of India and Brazil has a significant impact on domestic phthalic anhydride exports.
Restricted export of phthalic anhydride in 2024
According to data from the General Administration of Customs, the total export volume of phthalic anhydride in the first half of 2024 was about 57300 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 25.68%. Among them, 5400 tons were exported to India, accounting for 9.46% of the total exports, and India became the second largest export destination. Exported 3000 tons to Brazil, accounting for 5.2% of the total exports, making Brazil the seventh largest export destination.
The implementation of BIS mandatory certification for phthalic anhydride produced in China by India in the second half of 2023 has hindered the export of domestic phthalic anhydride to the Indian market. Starting from the second half of 2023, the export volume to India has significantly decreased, and the market share in India has rapidly declined. Since the implementation of BIS mandatory certification for phthalic anhydride originating in China in the second half of 2023, exports to India have significantly declined. However, since the beginning of this year, the share of exports to India has increased compared to the same period last year.
On July 15th, the Management Executive Committee of the Brazilian Foreign Trade Commission issued Resolution No. 616 of 2024, deciding to impose temporary anti-dumping duties on phthalic anhydride originating in China for no more than 6 months. Affected by Brazil’s anti-dumping duties, the export volume of phthalic anhydride from China to Brazil has already decreased in the first half of this year, and the export volume to Brazil may decline again in the second half of the year.
Phthalic anhydride exports may rebound in the second half of 2024
According to data from the General Administration of Customs, although exports from India and Brazil have decreased, exports from other countries have increased. The United Arab Emirates became the top destination for phthalic anhydride exports in the first half of 2024, with an export volume of 6400 tons, accounting for 11.19% of the total export volume in the first half of the year; Türkiye’s export volume will increase from 2400 tons in 2023 to 3800 tons, and Türkiye is expected to become a new growth point of domestic phthalic anhydride export. Since June, multiple sets of phthalic anhydride plants in Asia have undergone maintenance in the second quarter, causing a rise in the price of phthalic anhydride in the Asian market and widening the price difference between domestic and foreign markets. The advantage of price difference in domestic phthalic anhydride exports has once again become prominent, and domestic phthalic anhydride exports are expected to increase.
Future forecast
According to the data analyst of Shengyi Society’s phthalic anhydride products, the domestic phthalic anhydride market has recently shown a trend of external heat and internal cooling. In the domestic market, the plasticizer market is traditionally in the off-season, and the demand for phthalic anhydride terminals is weak, resulting in significant market shipment resistance and facing inventory accumulation; The export market is stimulated by the maintenance of multiple sets of phthalic anhydride equipment in Asia, coupled with the expected rebound in exports in the second half of the year, resulting in a tight supply of export goods. In the future, the export of phthalic anhydride accounts for less than 10% of domestic phthalic anhydride production, which has limited impact on domestic phthalic anhydride prices. The terminal demand for phthalic anhydride continues to weaken, and the price increase of phthalic anhydride is weak. The expected rebound in the export of phthalic anhydride in the future provides some support for the price of phthalic anhydride, and with cost support, the downward pressure on phthalic anhydride is limited. Expected weak and volatile consolidation of phthalic anhydride prices in the future.
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