According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic PTA price has shown a fluctuating downward trend since July. As of July 22, the average spot market price in East China was 5901 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.26% from the beginning of the month.
Recently, there have been many restarts of PTA facilities, leading to increased expectations of loose supply. The operating rate of domestic industries has risen to over 84%.
In terms of inventory, as of July 19th, the total social inventory of PTA was 2.26 million tons, an increase of 40000 tons compared to the previous period, but it is still in a historically low position compared to the same period, and there is currently no pressure to accumulate inventory. The No. 3 typhoon of this year, “Gemei”, was generated in the ocean east of the Philippines at 2:00 p.m. on the 20th. It is expected to gradually approach the eastern sea surface of Taiwan, China on the 24th, and will have a significant impact on the eastern region of China and the coastal sea surface on the 25th and 26th. Typhoon weather may lead to shortages in ports and mainstream downstream factories, causing temporary tension in the spot market or driving up prices.
From a cost perspective, negative factors in the crude oil market resonate with price declines, weakening the cost support for PTA. In addition, with the implementation of production reduction plans by some downstream polyester factories, market concerns about PTA demand continue to ferment. The terminal textile market is experiencing a deep off-season, with a shortage of orders and significant inventory pressure. Although the atmosphere of order inquiries has slightly increased during the autumn and winter seasons, the progress of order placement is slow, and the willingness to stock up is weak, resulting in the weaving industry operating at around 65%.
Business analysts believe that in the short term, attention still needs to be paid to the restart of PTA plants, the implementation of downstream polyester production cuts, and the impact of typhoon weather.
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