According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic natural rubber spot market has continued to be weak and slightly consolidated in recent days (7.8-7.17). As of July 17, the spot rubber market in China’s natural rubber market was around 14082 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.59% from 14166 yuan/ton on July 8. On the one hand, there is not much pressure on raw material prices and supply, and on the other hand, downstream consumers are resistant to high priced sources of goods, resulting in a narrow consolidation of the market as a whole.
On the one hand, in recent days (7.8-7.17), the increase in raw material supply in domestic and foreign raw material production areas has been somewhat hindered by precipitation. The price of natural rubber raw materials has remained stable, and the cost has provided some support for the domestic natural rubber market. As of July 17th, the price of Thai glue was 64.00 Thai baht/kg, slightly lower than the price in early July; As of the 17th, the purchase price of state-owned and gold rubber water-based concentrated latex raw materials in Hainan production areas is around 13600 yuan/ton, which is basically stable compared to early July.
On the other hand, natural rubber inventory is slowly decreasing, and the overall market is consolidating narrowly. As of July 14, 2024, the total inventory of Tianjiao bonded and general trade in Qingdao area was 477900 tons, a decrease of 3.07% compared to the previous period.
Downstream tire production has remained stable for the time being, with demand facing strong support from the natural rubber market. Downstream inquiries are resistant to high priced sources, leading to a decline in natural rubber prices from their high levels. As of July 17th, the operating load of semi steel tires in domestic tire enterprises is around 7.9%; The operating load of all steel tires in tire enterprises in Shandong region is about 6.20%.
Market forecast: The current domestic and international supply of raw materials is gradually increasing, and the price of natural rubber raw materials is falling from a high level; In addition, downstream tire companies have temporarily stabilized their production and are cautious about purchasing high priced goods; Overall, the natural rubber market is expected to experience a narrow consolidation in the short term after a recent high-level decline.
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