Aluminum prices have declined in June, but have recently stopped falling and stabilized

Aluminum prices fell in June and have recently begun to stabilize. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the average price of domestic aluminum ingots in the East China market on June 20, 2024 was 20463.33 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.73% compared to the market average price of 21256.67 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month (June 1).

 

This week’s data shows that aluminum prices have stopped falling and stabilized, rebounding by 0.34%.

 

The price increase driven by cost and macro factors in the early stage is basically offset, and the sentiment in the aluminum ingot market is gradually returning to its original state. On the one hand, there is an expectation of volume increase on the supply side; Due to the steady resumption of production by Yunnan aluminum enterprises, the domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity is at a relatively high level, with a monthly month on month increase of 300000 tons. On the other hand, on the demand side, there is a downward trend in the operating rate of aluminum rods. Coupled with market demand, there are not many new orders for photovoltaic modules and building profiles, which are lower than expected. There is a certain degree of mismatch between supply and demand, coupled with the strong fear of high prices in the market after the previous price increase, aluminum prices experienced a significant pullback in June. Recently, due to falling to the market game level and high aluminum prices outside Shanghai, the export window has opened, and the market has experienced a stabilization of the decline. It is expected that there is a high probability of continuing to improve in the short term.

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