1、 Price trend
According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, the price of yellow phosphorus in the market fell in May. On May 1st, the average price of yellow phosphorus was 23593.33 yuan/ton, and on May 28th, the average price was 22626.67 yuan/ton. The price fell by 4.1% during the month.
2、 Market analysis
In May, the price of yellow phosphorus in the market fell, and the overall trading situation in the yellow phosphorus market was average. In the first half of the year, the domestic yellow phosphorus market was light, with a downward focus on the market. Downstream procurement was mainly driven by price pressures, and many manufacturers did not provide external quotations, with negotiations being the main focus. At present, the trading situation in the yellow phosphorus field is still good in the middle of the month. The manufacturer mainly issues preliminary orders, and the inventory is controllable. Yellow phosphorus enterprises mainly raise prices. In the latter half of the month, the price of yellow phosphorus in the market fluctuated. High end prices will be lowered, while low-end prices will be adjusted. The overall procurement is still relatively cautious, with a stalemate between upstream and downstream operations. As of now, the market price for yellow phosphorus is around 22500-22900 yuan/ton, and the actual transaction is negotiable.
In terms of phosphate ore, according to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, the market trend of phosphate ore is slightly upward. On May 1st, the reference average price of 30% grade phosphate ore in China was around 1042 yuan/ton. On May 28th, the average price was 1048 yuan/ton, and the price increased by 0.58% during the month. At present, the trading atmosphere inside the phosphate ore field is mild, and the supply and demand sides provide stable market support. The phosphate ore data analyst from Business Society believes that in the short term, the domestic phosphate ore market will mostly operate steadily with a strong bias.
In terms of coke, according to the analysis and monitoring of the commodity market by Business Society, the price of quasi first level metallurgical coke in Shanxi Province was 1968.33 yuan/ton on May 1, 2024, and the average price on May 28 was 1960 yuan/ton. The price fell by 0.42% during the month. At present, downstream inquiries are relatively cautious, market trading is slightly light, and actual transactions are still limited. It is expected that the trend will remain stable in the short term.
In terms of phosphoric acid, according to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the reference price of phosphoric acid on May 1st was 6680 yuan/ton, and the average price on May 28th was 6600 yuan/ton. The price decreased by 1.2% during the month. Business Society’s phosphoric acid analyst believes that the phosphoric acid market has been operating weakly recently. The price and cost support for raw material yellow phosphorus is average, and downstream purchases are made on demand. It is expected that the short-term phosphoric acid market will focus on wait-and-see consolidation.
3、 Future Market Forecast
The yellow phosphorus analyst from the Chemical Branch of Business Society believes that the market price of yellow phosphorus fell in May. The upstream coke market prices have fallen, and cost support is average. Downstream buyers are still willing to purchase at a lower price, but yellow phosphorus manufacturers currently have little inventory pressure and the possibility of low-priced shipments is relatively low. It is expected that the yellow phosphorus market will continue to remain stagnant and consolidate in the short term, with actual transactions being discussed on a single basis.
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