The domestic MTBE market has experienced a narrow decline. From May 13th to 21st, the price of MTBE dropped from 6975 yuan/ton to 6825 yuan/ton, with a price drop of 2.15% during the cycle, a month on month decrease of 9.75%, and a year-on-year decrease of 9.00%. The domestic MTBE market continues to be weak and the decline has intensified. The international crude oil trend is weak, and the downstream gasoline market demand is not good. Operators are more resistant to high priced gasoline raw materials, and MTBE factory shipments are hindered. At the same time, with the resumption of work of some heterogeneous units due to shutdown, MTBE resource supply continues to increase. Under the imbalance of supply and demand, the decline of MTBE is more obvious.
On the cost side, international crude oil: The overall narrow decline in international oil prices is mainly due to the positive progress in the ceasefire negotiations between Palestine and Israel, the easing of geopolitical tensions, and the still bearish outlook for global demand. As of May 10th, the settlement price of Brent crude oil futures main contract was $82.79 per barrel, a decrease of $1.09 or 1.3%.
On the demand side, international crude oil prices have fluctuated downward, and the market for refined oil products is weak and difficult to improve. The main reason is that the current performance of terminal demand is insufficient, social unit inventory needs to be further digested, downstream users purchase on demand, and market transactions are mainly small orders. Short term MTBE demand is influenced by bearish factors.
Supply side: The overall output has decreased. Next week, there may be an increase in production. Short term domestic MTBE supply is affected by bearish factors.
As of the close on May 20th, the closing price of the Asian MTBE market has increased by $10/ton compared to the previous trading day, with FOB Singapore closing at $895.99-897.99/ton. The closing price of the European MTBE market decreased by $2.25 per ton compared to the previous trading day, while the FOB ARA closed at $993.74-994.24 per ton. The closing price of the US MTBE market has decreased by $12.17 per ton compared to the previous trading day, while the FOB Gulf offshore price closed at $965.56-965.91 per ton (271.99-272.09 cents per gallon).
According to future predictions, the overall operating rate of the equipment is currently high, and the situation of abundant domestic resource supply continues. The expectation for a new round of retail price restrictions on gasoline has been lowered, and there is currently no holiday travel to boost demand for MTBE. Business Society MTBE analysts believe that the domestic MTBE market may continue to be weak in the short term.
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