According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, from May 6th to 20th (as of 3:00 pm), the average price of methanol in the domestic methanol market in East China ports increased from 2635 yuan/ton to 3020 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 14.57% during the cycle and a year-on-year increase of 32.31%. After the holiday, some methanol units in the main production areas were repaired as scheduled, and some units unexpectedly shut down, resulting in overall tight supply and driving the mainland market to rise. In mid month, the situation abroad was unstable, and the arrival volume of methanol at ports was affected. The inventory in ports and mainland China was relatively low, and downstream procurement was still in demand. The tight supply situation led to a significant increase in the methanol market.
As of the close of May 20th, the closing price of methanol futures on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange has risen. The main contract of methanol futures, 2409, opened at 2658 yuan/ton, with a highest price of 2693 yuan/ton and a lowest price of 2645 yuan/ton. It closed at 2664 yuan/ton at the end of the day, up 32% or 1.22% from the previous trading day’s settlement. The trading volume was 1173436 lots, and the position was 1079123 lots, with a daily increase of 12011.
Summary of methanol market prices in various regions as of May 20th:
Region/ price
Shanxi region/ 2460-2480 yuan/ton factory withdrawal foreign exchange
The central region of Shandong/ 2580-2620 yuan/ton
Anhui region/ 2660-2670 yuan/ton
Henan region/ 2520 yuan/ton factory withdrawal foreign exchange
On the cost side, the available resources at ports are gradually decreasing, especially due to the tight supply of some high-quality chemical coal. In addition, the market still has expectations for the upcoming peak season, and traders have a strong sentiment of price support. In mid month, most coal mines maintained normal production status, mainly focusing on fulfilling long-term agreements, and the coal supply was relatively stable. With the rise in temperature and the demand for electricity, downstream power plants may gradually replenish their warehouses, providing some support for coal prices. The cost of methanol is influenced by favorable factors.
On the demand side, downstream formaldehyde: the Lianyi formaldehyde plant has increased its load, the Liuyang Jinggang plant has restarted, and the demand for formaldehyde has increased; Downstream Dimethyl Ether: The plan for the start-up of Xinxiang Xinlian Xincun device may increase the demand for Dimethyl Ether; Downstream chlorides: The Guangxi Jinyi plant is operating at a reduced capacity, and the expected storage and operation of the East China plant have led to an increase in demand for chlorides; Downstream MTBE: Qixiang Tengda’s maintenance plan reduces MTBE demand; Downstream acetic acid: Seranis and Henan Shunda are expected to undergo maintenance, resulting in reduced demand for acetic acid. The impact of methanol demand is mixed.
On the supply side, many devices undergo maintenance or production reduction; At the same time, many devices have been restored. The loss is greater than the recovery, resulting in a decrease in capacity utilization. The supply side of methanol is influenced by favorable factors.
In terms of external market, in April 2024, China’s methanol import volume was 1.0952 million tons, a month on month increase of 35.12%, and the average import price was 304.19 US dollars/ton, a month on month increase of 1.23%. The largest import volume from the United Arab Emirates is 341100 tons, with an average import price of 303.67 US dollars per ton. The cumulative import volume of methanol in China from January to April 2024 was 4.1817 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 5.61%.
In April 2024, China’s methanol export volume was 3300 tons, with little change compared to the previous month. The average export price was 776.12 US dollars per ton, an increase of 45.08% compared to the previous month. The cumulative export volume of methanol from China from January to April 2024 was 11300 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 27.56%.
As of the close on May 17th, the CFR Southeast Asian methanol market closed at $369.00-370.00 per ton, up $1 per ton. The closing price of methanol in the US Gulf methanol market is 92.00-93.00 cents per gallon; The closing price of the FOB Rotterdam methanol market was 300.75-301.75 euros/ton, a decrease of 1.75 euros/ton.
In the future, it is predicted that the arrival situation at the port may ease, some devices are planned to restart, supply side performance may increase, some MTO companies plan maintenance, and the demand side is weak. The methanol analyst from Business Society predicts that the domestic methanol market will mainly consolidate in the short term.
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