Overview of ethylene oxide prices in 2023
In 2023, the price of ethylene oxide remained relatively low, with an operating range of 6000-7200 yuan/ton. According to data from Business Society, as of December 31, the average price of ethylene oxide in the domestic market was 6400 yuan/ton; The decline within the year was 5.88%.
In 2023, the annual price of ethylene oxide remained at a low level in the past three years, and the market average for the year remained at a weak level throughout the historical cycle.
Overview of the ethylene oxide industry chain
The price trend of ethylene oxide is relatively close to that of the main downstream polycarboxylate water reducing agents, and the impact factor of the demand side on the price is more obvious in 2023. Single enterprise inventory is not high, production is relatively stable, demand for ethylene oxide is relatively stable, and downstream production is mainly stable; From the recent upstream and downstream product prices, it can be seen that downstream prices have started to rise, increasing profit margins and strengthening support for the price of raw material ethylene oxide in the short term.
Since mid to late December 2023, the price of ethylene glycol has remained strong, and some factories have begun to operate the appropriate conversion of ethylene glycol. There is a certain negative feedback on the output of ethylene oxide production.
Low starting point of ethylene oxide production may improve in 2024
Due to price and profit factors, the operating rate (capacity utilization) of ethylene oxide in 2023 has been running at 50-60%.
In terms of production capacity changes, in December 2023, 15 sets of maintenance equipment were installed, involving a total production capacity of 2.126 million tons per year, with a total production capacity of 8.6 million tons per year. The production of new production capacity in 2024 is mainly concentrated in the second half of the year.
The incomplete statistics of ongoing projects in the ethylene oxide industry chain are as follows:
The price of ethylene oxide is expected to rise in 2024, but there is not much room for upward movement
Due to the influence of overseas ethylene glycol equipment factors, the fundamentals of ethylene glycol have improved, prices have moved up, and the demand for production conversion may have negative feedback on the supply of ethylene oxide. On the other hand, the uncertainty of terminal demand in real estate is strong, leading to strong uncertainty in the demand for polycarboxylate water reducing agents in the main downstream, which to some extent suppresses the price of ethylene oxide. It is expected that the price of ethylene oxide will rise in 2024, but there is not much room for upward movement.
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