According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the recent trend of domestic natural rubber spot prices has continued. The spot rubber market in China was around 12880 yuan/ton on December 28th and around 12380 yuan/ton on December 18th, with an increase of 4.04%.
Recently, the overall price of natural rubber has risen, with the Shanghai rubber 05 contract rising from around 13600 yuan/ton to around 13900 yuan/ton. Currently, Thailand imports latex barrels at around 12200-12400 yuan/ton, bulk at around 11000-11200 yuan/ton, Vietnam imports latex bulk at around 10200-10300 yuan/ton, and domestically produced latex bulk at around 10100-10300 yuan/ton.
On the supply side: Thailand is currently in the peak season for rubber cutting, but local areas are experiencing floods and limited raw material output; Some production areas in Vietnam have entered a period of reduced production, and factories are gradually entering a reserve period; Domestic Hainan production areas have gradually entered the hydrocarbon cutting period; The Yunnan production area has entered a period of complete cessation of harvesting. Before the new year, the processing plant’s enthusiasm for rubber collection and production increased, supporting the natural rubber market. As of December 24th, the total inventory of Tianjiao bonded and general trade in Qingdao area was 664600 tons, a decrease of 4000 tons from the previous period and a decrease of 0.59% month on month. Qingdao Free Trade Zone continues to reduce inventory, and the rate of total inventory reduction has slowed down.
Demand side: Recently, there has been a slight adjustment in the production of all steel tires, with weak demand for rubber. It is understood that as of late December 2023, the operating load of all steel tires in rubber tire enterprises in Shandong region was 5.7%; The operating load of semi steel tires in domestic rubber tire enterprises is 7.2%.
Import and export: According to data released by the General Administration of Customs of China, China imported a total of 685000 tons of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex) in November, a year-on-year decrease of 7.2%. From January to November, China imported a total of 7.229 million tons of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex), a year-on-year increase of 9.6%. The export volume of rubber tires from China in November was 760000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 34.6%; The export amount was 13416.33 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 30.3%. From January to November, the cumulative export volume of rubber tires from China was 8.12 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 16.4%; The export amount was 142716.27 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 19.5%.
Market forecast: In the near future, domestic and foreign raw material output will be limited, and Yunnan region will enter a comprehensive shutdown period. Some production areas in Thailand, Vietnam, and Hainan will enter a shutdown period due to weather and other reasons; Half steel tire enterprises have sufficient foreign trade orders, high operating rates, and limited support for the rubber market; Recently, some companies have been stocking up before the holiday, and coupled with the increasing sentiment of buying up instead of falling downstream, it is expected that the natural rubber spot market will maintain a high consolidation trend in the near future.
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