According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic PTA spot market slightly declined in late November. As of November 27th, the average spot market price in East China was 5775 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4.53% compared to November 20th. The international crude oil market is weak and volatile, with cost drivers slowing down. Coupled with the continuous discharge of PTA restart devices, the overall supply of goods is sufficient, leading to a decline in the PTA market.
From the perspective of PTA supply, with the restart of early maintenance equipment, the industry’s operating rate has increased to over 81%, indicating sufficient supply of goods. Looking ahead, the new production capacity of 1.25 million tons in South China may be put into operation by the end of the month. Even though the 2.5 million ton PTA plant in Shandong is planned for maintenance, the overall restart and new production capacity are greater than the planned maintenance capacity, and the future PTA supply will still be sufficient.
International crude oil prices have fallen, and the market is engaged in a game about whether the OPEC+conference can reach a strong production reduction agreement. At present, the market holds a pessimistic attitude towards reaching production reduction agreements with various companies, and the overall sentiment is weak. In addition, with the recent increase in supply from various regions, as of November 24th, the settlement price of the main WTI crude oil futures contract in the United States was $75.54 per barrel, and the settlement price of the main Brent crude oil futures contract was $80.48 per barrel.
The polyester production load will stabilize around 87% next week. The autumn and winter fabrics and lining materials sold domestically are still popular, with a small number of orders for domestic spring and summer fabrics and a small number of orders for foreign trade. However, due to the relatively high inventory pressure on conventional grey fabric in spring and summer, there is currently no significant improvement in the market. The comprehensive operating rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang weaving has partially rebounded, and as of November 23, the comprehensive operating rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang weaving is over 75%.
Business Society analysts believe that the future PTA supply pressure will be highlighted, with few terminal demand orders and many polyester factories in urgent need of replenishment. Against the backdrop of a weakening market supply and demand structure, the short-term trend of PTA remains mainly weak.
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