According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic heavy rare earth market prices have been rising, but the prices of light rare earth markets have continued to decline. On November 23, the rare earth index was 490 points, a decrease of 8 points from yesterday, a decrease of 51.34% from the highest point in the cycle of 1007 points (2022-02-24), and an increase of 80.81% from the lowest point of 271 points on September 13, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to 2011-12-01 present)
The price trend of domestic dysprosium oxide, dysprosium iron alloy, and metallic dysprosium has increased. As of the 24th, the price of dysprosium oxide was 2.625 million yuan/ton, with a price increase of 4.17% this week; The price of dysprosium ferroalloy is 2.545 million yuan/ton, with a 3.04% increase this week; The price of dysprosium metal is 3.365 million yuan/ton, with a price increase of 3.06%; The domestic price of terbium series has risen, with the domestic price of terbium oxide at 7.75 million yuan/ton and the price of metallic terbium at 9.45 million yuan/ton.
Recently, the price trend in the heavy rare earth market has rebounded, and downstream large factories continue to support the market with sufficient market confidence. With an increase in procurement orders, the price trend in the heavy rare earth market has risen. The inverted situation of rare earth metal prices has improved, with an increase in on-site inquiries and some traders actively entering the market. In addition, due to the recent political impact on Myanmar, import sources in Myanmar have been restricted to some extent, which has supported the upward trend of prices in the domestic heavy rare earth market.
According to statistics, in October 2023, the production and sales of new energy vehicles reached 989000 and 956000 respectively, with a month on month increase of 12.5% and 5.7%, and a year-on-year increase of 29.2% and 33.5%, respectively. From January to October 2023, the production and sales of new energy vehicles reached 7.352 million and 7.28 million respectively, with year-on-year growth of 33.9% and 37.8%. In 2023, the production and sales of new energy continue to rise, and the increase in production and sales of new energy vehicles still provides support for the rare earth market. The prices of heavy rare earths have rebounded.
After years of governance, the domestic rare earth industry has gradually formed a supply pattern dominated by large groups and relatively concentrated raw materials. With the continuous development of the foreign rare earth industry, China’s share of rare earth production has declined from 90% to 70%. According to statistics, rare earth exports in October reached 4290.6 tons, a month on month increase of 9.0%; The cumulative rare earth exports from January to October were 44661.9 tons, a year-on-year increase of 7.7%. The export volume of rare earth commodities from China increased, but to some extent, it supported the prices of the rare earth market.
Market forecast: Recently, magnetic material companies have seen a surge in purchasing and ordering sentiment, with an increase in new orders. It is expected that the price trend in the heavy rare earth market will mainly rise in the short term; In the medium to long term, there is a lack of primary and renewable supply sources, and dysprosium and terbium oxides will also face shortages. In addition, driven by emerging and traditional demands such as energy-saving motors, industrial robots, wind power, variable frequency air conditioning, and consumer electronics, the global demand for rare earth permanent magnets is expected to continue to grow.
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