According to data monitoring by Business Society, as of October 16, 2023, the domestic market price of butanone was referenced at 8600 yuan/ton. Compared with October 6, 2023 (reference price of butanone was 8850 yuan/ton), the price was reduced by 250 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.82%.
Firstly, looking back at September, the domestic butanone market as a whole saw a broad upward trend. On the eve of the Double Festival, downstream demand and inventory were good, and the smooth transmission of supply and demand on the market pushed the price of butanone to a high point. After the double holiday, the butanone market returned to calm, and the trading atmosphere on the market was quiet. New orders were limited, and the overall butanone market began to decline and decline. As of October 16th, the domestic market price of butanone is around 8300-8700 yuan/ton. Compared to before the holiday, the price will be reduced by around 100-300 yuan/ton.
Factors influencing the decline of butanone market after the holiday:
In terms of demand: The downstream demand for butanone after the holiday is not good, with the downstream mainly digesting early stage raw materials. The procurement of on-site stocking is limited, and a new round of centralized stocking has not yet started. The overall performance of on-site demand is flat. Although the raw material side still provides some support to the butanone market, it is constrained by insufficient demand. After the holiday, the butanone market started to decline from a high level.
On the supply side: After the holiday, the shipment of butanone in the market was slow, and the supply and demand transmission showed a stalemate. There was a partial accumulation of inventory on the market, and the overall support provided by the supply side to the market was also weak.
In terms of device operation: After the holiday, there was little change in the operating rate of the butanone field. Although the parking equipment in the early stage has not been restored, the operation of the large factory is in a stable state, and the overall operating rate of the field is maintained at around 70%. Therefore, the market has not been effectively boosted in terms of device operation and capacity utilization.
Prediction and Analysis of the Future Market of Butanone
At present, the downstream demand for butanone is still not very clear, and the inability to follow up on demand in a timely manner has affected the mentality of the industry. There is a strong wait-and-see sentiment on the market, and some downstream sentiment is relatively bearish. The slight rebound in carbon tetrachloride after raw material ether can still provide some support to the market, but it is still crucial to wait for demand guidance in the future. According to the butanone data analyst of the Business Society, in the short term, the butanone market will mostly adjust and operate in a weak and narrow range, The specific trend still needs to pay more attention to the latest news changes on the supply and demand side.
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