According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, from October 7th to 12th, the average market price of cyclohexanone in China dropped from 9725 yuan/ton to 9637 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 0.09% during the cycle. The price decreased by 4.78% month on month and 4.01% year-on-year. The raw material pure benzene is experiencing weak fluctuations, with major production enterprises lowering their listing prices and insufficient cost support. Downstream chemical fibers are purchased on demand, and the supply of goods is stable. Due to the weak industry mentality, the focus of market transactions has weakened.
Cost side, raw material pure benzene, domestic pure benzene market volatility consolidation. Sinopec has lowered the listed price of pure benzene by 150 yuan to implement a price of 7850 yuan/ton, and all refineries along the river and coast will implement this price uniformly. This price will be effective from October 11th. In the cost composition of the traditional cyclohexanone process route, pure benzene accounts for 53%. The market trend of pure benzene directly affects the price of cyclohexanone, and the short-term cost of cyclohexanone is affected by bearish factors.
On the supply side, according to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic production capacity of cyclohexanone is about 6.55 million tons, and the current operating load is around 60%, which is at a relatively low level. The main production enterprises have limited product supply due to device maintenance. The short-term supply of cyclohexanone is influenced by positive factors.
On the demand side, cyclohexanone units are mainly equipped with downstream caprolactam production, and caprolactam is one of the main downstream sources of cyclohexanone. After the National Day holiday, the market price of caprolactam fell. During and after the holiday, the upstream crude oil and pure benzene markets fluctuated and adjusted, and the overall price center fell compared to before the holiday. The caprolactam market fluctuated with costs, and downstream demand side confidence was weak. After the holiday, downstream enterprises chose to purchase at a lower price, and the spot price center of caprolactam fell compared to before the holiday. The demand side for cyclohexanone is temporarily bearish.
In the future market forecast, the raw material market may operate in a volatile manner, with unstable cost support, little change in the spot circulation of cyclohexanone, weak balance between market supply and demand, and near the profit and loss line. The cyclohexanone analyst from the Business Society predicts that the domestic cyclohexanone market will consolidate and operate in the short term.
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