According to data monitoring by Business Society, as of September 30, 2023, the domestic market price of butanone was set at 8850 yuan/ton. Compared with July 1, 2023 (reference price of butanone was 7333 yuan/ton), the price increased by 1517 yuan/ton, an increase of 20.68%.
In the third quarter of 2023, the domestic butanone market as a whole experienced a fluctuating and upward trend. Starting from early July, the domestic butanone market continued to move upwards amidst the fluctuations. During September, with the support of the Jin Jiu effect and multiple positive factors, the center of gravity of the butanone market continued to move towards a high point. In late September, the market approached the highest point of the year. On September 20th, the domestic butanone market price was referenced at around 8850 yuan/ton, The high-end price is nearly 9000 yuan/ton, and compared to early July, the maximum price difference in the market is around 2000 yuan/ton.
Let’s take a specific look at the trend analysis and influencing factors of butanone market in the third quarter:
In July, with dual support from supply and cost, the butanone market “weakened first and then rose”. At the beginning of July, the overall supply of butanone market increased, while downstream demand was average. The overall market weakened slightly. In mid to late July, some butanone units underwent maintenance, and the supply side was tight. The raw material side market rose, supported by both cost and supply, and the butanone market started to rise, with a rise of 6.36% in July.
In August, with cost support, the butanone market experienced a “slight surge”. At the beginning of the month, the cost side continued to support the market, while butanone continued its upward trend at the end of July. In the mid stage, some units of butanone were restarted, resulting in an overall increase in supply. Downstream demand was generally boosted, and a supply and demand stalemate emerged, leading to a slight decline in the butanone market. At the end of the month, supported by the continuous rise of the cost side market, the butanone market stopped falling and rebounded, with a monthly increase of 1.48%.
In September, multiple positive factors combined with support led to a “broad rise” in the butanone market. With the arrival of the “Golden Nine Silver Ten” plan, downstream demand for butanone has boosted, and supply and demand transmission has been smooth. On the eve of the Double Festival, the downstream market has had good stocking and replenishment, with low on-site inventory and tight supply. The mentality of on-site operators is good, and they are mainly enthusiastic about supporting the market. In addition, the crude oil market is rising, and the industrial chain also provides some support. The overall butanone market is surging upwards, with a September increase of 10.86%.
Forecast and Analysis of the Aftermarket of Butanone in the Fourth Quarter
In terms of supply and operating rate: As we enter the fourth quarter, for the domestic butanone market, the overall demand is still in a relatively high season, which brings certain benefits to the market from a macro perspective. In terms of supply, some butanone units have been repaired in the early stage, and it is expected that in the fourth quarter, there will be less maintenance of butanone equipment. In addition, it is heard that some new units may be put into operation, and the supply side may improve, Therefore, it is expected that the overall operating rate of butanone in the fourth quarter will be at a relatively high level.
Downstream demand: Although the fourth quarter is still a traditional peak season for the entire year, the overall demand is expected to be weaker than September. In September, with the significant increase in the market for butanone, some downstream enterprises have sufficient stock reserves. Therefore, entering October, downstream enterprises need some time to digest raw materials, and the sustainability of demand is limited. However, the macro benefits and support from the industrial chain are still acceptable, and the periodic stock replenishment in the downstream will also be stable. Therefore, it is expected that in the fourth quarter, although the momentum for the butanone market to surge is limited, the market situation will mostly fluctuate at high levels, Range adjustment operation is the main focus, and the specific trend still needs to pay more attention to the changes in news on the supply and demand side.
| Thiourea |