Price trend
After the domestic POM market rose in September, it remained stagnant, and spot prices often rose. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of September 30th, the mixed price of domestic POM was 15050 yuan/ton, a decrease of+3.97% compared to the price level at the beginning of the month.
Cause analysis
In terms of raw materials:
According to the analysis system chart of the commodity market of the Business Society, the formaldehyde market prices in Shandong region were weak and consolidated in September. The raw material methanol market first fell and then rose. Formaldehyde manufacturers started operating normally, while downstream panel factories mainly maintained rigid demand. Production enterprises had high shipping pressure, and formaldehyde mainly fluctuated with raw material fluctuations, but the fluctuations were relatively small.
On the supply side:
In September, the maintenance and resumption of domestic POM devices were mutually reinforcing, and the overall operating rate decreased. At the beginning of the month, the industry load was close to 80%, but in the latter half of the month, it dropped to below 63%, and at the end of the month, it rebounded to 69%. In terms of supply, the inventory position within the month is still acceptable, and most enterprises have no inventory pressure. In the second half of the month, the impact of lower profit margins from the industry dragged down the profit space of the aggregated enterprise. The supply side’s support for POM spot goods is first strong and then loose.
In terms of demand:
Since September, the construction level of downstream POM enterprises in China has not been high. In the early days, there was still a tight supply of goods, but on the eve of the Double Festival, the company gradually completed its stocking. In addition, the buyer’s acceptance of the POM price has decreased after the increase, and the order volume has gradually contracted, resulting in a weakening of the on-site trading situation. Overall, the level of spot price support for POM on the demand side has declined.
Future Market Forecast
After the POM market rose in September, it entered a consolidation market. The operating rate of domestic polymerization plants has been reduced, and the tight supply of goods on site has been maintained. Supplier support for spot goods is still acceptable. On the demand side, terminal enterprises enter holiday arrangements after stocking up before holidays, resulting in a decline in operating rates. The purchasing operation has shifted from chasing prices to being cautious, and resistance towards high priced sources has gradually increased. At the end of the month, there was a lack of trading on the market, and the actual profit margin of traders increased. Overall, at the end of September, the supply side and demand side played a long short game, and it is expected that the POM market will continue to consolidate in early October.
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