According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the domestic aggregated MDI market is in a weak state. From September 13th to 20th, the domestic aggregated MDI market price fell from 16983 yuan/ton to 16933 yuan/ton, with a price drop of 0.29% during the cycle, a month on month decrease of 3.51%, and a year-on-year increase of 3.89%. Recently, the market demand side has followed up relatively generally, with relatively limited price boosting power. Downstream demand is mainly focused on rigid demand, and traders remain in a market oriented state, patiently waiting for the demand side to follow up.
On the supply side, the maintenance of the 80000 ton/year device in Dongcao Ruian has been completed and the device is operating normally. The current maintenance devices, including the 1.1 million ton/year device in Yantai Wanhua, will be shut down for maintenance starting from August 15th, with an estimated maintenance period of about 40 days. The overall supply has recovered. The supply side is influenced by bearish factors.
On the cost side, the raw materials of pure benzene, crude oil, and styrene are relatively strong, and the price of Eastern pure benzene is rapidly rising. However, there is still a resistance attitude towards purchasing high priced raw materials in the downstream; As of September 20th, the benchmark price of pure benzene for Shangshang Society is 8717.17 yuan/ton. Raw material aniline: The domestic aniline market price continues to be high, and the price of raw material pure benzene continues to rise. Cost support continues to strengthen, and some downstream companies are starting to stock up before holidays. The overall trading atmosphere in the market is active, and some factories have maintenance plans in October. The basic situation of aniline is good, supporting the continuous increase in prices. As of September 20th, the benchmark price of aniline in Shangshang Society is 13700.00 yuan/ton. The cost side of aggregated MDI is influenced by favorable factors.
On the demand side, as prices rise, the ability to follow up on the demand side is relatively limited. But as October approaches, there is a willingness to reserve some of the demand orders before the Mid Autumn Festival and National Day holiday, and there is a willingness to follow up with some in the market in the near future. The demand for short-term aggregated MDI is mixed.
In the future market forecast, with high costs as the support, the supply side benefits are gradually disappearing, and downstream demand is average. Business Society MDI analysts predict that the domestic aggregated MDI market is mainly weak and organized.
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