According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, from August 28th to September 4th, the domestic butadiene market price increased from 7618 yuan/ton to 8063 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 5.84% during the cycle. The price increased by 9.32% month on month and decreased by 8.48% year-on-year. The downstream synthetic rubber market has strengthened, and the demand side has been boosted. At the same time, the strong rise in prices in the week and outside has brought a significant boost to the mentality of merchants in offering.
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On the cost side, in terms of crude oil: International crude oil futures have significantly increased, and OPEC+, an oil producing country, is rumored to have extended production cuts. The market expects an additional 1 million barrels of production reduction from Saudi Arabia to continue until October, and supply tightening is expected to continue to ferment and boost the oil market. As of the close on September 1st, the settlement price of the Brent crude oil futures main contract was at $88.55 per barrel, an increase of $1.72 or 2.0%.
In terms of naphtha, the domestic naphtha market has experienced high volatility. The high level of the crude oil market has a clear guiding effect on the naphtha market. At present, there is sufficient supply in the local refining naphtha market, and a small amount of ethylene cracking in the terminal direction is in demand. Refineries are actively shipping butadiene, which is influenced by favorable factors in terms of cost.
On the supply side, the main production enterprises, Sinopec, and various sales companies have maintained a price increase of 500 yuan/ton to 8100 yuan/ton for butadiene. The short-term supply side of butadiene is affected by a bullish trend.
On the demand side, supported by favorable raw materials, and driven by an increase in the operating rate of the tire industry, the downstream synthetic rubber product market continues to rise. As of September 4th, except for some closed orders and not reporting, the overall offer of domestic butadiene and styrene merchants in the Business Society has increased to 13400~13600 yuan/ton, a significant increase compared to the beginning of the month; The benchmark price of butadiene rubber is 11970.00 yuan/ton. The demand for butadiene is influenced by favorable factors.
On September 1st, the closing price of the Asian butadiene outer market was closed due to a public holiday in Singapore. The external price of butadiene in Europe remained stable: FOB Rotterdam closed at $545-555 per ton; FD Northwest Europe closed at 620-630 euros per ton.
In the future market forecast, the recent rise in external market prices and downstream rubber market has boosted the mentality of some merchants in the face of news; On the other hand, there is ample supply and relatively high inventory, resulting in insufficient follow-up of downstream inquiries. Butadiene analysts from Business Society predict that the domestic butadiene market is entering a stage of consolidation and volatility.
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