Aluminum prices exceeded 19000 yuan/ton in August
| Thiourea |
According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the average price of domestic aluminum ingots in the East China market on August 30, 2023 was 19043.33 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.56% compared to the previous trading day, and an increase of 3.42% compared to the aluminum price of 18596.67 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month (August 1).
In the long term, the current price is in a sideways range after a high decline, and has been fluctuating below 19000 yuan/ton since May. Currently, it has exceeded 19000 yuan/ton for the first time.
Short term upward momentum
The price of raw material alumina is strong, and the mainstream inventory of aluminum ingots is low in the same period of the past five years, with relatively strong downstream demand.
Fundamentals remain unchanged
Enhanced raw material benefits:
1. The continuous production restrictions in the Sanmenxia area of Henan Province, as well as the increase in overseas bauxite prices, have jointly exacerbated the problem of tight supply of bauxite. The cost of alumina has increased, and the price of alumina has remained firm.
2. Steam coal is affected by news and has positive support in the short term.
Increased pressure on the supply side
Supply side: With the resumption of production by electrolytic aluminum enterprises in the southwest region, the current production capacity is at a relatively high level. The production of electrolytic aluminum in July was 3.481 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 1.5%; The cumulative production from January to July was 23.618 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 2.8%. In August, with the release of production capacity in the Yunnan region, there are still expectations of production capacity growth.
Good inventory performance
In terms of social inventory: Starting from the second half of July, the inventory will continue to be depleted. As of August 24th, the mainstream areas of domestic electrolytic aluminum ingots have a social inventory of 444000 tons, which is 506000 tons compared to July 31st, and 62000 tons have been destocked.
Poor export data
Import and export: According to statistics from the General Administration of Customs of China, in July 2023, China exported 489700 tons of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products, a year-on-year decrease of 24.9%; From January to July, the cumulative export volume was 3.2964 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 20.7%. In July, China imported 231400 tons of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products, a year-on-year increase of 20.1%; From January to July, the cumulative import volume was 1.4319 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 12.2%.
The demand has slightly decreased compared to the previous month, and the value is relatively good
On the demand side: Downstream demand has slightly declined and overall maintained a relatively good level. The operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises decreased by 0.3 percentage points compared to last week to 63.7%, a decrease of two percentage points compared to the same period last year. From a segmented perspective, the construction of profiles, aluminum foil, and recycled alloy sectors has all experienced a downward trend; The recycled alloy sector has also been downgraded due to insufficient orders; In terms of profiles, although downstream demand in the photovoltaic sector is improving, it is difficult to reverse the pattern of weak operating rates caused by the decline in the construction profile sector.
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