According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, from July 21st to August 9th, the average market price of cyclohexanone in China increased from 8564 yuan/ton to 9685 yuan/ton, with a period increase of 13.09% and a year-on-year decrease of 2.75%. The raw material of pure benzene has been repeatedly raised to 7750 yuan/ton, with good cost support. Downstream chemical fibers and solvents just need to follow up, and the supply of cyclohexanone products is average. Driven by costs, the market price has decreased, and the transaction focus continues to rise.
On the cost side, the raw material pure benzene and the domestic market price of pure benzene continue to rise. Since the end of June, driven by the positive factors of international crude oil fluctuations, the price of pure benzene has been steadily rising. As of August 9th, the benchmark price of pure benzene for Business Society was 7772.17 yuan/ton, an increase of 6.66% compared to the beginning of this month (7287.17 yuan/ton). In the cost composition of the traditional cyclohexanone process route, pure benzene accounts for 53%. The market trend of pure benzene directly affects the price of cyclohexanone, and the short-term cost of cyclohexanone is influenced by positive factors.
On the supply side, according to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic production capacity of cyclohexanone is about 6.55 million tons, and the current operating load is around 60%, which is at a relatively low level. The main production enterprises have limited product supply. The short-term supply of cyclohexanone is influenced by positive factors.
On the demand side, cyclohexanone units are mainly equipped with downstream caprolactam production, and caprolactam is one of the main downstream sources of cyclohexanone. The price of raw material pure benzene continues to rise, and cost support is strengthened. Under cost pressure, the spot price of caprolactam continues to rise with the trend of raw material prices. Partial equipment maintenance of caprolactam has resulted in a decrease in market availability, and downstream follow-up is required. As of August 9th, the benchmark price of caprolactam for Business Society was 12987.50 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.08% compared to the beginning of this month (12600.00 yuan/ton). The demand side of cyclohexanone has a positive impact.
According to future forecasts, with the high rise in cyclohexanone prices, downstream chemical fiber and solvent prices will follow suit and slow down, leaving the market in a weak equilibrium state. In the future, it is necessary to observe the impact of the price of raw material pure benzene on cyclohexanone. Business Society cyclohexanone analysts predict that the domestic cyclohexanone market will continue to operate at a high level in the short term.
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