1、 Price data
According to the commodity analysis system of the business community, the price of petroleum coke produced by the local refiners declined as a whole this week. On May 14, the average price of Shandong market was 1926.50 yuan/ton, down 1.66% from the price of 1959.00 yuan/ton on May 8.
On May 14, the petroleum coke commodity index was 148.87, unchanged from yesterday, down 63.57% from the cycle’s highest point 408.70 (2022-05-11), and up 122.56% from the lowest point 66.89 on March 28, 2016. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 30th, 2012 to the present)
2、 Analysis of influencing factors
This week, the price of refinery petroleum coke rose and fell with each other. Driven by downstream demand and the reduction of regional supply, the transaction of locally refined petroleum coke was good. Some refineries have shut down for maintenance, resulting in a decrease in market supply. At present, the port petroleum coke inventory is at a long-term high level, which cannot be changed in the short term, and the port petroleum coke inventory release is relatively slow.
This week’s international crude oil market was volatile, with poor performance in US economic data during the current price adjustment cycle. In addition, with the announcement of interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank, investors’ concerns about the possibility of interest rate hikes triggering an economic recession and a decrease in energy demand continue to rise, leading to a downward pressure on oil prices. The debt ceiling impasse in the United States has intensified the fear of economic recession. The increase in the number of Americans applying for unemployment benefits has put pressure on the oil market, and the increase in the U.S. crude oil inventory has depressed the international oil market.
The price of calcined coke remained basically stable this week; The price of silicon metal continues to decline, and high inventory and sluggish demand remain important factors that constrain prices; The downstream electrolytic aluminum market is declining, with an average price of 17896.67 yuan/ton as of May 14th; Carbon enterprises mainly purchase according to demand, have a high enthusiasm for entering the market, and partially support the local refining petroleum coke market.
Petroleum coke analysts from the business agency believe that the petroleum coke inventory at the port is currently at a long-term high level, while the petroleum coke inventory at the short port is released relatively slowly. Some refining enterprises have shut down for maintenance, resulting in a decrease in market supply. Some downstream companies just need to purchase, which to some extent supports the local petroleum coke refining market. It is expected that the local petroleum coke refining will be dominated in the near future.
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