The metal silicon market is weak and seeking stability in April. At the beginning of the month, there was strong pessimism in the metal silicon market, and the demand side was sluggish. Silicon prices were still constantly exploring low. In the middle and late stages, the sentiment of reducing production in the northwest has fermented, providing support for prices. As the end of the month approaches, the southwest region is about to enter a flood season, with electricity prices moving downwards and the cost of metal silicon expected to decrease. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of the 28th, the national quotation for metal silicon was 16140 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4.44% from the beginning of the month.
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Market analysis
On the supply side
It is understood that as of April 21, the silicon metal furnace opening rate is about 41.64%, with 299 furnaces opened, 147 furnaces opened in Xinjiang, 20 furnaces opened in Sichuan, and 36 furnaces opened in Yunnan. This month, the electricity price in the northwest region was increased from 0.38 yuan/kWh to 0.42 yuan/kWh. Due to high costs, many silicon companies have maintenance plans. There is a possibility for electricity prices to be lowered after the May Day holiday in the southwest region. Some silicon factories plan to resume production, but currently the price of metal silicon is at a low level, and the willingness of factories to resume work is not strong.
Inventory aspect
As of April 21, the total inventory of metal silicon in the three regions was 119000 tons, a decrease of 3000 tons compared to the end of last month. Among them, Kunming Port is more obvious in terms of inbound shipments, while Southwest Silicon Enterprises have generally experienced cost inversion, resulting in a decrease in inbound shipments.
In terms of demand
Downstream polycrystalline silicon prices are weak, with the mainstream range of single crystal density reaching 1700-185000 yuan/ton. The supply of polycrystalline silicon was abundant in April, and the operating rate of enterprises remained at a medium high level. Although two enterprises underwent equipment maintenance during the month, the production still increased compared to last month, and the support for metal silicon demand is still acceptable.
In April, the organic silicon DMC market was operating weakly, with a reference price of 15080 yuan/ton. The aluminum alloy market is also weak and hovering. The price is at the cost line, and most companies are wait-and-see about metal silicon, with a few companies just in need of procurement.
Future Market Forecast
Overall, downstream procurement enthusiasm is not strong, and most of them are buying at low prices. The metal silicon industry still faces pressure from oversupply. After the May Day holiday, it will enter a flat water period and the electricity price will be lowered to a certain extent. However, the water level in the south is still low, and the short-term electricity price reduction may not be as expected. The sentiment for resuming production in the southwest is relatively low. Therefore, without significant positive news support, it is expected that the short-term silicon price will be weak and maintain stable operation.
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