1、 Price data
According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, as of April 18th, the mainstream factory price of domestic refined and hydrogenated naphtha was 8139.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 6.58% compared to April 1st at 7636.50 yuan/ton. The actual transaction price of refined and hydrogenated naphtha is around 8000-8200 yuan/ton.
As of April 18th, the mainstream factory price of locally refined straight-run naphtha in China was 7914.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 4.08% compared to April 1st at 7604.00 yuan/ton. The actual transaction price of locally refined straight-run naphtha was around 7800-8000 yuan/ton.
On April 18th, the naphtha commodity index was 100.45, an increase of 0.15 points from yesterday, a decrease of 17.42% from the cycle’s highest point of 121.64 points (2022-03-10), and an increase of 137.81% from the lowest point of 42.24 points on July 19th, 2016. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1st, 2012 to the present)
2、 Analysis of influencing factors
In April, the price of refined naphtha fluctuated and increased, and the terminal restructuring just needed replenishment. Some ethylene demand was concentrated and released, and refineries were actively shipping, resulting in good market trading.
The international crude oil market has fluctuated and risen. On the one hand, on April 2nd, Saudi Arabia, together with several major oil producing countries, announced a voluntary reduction of over 1.6 million barrels per day from May to the end of 2023 outside the OPEC+agreement. This news has affected a significant increase in crude oil prices. On the other hand, the pressure on the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates has eased, boosting international oil prices. Data released by the US Department of Labor shows a decrease in US March CPI data, which means that the pace of inflation in the US has slowed down, and the pressure on the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates has eased. Investors expect the Federal Reserve’s interest rate hike cycle to come to an end, which has affected the trend of international oil prices. Finally, the strong demand for crude oil in China has further strengthened the market’s bullish expectations.
According to the monitoring of Business Society, the price of toluene continued to rise in April. On April 1st, the price of toluene was 7080.00 yuan/ton, and on April 18th, it was 7590.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 7.20%. The market news has strong support, and there is a strong positive atmosphere in the toluene market. The attitude of the industry towards high prices remains unchanged. The price of mixed xylene continues to rise, with a price of 7570 yuan/ton on April 1st and 7880 yuan/ton on April 18th, an increase of 4.10%. The price of PX has increased. On April 1st, the price was 8800 yuan/ton, and on April 18th, the price was 9100 yuan/ton, an increase of 4.10%. Recently, the overall operation of the PX device has been stable, and the supply of goods on site is normal. The sales situation is good, the market is stable, and the price trend is temporarily stable.
3、 Future Market Forecast
Energy analysts from Business Society believe that the price of refined naphtha in April has fluctuated and increased, mainly due to the increase in international crude oil prices and the urgent need for terminal restructuring replenishment. Some ethylene demand has been released in a concentrated manner, but currently international crude oil prices have fallen. The release of terminal demand has been basically completed in the early stage, and refinery inventory is low, with active shipments. It is expected that refined naphtha will be mainly sorted out in the near future.
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