According to the data from the previous stock exchange, Shanghai Rubber continued to fluctuate slightly during the week of March 27th, fluctuating around 11850-11990 yuan/ton, with a relatively empty atmosphere. According to data from the Business News Agency, the spot market of natural rubber in China fluctuated slightly following the trend of futures. As of March 31, the domestic full latex market in East China was 11526 yuan/ton, a slight increase of 0.4% compared to 11480 yuan/ton on Monday, 27th.
| Thiourea |
Supply side
Arrival volume continues to increase: As of March 26, 2023, the total inventory of Tianjiao Bonded and General Trade in Qingdao was 628000 tons, an increase of 15000 tons compared to the previous period, with a month-on-month increase of 3.23%. China’s bonded port areas and social areas continue to accumulate stock of spot glue, and the market impact continues to be short.
New rubber production starts: Southeast Asia and Thailand are in the production reduction season. According to information from domestic production areas, at present, the phenological conditions in Hainan production area are normal, and the production of new rubber starts, but the amount is not large; Affected by powdery mildew in Yunnan, the cutting is delayed, which is initially expected to be delayed until mid next month to around May. Overall, at present, domestic new rubber has just begun to produce a small amount, which has no significant impact on the supply side. However, from the perspective of trading in the investment market, natural rubber continued to decline in February and March, coupled with long-term imbalances in supply and demand, and unfavorable market transactions. In addition, with the gradual increase in new rubber production, in the current economic environment and industry demand situation, the market trend of natural rubber may become more difficult in the future, with strong bearish sentiment.
Demand side
Year-on-year increase in operating rate: As of March 23, the operating rate of the all-steel tire production line was 73.29%, an increase of about 11 percentage points year-on-year; The operating rate of the semi steel tire production line was 79.21%, a year-on-year increase of 14 percentage points. Currently, under the premise of weak trends in natural rubber and carbon black procurement, downstream enterprises have downward expectations for future prices, and terminal orders are mostly placed in the form of on-demand procurement.
Tire Product Price Increase: It is reported that since March, due to the short-term increase in the prices of raw materials such as natural rubber and carbon black after the year, tire companies have generally chosen to increase the prices of tire products by specification and pace in order to absorb the phased cost pressure. Enterprises in Qingdao, Shandong Province said that their orders have improved since the first quarter; Some companies are also expected to start raising prices for certain tire products in the second quarter. The point recovery of demand, which extends to the entire industry, will have a more significant impact on the market.
Aftermarket Forecast
Regarding the future market, with the gradual increase in the production of natural rubber and new rubber next month, the pressure on the supply side will continue to increase. The pressure on the spot inventory of finished tire products at the downstream end continues to digest, and there are signs of a “point wise” improvement in demand expectations. It will take time for orders to fully improve. In summary, the natural rubber market in the second quarter is expected to be dominated by small fluctuations in the range, with the possibility of large fluctuations in the short term.
| http://www.thiourea.net |