According to the monitoring of Business News Agency, as of March 28, the average market price of local refining petroleum coke was 2039.00 yuan/ton, down 5.23% compared to the previous trading day and 58.60% year-on-year. Since February, the local refining petroleum coke market has continued to fluctuate and decline, with a decline of over 40%.
The petroleum coke commodity index on March 28 was 158.59, down 8.75 points from yesterday, down 61.20% from the cycle’s highest point of 408.70 points (2022-05-11), and up 137.09% from the lowest point of 66.89 points on March 28, 2016. (Note: The cycle refers to September 30, 2012 to now)
Supply side: high inventory of petroleum coke in port, oversupply in domestic market
The storage of petroleum coke in domestic ports is at a high level, and port traders are actively selling imported petroleum coke to recover funds. However, recently, imported petroleum coke has gradually arrived and warehoused in ports, making it difficult to change the high storage trend of petroleum coke in ports. The operating rate of delayed coking units in China is basically stable, and the market supply is sufficient. Local refining enterprises actively arrange inventory, with poor delivery and investment. Currently, the petroleum coke market is in a situation of oversupply.
Demand side: terminal market is light and demand is limited
In 2023, the downstream metal silicon spot market continued to decline, resulting in light market transactions, a comprehensive loss for Southwest Silicon Factory, and an increase in shutdown and maintenance. Recently, Yunnan issued a notice on the special rectification work plan for safety production, and silicon enterprises in Yunnan have been involved. The calcined coke market continued to decline; Carbon enterprises mainly purchase on demand, while the petroleum coke market continues to decline. Downstream enterprises have a strong wait-and-see mood, mainly consuming early inventory, and limited support for the local refining petroleum coke market.
According to petroleum coke analysts from Business News, the inventory of petroleum coke in domestic ports is currently at a high level for a long time, with a stable operation rate of delayed coking units in China, sufficient market supply, serious shortage of procurement at the downstream demand end, and oversupply in the market. In the near future, the situation of oversupply in the domestic market will continue; Local refining enterprises are facing difficulties in shipping, actively reducing prices to remove inventory, while downstream enterprises are cautious in purchasing, and lack enthusiasm for entering the market. It is expected that petroleum coke refining in the near future may decline slightly.
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