According to the data monitored by the Business News Agency, the PP market fluctuated and sorted out in February, with the number of wire drawing brands falling more or less. As of February 28, the mainstream price of T30S (wire drawing) offered by domestic producers and traders was about 7925 yuan/ton, up and down by – 0.52% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month.
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Cause analysis
Industrial chain: upstream, the propylene market rose and fell in February, with two peaks. The first peak appeared in the first ten days of February, because the price was relatively low, the downstream position was closed at a low level, and the upstream inventory was controllable. Supported by demand, the price of propylene in Shandong rose, but the demand was soon suppressed, and the price fell quickly. The second wave peak occurred in late February. Due to the frequent news of upstream parking, the supply side reduced expectations, and the news support, the price of propylene in Shandong Province was actively pushed up, but the downstream response was general, especially the serious loss in the polypropylene industry, and the start of construction fell to a low level, which was difficult to drive the demand for propylene, leading to a rapid fall in the price of propylene again. Propylene is currently supported by costs, and is expected to fall in a limited space in the short term, mainly due to weak shocks.
The price of propylene fluctuated and consolidated, which generally supported the cost side of PP. In terms of industry load, PP enterprises were affected by the weakening of profits in February, and the high starting point fell back, but the overall industry load reduction was limited, the supply was stable, and the supply of goods on the site was relatively sufficient. The supply pressure increased within the month, and the factory price of the manufacturer was reduced due to the continuous operation of the supplier to go to the warehouse. In terms of demand, in February, the resumption process of downstream PP enterprises in China was slow, the operating rate of the main downstream plastic knitting enterprises was less than 40%, and the stock situation of the terminal enterprises was not as expected, and procurement was mainly based on demand.
In terms of fiber materials, according to the data monitored by the Business Agency, as of February 28, the spot price of domestic fiber PP fell in a narrow range. The mainstream quoted price of domestic producers and traders Z30S (fiber) is about 7900 yuan/ton, with a rise of – 1.46% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month, and a decrease of – 7.42% year-on-year. At present, the downstream non-woven fabric enterprises, the main force of PP fiber, have a low load, and the demand of terminal enterprises is weak. The digestion speed of non-woven end products is general, and the enterprise’s replenishment operation of fiber PP is poor. The spot price market is similar to that of wire drawing material, and it is expected that it will remain volatile in the short term.
In terms of melt-blown materials, the melt-blown PP market fell significantly in February. As of February 28, the average price quoted by the domestic melt-blown material sample enterprises monitored by the Business Society was about 9533.33 yuan/ton. Compared with the average price level at the beginning of the month, the increase and decrease was – 4.67%, with a year-on-year decrease of – 1.89%. In terms of international health events, at the end of last year, the disposal of health events in China was optimized, resulting in a large demand for masks. However, at present, the social consumption of medical melt-blown cloth materials is more beneficial, and in February it fell back and stabilized. The overseas demand has no obvious boost, and the price of melt-blown materials may stabilize at the moment when the demand momentum slows down.
Aftermarket forecast
PP analysts of the Business Agency believe that the polypropylene market fell in a narrow range in February. The price of raw material propylene fluctuated and the cost side support was general. The demand of terminal enterprises tends to be just needed to maintain production, and they need to digest the stock of raw materials before festivals after resuming work, so the demand release is weak. It is expected that the PP market will continue to consolidate and operate in the short term.
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