According to the monitoring of the Business News Agency, after a week of stalemate, the butadiene market continued to rise. From February 1 to 16, the domestic butadiene market price rose from 9282 yuan/ton to 9868 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 6.32% in the cycle, a year-on-year increase of 22.73%, and a year-on-year increase of 24.19%.
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Sinopec, the main domestic manufacturer, has pushed up the guiding price, slightly increased the export volume and the news of device maintenance, which has significantly boosted the domestic butadiene market atmosphere. At the same time, the external market has slightly increased, the short-term butadiene market supply level has been strong, and the downstream rubber market has also slightly increased. The market atmosphere has been rising, but the demand side still needs to be further opened.
On the cost side, in the same period, the international crude oil price has a trend of rising in a narrow range, while naphtha has a trend of high volatility. On February 16, the benchmark price of Brent crude oil and naphtha of the business agency was $85.58/barrel and 7951.50 yuan/ton respectively, up 1.28% and 1.05% from the beginning of this month ($84.50/barrel). The cost of butadiene was slightly positive.
On the supply side, the listed price of butadiene of Sinopec’s sales companies was increased by 400 yuan/ton to implement 10000 yuan/ton. The 250000 t/a butadiene unit of Zhejiang Petrochemical Phase II and the 64000 t/a butadiene unit of Shenhua Ningxia Coal Co., Ltd. were temporarily shut down for maintenance, and the capacity utilization rate decreased slightly. The supply-side production enterprises intend to drive up the market, while the utilization rate of the unit capacity decreases, and the butadiene supply side is favorable.
In terms of external market: the closing price of butadiene in Asia was stable on February 15: the FOB price in South Korea was 1195-1205 US dollars/ton; China CFR 1175-1185 USD/ton. The external price of butadiene in Europe remained stable: FOB Rotterdam closed at 715-725 US dollars/ton; FD Northwest Europe closed at 735-745 euros/ton.
Region/ Country/ Closing price/ Up and down
Asia/ FOB Korea/ 1195-1205 US dollars/ton/ 0 yuan/ton
Asia/ CFR China/ 1175-1185 US dollars/ton/ 0 USD/ton
Europe and America/ FOB Rotterdam/ USD 715-725/ton/ 0 USD/ton
Europe/ FD Northwest Europe/ 735-745 euros/ton/ 0 Euro/ton
It is predicted that the recent butadiene market will be boosted by exports and the high guiding price of Sinopec, and the traders’ quotations will mainly rise. The overall market atmosphere is strong. However, the growth of downstream synthetic rubber is limited, and the demand of terminal has no obvious signs of improvement for the time being. According to the game between supply and demand, the butadiene analysts of the business agency predict that the domestic butadiene market will be sorted out at a high level in the short term
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