After the New Year’s Day, the domestic MIBK market continued to rise. As of January 9, the market negotiation had increased to 17500-17800 yuan/ton, and it was heard that the market bulk orders had been traded to 18600 yuan/ton. According to the monitoring data of the business agency, the national average price on January 2 was 14766 yuan/ton, and on January 9, it had increased to 17533 yuan/ton, with a wide increase of 18.7%.
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From the perspective of supply, the current operating rate of the MIBK industry is 40%, and the continuous rise of the MIBK market is mainly supported by the supply side tension. After the shutdown of the large factory, the market expects that the amount of cash circulation resources will be tightened, and the commodity holders have a positive attitude, high expectations for the future, and the driving mood will not be reduced. The quotation is high, and the small order bulk goods on the market reach 18600 yuan/ton. It is expected that the supply side tension will continue in January, and MIBK will have no intention to make profits.
From the perspective of demand, there are few large downstream orders to negotiate, mainly because small orders just need to be purchased, and the participation of middlemen has also increased. The downstream factories have orders just need to purchase raw materials near the end of the year, coupled with the increase in logistics costs, and the arrival prices are high everywhere. It is expected that the short-term supply is tight, and it is difficult to have the intention of making profits. It is expected that many small downstream orders just need to be followed up before the festival.
From the perspective of cost, raw acetone continued to decline broadly. Although acetone in East China rose slightly by 50 yuan/ton yesterday, and the East China market negotiated at 4650 yuan/ton, the overall impact on its downstream was not significant. MIBK plant costs were low, and MIBK profit space was good. Although the downstream MIBK market continued to rise, the low industrial operating rate had little demand for raw acetone. At present, the correlation between acetone and downstream MIBK was low, The low cost makes MIBK profitable.
From the perspective of the business agency, the short term market supply tension will continue to affect the MIBK market and support the market to continue to maintain the price position. However, the downstream price pursuit sentiment is limited, the large orders are rare, and the small orders just need to follow up, and the purchase intention is weakened, and there is resistance to the high price level. The business agency expects that the future market rise will be limited, and pays attention to the purchase situation before the festival.
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