Category Archives: Uncategorized

This week, the market for refined petroleum coke remained stable

According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the market for locally refined petroleum coke remained stable this week. As of October 31st, the price of locally refined petroleum coke in the Shandong market was 1478.50 yuan/ton, which was stable compared to October 28th.

 

Cost wise: Crude oil prices have fallen this week, and the geopolitical situation in the Middle East is controllable. In addition, the future demand for crude oil market is worrying, which has led to a continuous decline in the oil market.

 

On the supply side: This week, downstream aluminum carbon enterprises in the refining of petroleum coke urgently need to stock up to support the petroleum coke market. The price of petroleum coke is affected by indicators, with mixed price fluctuations and average market trading. Recently, there has been limited availability of low sulfur petroleum coke in the port, with low inventory and increased market inquiries.

 

On the demand side: Currently, the supply of silicon enterprises in Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, Shaanxi, and Shandong regions is relatively stable, while Yunnan region mainly delivers early-stage orders, and the overall price on the supply side is relatively low and stable. At present, the demand for purchasing petroleum coke from metallic silicon is average, and its support for the petroleum coke market is limited.

 

Recently, the market for medium sulfur calcined coke has remained stable, with limited downstream demand. Currently, most companies have already sold their orders for next month, and downstream customers are mainly observing and waiting.

 

The daily production of Yunnan electrolytic aluminum enterprises is at a high level, and the upward space has narrowed. However, recently, Southern Power Grid announced that Yunnan electrolytic aluminum may lift power restrictions this winter and next spring, and downstream electrolytic aluminum in Yunnan is expected to not reduce production in the fourth quarter; Downstream multiple sectors have experienced a rebound in operating rates, with electrolytic aluminum and aluminum rod inventories both experiencing slight destocking.

 

Market forecast: Currently, downstream demand for petroleum coke in the refining industry is increasing, supporting the petroleum coke market. It is expected that the price of petroleum coke will be adjusted narrowly based on indicators and inventory in the near future.

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Weak support on the raw material side, weak PET market prices in October

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the PET market prices have been running weakly this month. As of October 31st, its average market price has been adjusted to 6302 yuan per ton.

 

In terms of cost, the recent Middle East conflict has not yet had a substantial impact on crude oil supply. Geopolitical risk premiums have been released, coupled with the return of Libyan crude oil production to the market and a bearish EIA monthly report, international oil prices have plummeted by more than 4%, dragging the polyester raw material market to continuously decline. Cost side support has collapsed, and the spread of pessimistic sentiment in the periphery has suppressed poor market buying. Prices have shown a downward trend in mid to late October. According to data from Shengyi Society, as of October 31, the average spot price of PTA in the East China region was 4881 yuan per ton. Crude oil and raw materials continue to decline, and there is currently no support on the PET raw material side, with market prices falling along with costs.

 

In terms of supply and demand, some factories offer low-priced shipments, while downstream suppliers maintain essential procurement.

 

Overall, it is expected that the PET market will continue to experience weak adjustments in the short term, and the actual trend will depend on the trend of the raw material side and the subsequent actual supply and demand situation, while paying attention to changes in crude oil.

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Multiple bearish factors led to a wide decline in nylon filament prices in October

Entering October, the nylon filament market continued its previous sluggish trend. The upstream raw material market continued to decline, with weak cost support and no significant improvement in downstream demand. The shadow of supply and demand imbalance in the filament market has not truly faded. After the insufficient quality of “Golden Nine”, “Silver Ten” also failed to turn the tide, and the peak season of the nylon filament market is difficult to find. Multiple negative impacts have led to a wide decline in nylon filament prices in October.

 

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the market price of nylon filament will continue to decline sharply in October 2024. As of October 30, 2024, the price of nylon filament DTY (premium product; 70D/24F) in Jiangsu region is 17240 yuan/ton, a decrease of 980 yuan/ton from the beginning of the month, a monthly decrease of 5.35%; Nylon POY (premium product; 86D/24F) is priced at 14750 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1050 yuan/ton or 6.05% from the beginning of the month. The price of nylon FDY (premium product: 40D/12F) is reported at 18200 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1100 yuan/ton or 5.70% from the beginning of the month.

 

Significant cost reduction

 

In October, the upstream cost of nylon filament raw material caprolactam continued to be weak, inventory pressure remained high, and the supply side was still under pressure. Spot prices fell sharply, market sentiment was bearish, and the industry chain held a pessimistic attitude, resulting in a continued decline in prices. The settlement price of Sinopec’s high-end caprolactam in October 2024 was 11860 yuan/ton (liquid premium products accepted for self pickup within six months), a decrease of 1126 yuan/ton from September settlement. As of October 30th, the benchmark price of caprolactam in Shengyi Society was 11192 yuan/ton, a monthly decrease of 4.63%.

 

Supply demand

 

In October 2024, the overall supply of nylon filament market remained stable, and most of the nylon filament market facilities were operating steadily. Currently, the daily production rate of the nylon filament market is around 8.4%. On the demand side, the traditional peak season for textile production in October was not as expected, and the “Silver Ten” did not occur. Demand did not substantially improve, coupled with weak costs. Weaving manufacturers mainly maintained stable production, and terminal demand did not show significant improvement. The order placement situation in the textile market is not optimistic, and daily production is mainly focused on consuming inventory. The willingness to continue hoarding is poor, and demand follow-up is very limited, which is unfavorable for the trend of nylon filament yarn, and market confidence is insufficient.

 

Future forecast

 

The cost side caprolactam market is mainly weak, and the cost side support for nylon filament is weak. There is no significant positive news to boost the nylon filament market, coupled with increased supply pressure and increased willingness of enterprises to ship, the market focus may decline. Business analysts predict that in the short term, the nylon filament market will mainly consolidate weakly, and prices will continue to decline narrowly.

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The price of isooctanol briefly rose in October and then consolidated

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of October 29th, the price of isooctanol was 9133.33 yuan/ton, an increase of 4.90% compared to the price of 8706.67 yuan/ton on October 1st; Compared to September 10th, the price of isooctanol decreased by 3.52% to 9466.67 yuan/ton. The economic outlook for October is expected to rebound, and demand for isooctanol is expected to increase. In addition, after the holiday, the price of isooctanol has risen significantly due to the replenishment of isooctanol. With the end of the replenishment, demand has fallen, and the high price of isooctanol has fallen. The supply and demand of isooctanol are relatively balanced, with expected sales of orders from isooctanol manufacturers. The market support for isooctanol still exists, and the price of isooctanol is fluctuating and consolidating.

 

Cost support for isooctanol in October

 

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of October 29th, the price of propylene was 6833.25 yuan/ton, which was a consolidation after an increase of 4.91% compared to the propylene price of 6513.25 yuan/ton on October 1st. Crude oil prices are consolidating strongly, supported by costs. In October, propylene prices fluctuated and rose, while the cost of isooctanol raw materials increased. The cost support for isooctanol still exists, and the price of isooctanol fluctuated and rose in October.

 

Downstream plasticizer DOP prices consolidate after rising

 

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of October 29th, the DOP price was 9188.75 yuan/ton, which first increased and then decreased compared to the DOP price of 8988.75 yuan/ton on October 1st, with an increase of 2.23%; Compared to the DOP price of 9388.75 yuan/ton on October 9th, it has decreased by 2.13%. The economic recovery, coupled with the replenishment of plasticizers after the holiday, has led to an increase in demand for DOP, resulting in a rise in DOP prices after the holiday. The operating rate of downstream plasticizer enterprises has increased, and the demand for isooctanol by plasticizers has increased; With the end of inventory replenishment and a decline in demand, coupled with a slower than expected economic recovery, the price of plasticizer DOP has fallen from a high level. The demand for octanol rose and then fell, and the price of octanol rose and then fell; DOP manufacturer’s order sales, downstream demand procurement enthusiasm is average, and the price of plasticizer DOP is relatively stable. Plasticizer demand support, octanol demand support still exists, and octanol prices are fluctuating and stabilizing.

 

Future expectations

 

According to the data analyst of Shengyi Society’s octanol products, favorable policies continue to emerge and economic expectations are expected to rebound. Influenced by macroeconomic policy sentiment, downstream customers are more proactive in receiving goods. In addition, downstream customers are restocking, resulting in a temporary increase in transaction volume and a rise in octanol prices; As the price of octanol rises to a high level, downstream customers’ resistance to high priced octanol increases, market purchasing enthusiasm decreases, and octanol prices fall back from their high levels; The production load of isooctanol manufacturers remains stable at a high level, and the supply of isooctanol is sufficient. Downstream plasticizer manufacturers are operating at a high level, and the demand for isooctanol is steadily increasing. In the future, both supply and demand will increase, and the supply and demand of isooctanol market will be relatively balanced. The price of isooctanol will fluctuate and consolidate.

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Copper prices fell slightly in October

1、 Trend analysis

 

According to monitoring data from Shengyi Society, copper prices slightly decreased in October. As of the end of the month, the copper price at the beginning of the month was 78933.33 yuan/ton. At the end of the month, the copper price fell to 76536.67 yuan/ton, with an overall decline of 3.04% and a year-on-year increase of 14.39%.

 

According to the Business Society’s current chart, most of the copper spot prices in October were higher than futures prices, and the main contract is the expected price two months later. The overall outlook for copper prices in the future is optimistic.

 

According to LME inventory, LME copper inventory fell from a high level in October. As of the end of the month, LME copper inventory was 276775 tons, a decrease of 7.8% from the beginning of the month.

 

Macroscopically, the Federal Reserve announced a 50 basis point interest rate cut to the 4.75% -5% range at its September meeting, and hinted at the possibility of further cuts within the year. This move is seen as a “precautionary” interest rate cut, fully in line with market expectations. Combined with strong consumption data in July and August, market confidence has significantly increased. The expectation of interest rate cuts has been fulfilled, and the loose cycle of the US dollar has begun, which is beneficial for non-ferrous metals in the long run.

 

Supply side: Copper and scrap copper imports have decreased month on month. The production in September was 1.004 million tons, with a year-on-year increase of 0.6% and a month on month increase of 0.2%. The capacity utilization rate was 81.61%. The cumulative production of electrolytic copper from January to September in 2024 was 8.865 million tons, a year-on-year increase of+32300 tons.

 

Downstream: Terminal demand: From January to September, the cumulative export volume of copper materials in China was 1.032 million tons, with a cumulative year-on-year increase of 38.3%. The apparent demand in September was 1.311 million tons, with a month on month increase of 7.3%. The production of air conditioners in September was 18.84 million units, a year-on-year increase of 16.9%, and the production of refrigerators in September 2024 was 9.63 million units, a year-on-year increase of 8.8%. The cumulative construction area of houses from January to September in 2024 was -22.3% year-on-year, and the cumulative completion area was -24.4% year-on-year. In September 2024, the production of new energy vehicles was 1.31 million units, a year-on-year increase of 48.7%. The cumulative photovoltaic output from January to September in 24 years was 425.16 million kilowatt hours, with a cumulative year-on-year increase of 12.1%.

 

Import: According to data from the General Administration of Customs, the import quantity of cathode copper in September was 323000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 73000 tons and a month on month decrease of -0.6 million tons. The cumulative import quantity of cathode copper from January to September 2024 was 2.648 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 161000 tons.

 

According to the annual price comparison chart of Shengyi Society, in the past five years, copper prices have mostly risen in November.

 

Based on the above situation, the spot TC of copper concentrate has rebounded but is still at a low level, and the contradiction between limited new mining capacity and expansion of smelting capacity is still unfolding. The purchasing sentiment of end customers tends to be cautious, maintaining a wait-and-see attitude. Raw material inventory is purchased according to demand, and there is little change in order performance, resulting in overall weakness. The Federal Reserve boldly cut interest rates by 50BP, and the tight balance between copper supply and demand provided strong support for copper prices. It is expected that copper prices will experience strong fluctuations in November.

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