In mid March, the domestic ABS market continued to trend weakly, with most spot prices of various grades falling. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of March 18th, the average price of ABS sample products was 11425 yuan/ton, with a price level fluctuation of -2.14% compared to the beginning of the month.

Fundamental analysis

Supply level: During mid March, there was limited change in the operating rate of the domestic ABS industry, and the overall load slightly decreased by 1% to around 73% compared to the first ten days. The average weekly output is close to 130000 tons, and the inventory level of aggregation enterprises has risen to nearly 190000 tons, indicating that the supply of goods is still very abundant. There has been no improvement in petrochemical plant orders, and traders are lagging behind in terms of goods delivery. Actual orders continue to yield profits, and there are more occurrences of orders being shipped. Overall, the supply side’s support for ABS spot prices within ten days is average.

Cost factor: In mid March, the trend of ABS upstream materials continued to be weak, resulting in poor support for ABS cost side. Entering the middle of the year, the price of acrylonitrile remains weak and declining. At the same time, the high load of 80% to 90% in the industry has led to abundant supply in the market, and the profit situation of enterprises has improved to a loss. Falling to touch the theoretical production cost line, the bottoming effect of cost prices on acrylonitrile prices is gradually increasing, and the market downturn is slowing down. Expected consolidation of acrylonitrile market in the future.

The butadiene market fell first and then rose within ten days, and the overall trend is still weak. The market continues the previous trend, and the overall trading volume is weak, indicating poor market momentum. The downstream synthetic rubber futures market has improved, coupled with the temporary suspension of mainstream enterprises in East China, which has boosted some businesses to try to raise prices and hold back, leading to a stabilization of the spot market atmosphere and a slight rebound in market prices.

The decline in styrene continued in mid March. The recent decline in international oil prices for raw material pure benzene, coupled with downstream production restrictions to maintain prices, has led to inventory accumulation in major ports in East China and weakened market sentiment, accelerating the decline and dragging styrene down. There is little change in the supply of styrene, and downstream demand remains stable. It is expected that the market will stabilize after a short-term decline.

On the demand side: On the terminal side, we will continue the previous flat pattern, and after the downstream buying stagnation in mid March. The load increase of the terminal factory in the inquiry is not significant, and the purchasing logic tends to be weak in demand and bottom fishing. The atmosphere of on-site purchasing is sluggish, and the flow of goods is slow. Overall, the demand side has weak support for the ABS market.

Future forecast

In mid March, the domestic ABS market fluctuated and fell. The performance of the upstream three materials is poor, which has a relatively negative impact on the overall cost support of ABS. The load of ABS polymerization plant is stable with small fluctuations, and the inventory level is rising at a high level. The demand side expansion is still slow, and downstream enterprises have insufficient consumption. Business analysts believe that the ABS market has strong supply and weak demand, and it is difficult to find any positive results. In the short term, the market will still be dominated by weak consolidation.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the average market price of baking soda at the beginning of the week was 1539.6 yuan/ton, and the average market price of baking soda over the weekend was 1539.8 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 0.01% and a decrease of 35.44% compared to the same period last year. On March 13th, the Business Society Baking Soda Index was 102.20, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 56.67% from the highest point of 235.84 points during the cycle (November 10, 2021), and an increase of 15.78% from the lowest point of 88.27 points on December 22, 2020. (Note: Cycle refers to September 1, 2020 to present)

2、 Market analysis

According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price of baking soda is running steadily, and the company’s shipments are still acceptable. The price of baking soda in Henan region is operating steadily, with a factory price of 1400-1550 yuan/ton in Henan region and 1500-1700 yuan/ton in Shandong region. Due to downstream demand based procurement, it is expected that consolidation and operation will be the main focus in the later stage. Upstream: According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price of soda ash has remained stable this week. The average market price from the beginning of the week to the end of the week is 1512 yuan/ton, a decrease of 25.88% compared to the same period last year, and downstream purchases are mostly made on demand.

Business Society analysts believe that the price of baking soda has been consolidating recently, with a general trend in the upstream raw material soda ash market. Downstream areas of baking soda, such as pharmaceuticals, textiles, and food, have been purchasing on demand recently, with average demand enthusiasm and a supply-demand game. Overall, it is expected that the price of baking soda will mainly fluctuate in the later stage, depending on downstream market demand.

According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price of polyester filament has shown a stable to weak trend this week, with sporadic price reductions in the center of gravity. On March 14th, the mainstream polyester filament factories in Jiangsu and Zhejiang quoted POY (150D/48F) at 7100-7350 yuan/ton, polyester DTY (150D/48F low elasticity) at 8300-8550 yuan/ton, and polyester FDY (150D/96F) at 7400-7700 yuan/ton.

In terms of cost, international crude oil prices have risen due to geopolitical fluctuations, supported by maintenance plans, while PTA prices have fallen due to oversupply, resulting in weakened cost support for polyester filament. As of March 14th, the PTA market price in East China was around 4748 yuan/ton, a decrease of about 4.31% from the beginning of the month

In terms of demand, the operating rate of polyester filament remains high (87.94%), coupled with the resumption of production of maintenance equipment in the early stage, the market supply is sufficient. Mainstream manufacturers have generally accumulated inventory, with POY inventory reaching 9-20 days, and FDY and DTY inventory also at a high level of 7-20 days. The demand for traditional textile during the peak season has not been significantly released, and the progress of overseas spring and summer orders is slow. The market’s expectation of a rebound in orders in March has been dashed. The recovery of downstream weaving operation rate is slow, and new orders are mainly in small batches and short cycles.

In terms of inventory, terminal demand is sluggish, and the polyester filament market is sluggish, with average production and sales. The average production and sales of polyester are 35.1%. The overall inventory in the market is concentrated between 9-19 days; In terms of specific products, POY inventory is around 9-20 days, FDY inventory is around 7-19 days, and DTY inventory is around 8-20 days.

Overall, the price of polyester filament yarn remained stable but slightly weak this week, with core influencing factors including weak dual raw materials on the cost side, weak downstream demand, and inventory pressure from manufacturers. Business Society believes that the decline in the polyester filament yarn market is limited, and future attention should be paid to fluctuations in crude oil prices, recovery of terminal orders, and industry capacity adjustments. The cost support below.

According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, starting from March 1st, the hydrogen peroxide market weakened and prices fluctuated and fell. On March 1st, the average market price of hydrogen peroxide was 723 yuan/ton. On March 13th, the average market price of hydrogen peroxide will be 710 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.84% in price.

Demand drops, hydrogen peroxide market declines

Since March, the terminal demand in the printing and papermaking industry has been poor, and hydrogen peroxide manufacturers have increased production, resulting in loose supply and weakened prices. The average price in the domestic market has fallen to around 700 yuan/ton, with a price drop of about 50 yuan/ton. Market transactions have declined, and the market continues to decline weakly.

The hydrogen peroxide analyst from Shengyi Society believes that in late March, the demand for terminal printing and papermaking industry was sluggish, and the pressure on hydrogen peroxide supply remained. The market will continue to weaken in the future.

Recently (3.3-3.12), the market price of Shunding rubber has been weak and declining. According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of March 12, the market price of Shunding rubber in East China was 13830 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.85% from 14090 yuan/ton on March 3. The price of raw material butadiene continues to decline slightly, and the cost center of butadiene rubber decreases slightly; The production of butadiene rubber continues to increase, and the pressure on the supply side has increased; The downstream construction is gradually increasing, mainly providing support for the rigid demand of butadiene rubber. Recently, the supply prices of Shunding rubber suppliers have been gradually lowered, and the quotes from merchants have been weak and declining. As of March 12th, the mainstream quotes for Shunding in Qilu, Daqing, Sichuan, and Yangtze in East China are 13800-14050 yuan/ton.

Recently (3.3-3.12), the price of butadiene has slightly decreased, and the cost support for butadiene rubber has weakened. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of March 12th, the price of butadiene was 11200 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.29% from 11462 yuan/ton on March 3rd.

Recently (3.3-3.12), the construction of domestic butadiene rubber plants has slightly increased, with overall construction around 6.90%.

Demand side: The slight increase in downstream tire production is the main support for the demand in the butadiene rubber market. As of March 7th, the operating load of semi steel tires in domestic tire enterprises was around 8.2%; The construction of all steel tires by tire enterprises in Shandong region has slightly increased to around 6.9% of the load.

Market forecast: From a fundamental perspective, analysts from Shengyi Society believe that in the short term, the price of butadiene will consolidate weakly, and the cost support of butadiene rubber will continue to be weak; The increase in downstream construction provides certain support for butadiene rubber; The production of butadiene rubber has slightly increased, which has a slightly bearish impact on the butadiene rubber market. Overall, it is expected that the butadiene rubber market will consolidate weakly in the later stage.