At the beginning of the new week, the domestic phenol market remained strong and upward. According to data monitored by Shengyi Society, the domestic phenol market price on November 4th was 7562.5 yuan/ton, with a slight increase of about 50 yuan/ton at the beginning of the new week.

Sinopec Huadong phenol is listed at a price of 7600 yuan/ton. Sinopec North China phenol is listed at a price range of 7550-7600 yuan/ton. As of the 4th, the phenol offers in various mainstream markets across the country are as follows:

Region/ 4-day quotation/ Daily fluctuations

East China region/ 7470./ 50

Shandong region/ 7600./ 0

Surrounding areas of Yanshan Mountain/ 7600./ 0

South China region/ 7570./ 50

At the beginning of the week, the inventory at Jiangyin Port did not fluctuate significantly, maintaining at a level of 15000 tons. With the expectation of delayed arrival of domestic trade sources, traders’ intentions were high, and most offers on Monday remained firm. From a cost perspective, the spot price of pure benzene has risen, with reference transactions ranging from 7200-7350 yuan/ton. The restart of styrene maintenance facilities in the distant months has increased demand for pure benzene, which is favorable for the benzene market. From a cost perspective, it provides favorable support for downstream phenol.

The downstream bisphenol A spot market is running lightly, and overall it remains lukewarm in November. Market offers are steadily advancing, with negotiations in the East China region at 8900-9100 yuan/ton. There is currently no significant news impact on the market.

It is expected that the phenol market will continue to rise in price, and attention should be paid to the fundamental dynamics of supply and demand.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the price of cotton yarn rose sharply in October and then slightly fell back. As of October 31, the reference price of 21S pure cotton ring spinning spot in Shandong Province, China was around 22970 yuan/ton, an increase of about 330 yuan/ton from the beginning of the month, an increase of 1.47%; The reference price for 32S pure cotton ring spinning spot is 24400 yuan/ton, an increase of 525 yuan/ton or 2.20% from the beginning of the month.

Market Overview: After the National Day holiday, downstream fabric factories have concentrated on purchasing, and textile enterprises have increased their orders, resulting in price increases. Some manufacturers have raised their cotton yarn prices by 500-800 yuan/ton, but the peak season support time is relatively short. In the mid to late months, textile enterprises have gradually decreased their orders, and prices have slightly decreased. During the month, the futures price of Zhengzhou cotton significantly weakened, coupled with the weak peak season and limited orders from cotton yarn enterprises. The Zhengzhou cotton main chain also followed suit and weakened, with a monthly drop of 920 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4.52%.

Startup situation: The textile market orders were basically stable in October, with a significant decrease in startup for small textile enterprises and a stable startup for large enterprises. Overall, there was little change, and most enterprises maintained normal production, while some manufacturers increased the proportion of cotton startups. As of the end of October, the operating load of mainstream textile enterprises was 72.5%, with a month on month increase of 0.1%, basically stable.

Finished product inventory: In early October, cotton yarn shipments were smooth. After mid October, due to poor follow-up of new orders, small and medium-sized yarn factories adjusted their operations to maintain reasonable inventory. As of the end of October, the yarn inventory of major regional textile enterprises was 23.9 days, a month on month decrease of 5.91%.

In terms of raw materials: Currently, cotton is in a concentrated supply season, and commercial inventories have entered an increasing state. Expected cotton prices to fluctuate weakly in November, pay attention to macroeconomic policy adjustments and external market dynamics.

On the demand side: The market for greige fabric is flat, affected by factory inventory and sluggish orders. Even if yarn prices rise, the price of regular greige fabric has not been able to increase. Recently, there has been a decreasing trend in overall orders, with some orders being overturned but all being small orders, mainly consisting of early replenishment.

Market forecast: After the “Silver October”, downstream demand will gradually weaken, and the market trading atmosphere will decrease. It is expected that textile companies will lower their operating rates to reduce inventory. There is currently no positive support for downstream in the short term, and it is expected that cotton yarn prices will be weak next month. We will continue to pay attention to the order situation of fabric factories.

According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the market for locally refined petroleum coke remained stable this week. As of October 31st, the price of locally refined petroleum coke in the Shandong market was 1478.50 yuan/ton, which was stable compared to October 28th.

Cost wise: Crude oil prices have fallen this week, and the geopolitical situation in the Middle East is controllable. In addition, the future demand for crude oil market is worrying, which has led to a continuous decline in the oil market.

On the supply side: This week, downstream aluminum carbon enterprises in the refining of petroleum coke urgently need to stock up to support the petroleum coke market. The price of petroleum coke is affected by indicators, with mixed price fluctuations and average market trading. Recently, there has been limited availability of low sulfur petroleum coke in the port, with low inventory and increased market inquiries.

On the demand side: Currently, the supply of silicon enterprises in Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, Shaanxi, and Shandong regions is relatively stable, while Yunnan region mainly delivers early-stage orders, and the overall price on the supply side is relatively low and stable. At present, the demand for purchasing petroleum coke from metallic silicon is average, and its support for the petroleum coke market is limited.

Recently, the market for medium sulfur calcined coke has remained stable, with limited downstream demand. Currently, most companies have already sold their orders for next month, and downstream customers are mainly observing and waiting.

The daily production of Yunnan electrolytic aluminum enterprises is at a high level, and the upward space has narrowed. However, recently, Southern Power Grid announced that Yunnan electrolytic aluminum may lift power restrictions this winter and next spring, and downstream electrolytic aluminum in Yunnan is expected to not reduce production in the fourth quarter; Downstream multiple sectors have experienced a rebound in operating rates, with electrolytic aluminum and aluminum rod inventories both experiencing slight destocking.

Market forecast: Currently, downstream demand for petroleum coke in the refining industry is increasing, supporting the petroleum coke market. It is expected that the price of petroleum coke will be adjusted narrowly based on indicators and inventory in the near future.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the PET market prices have been running weakly this month. As of October 31st, its average market price has been adjusted to 6302 yuan per ton.

In terms of cost, the recent Middle East conflict has not yet had a substantial impact on crude oil supply. Geopolitical risk premiums have been released, coupled with the return of Libyan crude oil production to the market and a bearish EIA monthly report, international oil prices have plummeted by more than 4%, dragging the polyester raw material market to continuously decline. Cost side support has collapsed, and the spread of pessimistic sentiment in the periphery has suppressed poor market buying. Prices have shown a downward trend in mid to late October. According to data from Shengyi Society, as of October 31, the average spot price of PTA in the East China region was 4881 yuan per ton. Crude oil and raw materials continue to decline, and there is currently no support on the PET raw material side, with market prices falling along with costs.

In terms of supply and demand, some factories offer low-priced shipments, while downstream suppliers maintain essential procurement.

Overall, it is expected that the PET market will continue to experience weak adjustments in the short term, and the actual trend will depend on the trend of the raw material side and the subsequent actual supply and demand situation, while paying attention to changes in crude oil.

Entering October, the nylon filament market continued its previous sluggish trend. The upstream raw material market continued to decline, with weak cost support and no significant improvement in downstream demand. The shadow of supply and demand imbalance in the filament market has not truly faded. After the insufficient quality of “Golden Nine”, “Silver Ten” also failed to turn the tide, and the peak season of the nylon filament market is difficult to find. Multiple negative impacts have led to a wide decline in nylon filament prices in October.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the market price of nylon filament will continue to decline sharply in October 2024. As of October 30, 2024, the price of nylon filament DTY (premium product; 70D/24F) in Jiangsu region is 17240 yuan/ton, a decrease of 980 yuan/ton from the beginning of the month, a monthly decrease of 5.35%; Nylon POY (premium product; 86D/24F) is priced at 14750 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1050 yuan/ton or 6.05% from the beginning of the month. The price of nylon FDY (premium product: 40D/12F) is reported at 18200 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1100 yuan/ton or 5.70% from the beginning of the month.

Significant cost reduction

In October, the upstream cost of nylon filament raw material caprolactam continued to be weak, inventory pressure remained high, and the supply side was still under pressure. Spot prices fell sharply, market sentiment was bearish, and the industry chain held a pessimistic attitude, resulting in a continued decline in prices. The settlement price of Sinopec’s high-end caprolactam in October 2024 was 11860 yuan/ton (liquid premium products accepted for self pickup within six months), a decrease of 1126 yuan/ton from September settlement. As of October 30th, the benchmark price of caprolactam in Shengyi Society was 11192 yuan/ton, a monthly decrease of 4.63%.

Supply demand

In October 2024, the overall supply of nylon filament market remained stable, and most of the nylon filament market facilities were operating steadily. Currently, the daily production rate of the nylon filament market is around 8.4%. On the demand side, the traditional peak season for textile production in October was not as expected, and the “Silver Ten” did not occur. Demand did not substantially improve, coupled with weak costs. Weaving manufacturers mainly maintained stable production, and terminal demand did not show significant improvement. The order placement situation in the textile market is not optimistic, and daily production is mainly focused on consuming inventory. The willingness to continue hoarding is poor, and demand follow-up is very limited, which is unfavorable for the trend of nylon filament yarn, and market confidence is insufficient.

Future forecast

The cost side caprolactam market is mainly weak, and the cost side support for nylon filament is weak. There is no significant positive news to boost the nylon filament market, coupled with increased supply pressure and increased willingness of enterprises to ship, the market focus may decline. Business analysts predict that in the short term, the nylon filament market will mainly consolidate weakly, and prices will continue to decline narrowly.