According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, on September 30th, the domestic cyclohexanone market price reference was 9412 yuan/ton. On October 10th, the domestic cyclohexanone market price reference was 9525 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 113 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.20%.

From the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, it can be seen that after the National Day holiday, the overall market situation of cyclohexanone in China has shown a fluctuating upward trend. In the two days before the start of work after the holiday, the stability of raw materials has provided certain support to the market, and downstream procurement is still acceptable. The cyclohexanone market is generally stable with an upward trend. After a brief rise, as the raw material pure benzene market weakened and fell, the cost support for cyclohexanone weakened, and downstream demand was unable to support the stable operation of the market. The supply of cyclohexanone was under pressure, and the cyclohexanone market experienced a downward adjustment, with a reduction of about 100 yuan/ton. On October 10th, the market price of cyclohexanone in Shandong region was around 9500-9700 yuan/ton, and the market price of cyclohexanone in Inner Mongolia region was around 9300-9400 yuan/ton.

Fundamental situation: Currently, the overall supply of cyclohexanone market is relatively loose, with an overall performance of oversupply in the market. The downstream solvent and chemical fiber markets are mainly driven by rigid demand procurement, with average overall demand performance. The market is currently showing stable, moderate, and weak operation.

Market analysis in the future

At present, the overall trading atmosphere in the cyclohexanone market is light, and the “Silver Ten” effect is not obvious. The transmission between overall supply and demand is weak. The cyclohexanone data analyst from Business Society believes that in the short term, the domestic cyclohexanone market will mostly operate in a narrow range, and specific changes in supply and demand information need to be closely monitored.

In this cycle (20241002-20241009), the cost side and demand side played a game, and the overall price of acrylic acid market showed a trend of oscillation and consolidation during the week. The atmosphere of negotiations in various regions was not lively. Although the overall supply and demand pressure was not high, the fundamentals still maintained a weak trend. On October 9th, the benchmark price of acrylic acid in Shengyi Society was 6775.00 yuan/ton, unchanged from the beginning of this month.

In terms of cost

Recently, the price of propylene in the market has fluctuated upwards, with clear macroeconomic support. The spot market price has fluctuated upwards, but the enthusiasm for downstream market replenishment is limited, and there is a clear wait-and-see attitude among market participants. Currently, it is expected that the propylene market price will adjust narrowly in the short term, but it is still necessary to closely monitor downstream demand follow-up in the later stage.

The closing price of crude oil has risen significantly, and the price of propylene monomer during the holiday has also increased. With the gradual adjustment of enterprises, as of October 9th, the benchmark price of propylene in Shengyi Society was 6800.75 yuan/ton, an increase of 4.41% compared to the beginning of this month (6513.25 yuan/ton).

In terms of demand

The price of butyl acrylate has decreased. This week, the butyl acrylate market has slightly declined, and the trading atmosphere in the market is quiet. Downstream manufacturers have a heavy wait-and-see attitude, and transactions are mainly dominated by first-time contract holders. The focus of butyl acrylate quotations is gradually shifting downwards, and the upstream cost support is also limited. In the short term, it is expected that the butyl acrylate market will continue to remain weak, and it is recommended to purchase according to demand.

In summary, the acrylic acid market is maintaining a stable operation, while the upstream acrylic acid market is fluctuating within a range. The listed prices of production enterprises are fluctuating, and the listed prices of acrylic acid manufacturers are temporarily stable. The trading atmosphere on the market is flat, and the overall production capacity is at a low level with limited fluctuations. The downstream market’s enthusiasm for receiving goods needs to be improved, and long-term contracts are mainly executed. The short-term market may continue to consolidate and operate.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic TDI prices fell in a stepwise manner in September. At the beginning of the month, the average TDI market price was 14100 yuan/ton. On September 30th, the TDI price was 13050 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7.45% during the month and a year-on-year decrease of 27.63%.

In September, the domestic TDI market operated weakly, with prices falling sharply. The TDI market in September was greatly affected by the demand side, with weak downstream demand. In order to stimulate sales, supplier prices continued to loosen, and the focus of transactions continued to shift downwards. In the atmosphere of buying up and not buying down, the market has a strong wait-and-see atmosphere,

The upstream toluene market has experienced a wide decline, with the domestic average price of toluene at around 5909 yuan/ton as of September 30th, a decrease of 13.61% from the price of 6840 yuan/ton on September 1st. The crude oil market trend is weak this month, and the overall market environment is bearish. Under the downstream wait-and-see mentality, market trading is clearly sluggish. The main refineries have repeatedly lowered their ex factory prices, and local refining enterprises have continuously lowered their quotations. Downstream companies are observing and the purchasing enthusiasm is generally weak.

Market analysis shows that the TDI data analyst from Shengyi Society believes that throughout September, the TDI market was in a state of strong supply and weak demand. The downstream market performed poorly in terms of demand, maintaining the intention to purchase for essential needs. Although there is a demand for stocking up in the downstream near the holiday, the overall demand is still difficult to increase, and the demand side is still weak. It is expected that the TDI market will operate weakly in the short term, and specific attention should be paid to downstream purchasing follow-up.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the price of acetic acid remained stable on September 30th, with an average market price of 3250 yuan/ton in the East China region, unchanged from yesterday’s price and a decrease of 2.99% from the beginning of the month.

The acetic acid market continues to operate steadily, and enterprise quotations remain unchanged. On the supply side, the acetic acid plant maintains its initial load, and the market supply of goods is stable. Before the holiday, the mentality of enterprises is relatively weak, and negotiations for shipment are the main focus; On the demand side, downstream stocking sentiment is average, and we will continue to follow up on demand. The supply and demand on site are relatively balanced, and the price of acetic acid remains stable.

On September 30th, the market prices of acetic acid in various regions are as follows:

Region/ September 29th/ On September 30th/ Rise and fall

South China region/ 3100 yuan/ton/ 3100 yuan/ton/ 0

North China region/ 3150 yuan/ton/ 3150 yuan/ton/ 0

Shandong region/ 3150 yuan/ton/ 3150 yuan/ton/ 0

Jiangsu region/ 2875 yuan/ton/ 2875 yuan/ton/ 0

Zhejiang region/ 2975 yuan/ton/ 2975 yuan/ton/ 0

The upstream raw material methanol market has risen narrowly. On September 30th, the average price in the domestic market was 2577.50 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.35% compared to yesterday’s price of 2518.33 yuan/ton. Macro positive support, the domestic methanol market continues to rise. At the same time, there is a significant destocking of port inventory, and port methanol prices are relatively strong, with methanol prices remaining firm before the holiday.

On September 30th, the downstream acetic anhydride market remained stable, with an average ex factory price of 5472.50 yuan/ton, unchanged from yesterday’s price. The upstream acetic acid market remains stable, and the cost support for acetic anhydride is still acceptable. Downstream demand is expected to follow up before the holiday, and the market trading atmosphere is relatively weak. The acetic anhydride market is running steadily and cautiously.

Market forecast: According to the acetic acid analyst from Shengyi Society, the acetic acid plant is currently operating normally, the market supply is stable, and there is still pressure on manufacturers to sell; Downstream demand is average, and market trading is mainly based on demand. The atmosphere in the market is deadlocked, and it is expected that the acetic acid market will consolidate and operate after the holiday, with prices possibly weak. We will pay attention to downstream follow-up in the future.

The market for ethyl acetate in September showed a strong upward trend. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of September 29th, the average production price of ethyl acetate was 6066.67 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan/ton compared to the beginning of the month price of 6016.67 yuan/ton, with an overall increase of 0.83%. The main reason for the increase in ethyl acetate prices is due to favorable demand support, good market trading direction, and a rising supply mentality.

Market analysis: This month, the market price of ethyl acetate first fell and then rose. In the first half of the year, the price of raw material acetic acid declined, with a negative impact on the cost side. At the same time, downstream demand was insufficient, and the market trading atmosphere was light, resulting in a downward adjustment of ethyl ester prices; In the second half of the year, the demand side supported the market, downstream buyers actively entered the market, replenishment demand improved before and after the holiday, and enterprise shipments were smooth. The price of ethyl acetate continued to rise, but due to the stable upstream market, the price was transmitted to the end market, which to some extent suppressed the increase in ethyl acetate prices.

According to the Business Society Acetic Acid Commodity Market Analysis System, as of September 29th, the price was 3250.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.99% compared to the acetic acid price of 3350.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month. The raw material side acetic acid market is weak and consolidating, with insufficient cost support, which has limited boost to ethyl acetate.

Looking at the future market, the price of ethyl acetate is currently stable, and downstream purchasing enthusiasm has weakened. Follow up on demand is the main focus when entering the market. The price of raw material acetic acid remains stable, providing average support for the ethyl acetate market. Pre holiday market trading is gradually returning to a flat state, and it is expected that the ethyl acetate market will operate narrowly in the future. It is recommended to pay attention to the price execution of raw material acetic acid and ethyl acetate manufacturers.