According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of January 17th, the price of 0 # zinc was 24204 yuan/ton, a slight decrease of 2.43% compared to the zinc price of 24806 yuan/ton on January 13th.

This week’s market analysis

This week, zinc prices continued to decline initially, with signs of recovery over the weekend, showing an overall trend of initially suppressing and then rising. At the macro level, China’s GDP performance exceeded market expectations, and at the same time, the expectation of favorable policies has once again risen. The expectation of overseas interest rate cuts has been partially repaired, which are the main reasons for the rebound of the zinc market in the late trading session. However, given that Trump is about to take office, the potential risks involved cannot be ignored and need to be carefully monitored.

Supply and demand side

This week, the smelting profit of refined zinc manufacturers showed a further expansion of losses compared to the beginning of the week. The supply of zinc ore both domestically and internationally is gradually recovering, with domestic processing fees remaining stable while import processing fees have increased. The expansion of this loss is mainly due to the downward shift of the center of gravity of zinc prices.

Demand side

As the Spring Festival approaches, some small enterprises in Guangxi and Hunan regions have gradually formulated holiday arrangements, and the expected duration of work stoppage will range from one week to half a month. On the demand side, downstream industries have not received satisfactory orders this month, resulting in a rapid decline in the operating rates of various downstream enterprises.

comprehensive analysis

The improvement of macro level emotions is the main driving force behind the bottoming out and rebound of zinc prices. However, the expectation of fundamental inventory accumulation still holds, coupled with uncertain factors in the overseas macro environment, which may cause disturbances to zinc prices. Therefore, it is expected that the space for further increase in zinc prices in the short term may be limited.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the 1 # tin ingot market in East China rose this week (1.1-1.10), with an average market price of 245960 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week and 252190 yuan/ton at the end of the week, an increase of 2.53%.

This week, the overall tin price fluctuated at a low level and then rose slightly. This week, spot market prices have fluctuated widely with Shanghai tin. From a macro perspective, the government’s policy of offering subsidies for the trade in of consumer electronics has a positive impact on tin prices and provides support. However, with the expectation of the Federal Reserve suspending interest rate cuts, there is no support for the non-ferrous sector and caution is needed.

Fundamentally, tin ore supply remained tight in January, and the smelting end gradually entered seasonal shutdowns due to the approaching Spring Festival holiday, resulting in a decrease in supply.

On the supply and demand side, the market has gradually started borrowing money to stock up recently, and tin prices have fluctuated and risen within a certain range. With the price increase, downstream sentiment of fear of high prices has emerged, and the willingness to transact has decreased. Downstream soldering companies have shown good order performance and active terminal procurement.

Overall, the favorable policies support tin prices, but in the short term, due to the upcoming traditional Spring Festival holiday and the entry of enterprises into holiday mode, market trading volume has decreased. Expected to fluctuate within the tin price range in the short term.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the magnesium ingot market in Shaanxi Province has slightly declined, with an average market price of 16250 yuan/ton at the end of the month and 16266 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month, a decrease of 0.10%.

This month’s market analysis

The magnesium ingot market is expected to remain stable in the first month of 2025. At the beginning of the month, supply and demand were in a stalemate game. In the middle of the month, as factories stabilized and destocked, the pressure on the supply side decreased, and magnesium prices showed a slight rebound at the end of the month.

Supply and demand side

As the Spring Festival approaches, the overall willingness of supply side factories to stabilize prices is strong, and they are steadily reducing inventory. Demand side customers are gradually stocking up in advance for the holiday period, and downstream procurement is showing a good situation this month. Downstream trade, based on its own situation, observes the market and prepares goods in an orderly manner, with actual customers mainly purchasing for essential needs.

From the perspective of supply and demand, this month has experienced a concentrated destocking, reducing inventory pressure on the factory side. With cost support, prices are expected to remain firm, and the possibility of a pullback may be small.

In terms of raw materials

After the pricing of raw material ferrosilicon was finalized in the bidding of Hebei Iron and Steel, the market direction became clear. Other steel mills used this as a reference to carry out a new round of ferrosilicon bidding and procurement. The bidding of major steel mills has been slowly advancing. In addition, there are news of price increases for raw materials such as electricity and transportation costs. There is still some support on the cost side, and some factories in certain regions have little inventory pressure. The fluctuating upward trend of futures market provides favorable support for the spot market. Recently, the spot price of ferrosilicon has been raised by about 50 yuan/ton. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, ferrosilicon (brand: FeSi75～B; The market price for grain size grade/mm: natural blocks in Ningxia region ranges from 6000-6100 yuan/ton, with an average market price of 6081 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.92%.

Raw material blue charcoal, the blue charcoal market is currently operating steadily, with a slight decrease in the average bidding price of block coal at the raw material end. The cost pressure on blue charcoal enterprises has slightly eased, and it is currently operating steadily. The Lantan market is operating steadily, with small material prices in the Shenmu area ranging from 750-800 yuan/ton. The production enthusiasm is still acceptable, and the market mentality is stable. There is slight pressure on inventory and shipment, and the export market volume may continue to shrink in the near future. The overall production pace is stable.

Future forecast

In summary, the current price of magnesium ingots is in a dilemma of rising and falling, with support on the cost side and difficulty in rebounding. But as the Spring Festival approaches and procurement slows down, it does not support price increases. Magnesium prices are expected to remain stable in the short term.

Recently, there has been a reduction in production and an increase in maintenance of domestic polyester staple fiber facilities, resulting in a significant decline in the industry’s operating load rate. The supply of goods has also decreased, which has driven favorable prices. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of January 20th, the average ex factory price of 1.4D * 38mm in Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions was 7318 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.69% from the beginning of the month.

In addition, the strong cost also supports the price of polyester staple fiber. Under the relay of many favorable factors, crude oil prices have risen continuously for several days, and the increase is significant. As of January 17th, the settlement price of the main contract of WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $77.39 per barrel, and the settlement price of the main contract of Brent crude oil futures was $80.79 per barrel.

The PTA spot market trend followed the rise of crude oil, and a 1.25 million ton PTA plant in South China was shut down for maintenance. In addition, the official announcement of maintenance plans for multiple PTA plants by major suppliers also boosted the PTA market. As of January 20th, the PTA market price in East China was 5081 yuan/ton, an increase of 6.08% from the beginning of the month.

But the demand side continues to drag down the price of polyester staple fibers, and downstream yarn factories are gradually shutting down and taking holidays, resulting in a decrease in demand. The atmosphere of the Spring Festival holiday is gradually becoming stronger, new orders are being placed slowly, market participants’ trading enthusiasm is decreasing, and their stocking mentality is cautious.

Business analysts believe that in the short term, demand will remain weak, downstream factories will gradually start holidays, production will gradually decrease, and there is a trend of weakening on the cost side. It is expected that the price of polyester staple fibers may decline.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, from January 10th to January 17th, the domestic butadiene market price increased from 11925 yuan/ton to 12462.5 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 4.51% during the cycle. This week, the butadiene market continued to rise. At the beginning of the week, affected by the rise in crude oil prices, holders had a strong mentality of supporting prices, and spot market prices rose significantly. Sinopec raised the ex factory price to 12500 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 500 yuan/ton. But as prices continue to rise, downstream high-level receiving capacity gradually declines. As the Spring Festival approaches, some pre holiday purchasing demand has been released downstream, driving an improvement in the atmosphere of the spot market. As of January 17th, the delivery price in Shandong region is between 12700-12900 yuan/ton.

Cost aspect: During this cycle, crude oil prices have risen significantly. On the one hand, the OPEC+production reduction agreement has been extended until the end of the first quarter, and some oil producing countries still have compensatory production cuts. The United States has increased sanctions on Russia, and there are strong concerns about supply shortages. The supply side of crude oil is supportive, and crude oil market prices have risen significantly. On the other hand, the instability of the situation in the Middle East still exists, and the arrival of winter cold waves in Europe and America is expected to further boost fuel demand, which is good news for the international oil market. Overall, the rate of change in crude oil during the cycle is continuously expanding in a positive direction. As of January 16th, the settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $78.68 per barrel. The settlement price of the main Brent crude oil futures contract is $81.29 per barrel.

Supply side: Sinopec’s various sales companies have raised the listed price of butadiene by 500 yuan/ton and implemented a price of 12500 yuan/ton. The 120000 tons/year butadiene plant of North Huajin has been restarted in October; Fujian United’s 180000 tons/year butadiene plant was shut down for maintenance on October 10th; Jilin Petrochemical’s 190000 ton plant shut down on August 25th and restarted on October 16th. Recently, the comprehensive operating rate of the domestic butadiene industry has not changed much, and the overall supply is relatively stable.

On the demand side: According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the overall market for styrene butadiene and butadiene rubber has strengthened this cycle, especially for butadiene rubber, which has seen a significant increase. Currently, low-priced sources of goods are difficult to find in the spot market, and the market atmosphere is cautious. Downstream terminal demand maintains rigid procurement, and the market atmosphere is strong. As of January 17th, the mainstream market price for BR9000 butadiene rubber in East China is around 14700 yuan/ton.

Market forecast: From a cost perspective, the recent strengthening of the crude oil market will drive a stronger atmosphere in the spot market. From a supply perspective, the butadiene market has been relatively stable in recent times, with high raw material prices on the demand side and a slight decline in downstream purchasing intentions. Currently, the demand for essential supplies is being replenished, and the market demand performance is relatively stable. Overall, the performance of the butadiene market is still relatively strong, lacking downstream support. It is expected that there will be limited room for further growth in the future, and the overall trend will remain high consolidation.