According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of October 17, 2024, the reference price of n-butanol in Shandong Province, China was 6833 yuan/ton, a decrease of 133 yuan/ton or 1.86% compared to the reference price of 7166 yuan/ton on October 10.

From the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, it can be seen that this week, the overall market situation of n-butanol in Shandong Province, China, showed a weak downward trend. The center of gravity of the n-butanol market has been gradually moving towards lower levels, with a price reduction of 100-200 yuan/ton during the week. As of October 18th, the reference price for n-butanol market in Shandong, China is around 6800-7000 yuan/ton.

Supply and demand situation: Currently, the overall supply of n-butanol in the market has increased, and there is a certain supply pressure on the supply side. Downstream demand is cautious, and supply and demand transmission is relatively slow. The overall supply and demand support for the n-butanol market is insufficient.

Market analysis in the future

At present, the overall trading atmosphere in the n-butanol market is light, and there is a strong wait-and-see sentiment in the market. The n-butanol data analyst from Shengyi Society believes that in the short term, the domestic n-butanol market will mainly adjust and operate in a narrow range, and the specific trend still needs to pay more attention to changes in supply and demand news.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the domestic price of LLDPE (7042) was 8258 yuan/ton on October 1st, and the average price was 8463 yuan/ton on October 15th, with a price increase of 2.48% during this period.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the domestic price of LDPE (2426H) was 10500 yuan/ton on October 1st, and the average price was 11150 yuan/ton on October 15th, with a price increase of 6.19% during this period.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the domestic price of HDPE (5000S) was 8125 yuan/ton on October 1st, and the average price was 8487 yuan/ton on October 15th, with a price increase of 4.46% during this period.

After the National Day holiday, the price of polyethylene showed a strong trend. During the National Day holiday, due to the tense situation in the Middle East, the crude oil market rose. After the holiday, the polyethylene market was boosted by positive news, and prices increased significantly. On the supply side, there has been an increase in maintenance equipment for enterprises, but there has been a reduction in the supply side. On the demand side, the demand for agricultural film in October has entered the peak season, and downstream enterprises have increased their operating load, gradually accumulating orders. Multiple favorable factors support the upward adjustment of the polyethylene market.

On October 16th, the polyethylene L2501 contract on the Dalian Commodity Exchange opened at 8180 yuan and closed at 8200 yuan, a decrease of 45 yuan, with a maximum of 8238 yuan and a minimum of 8180 yuan, a decrease of 0.55%.

Recently, international oil prices have been continuously falling, and there is insufficient cost support; The demand side is in the peak season, which provides support for the polyethylene market; The frequent emergence of macro policies is favorable for the polyethylene market. The price of polyethylene continues to rise, and the market has slowed down the transaction of high priced goods. It is expected that polyethylene will continue to have a strong trend, but the upward space is limited.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the toluene market first rose and then fell in the first half of October 2024, with an overall upward trend. On October 1st, the benchmark price of toluene was 5890 yuan/ton, and on October 15th, the benchmark price of toluene was 6050 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.72% during the period. This cycle coincided with the National Day holiday, during which the external market continued to rise. The toluene market made up for the post holiday gains, and the overall ex factory prices of main refineries increased. However, downstream follow-up was insufficient and lacked demand support, resulting in weak growth in the toluene market. After the holiday, there were more arrivals in the port market, and market supply increased. Under the influence of sufficient supply, the toluene market rose and then fell back, and the overall trading in the spot market was weak. Downstream wait-and-see sentiment was strong. As of October 15th, the mainstream price range for toluene in the East China region today is between 6050-6080 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan/ton from the previous period’s 6150-6180 yuan/ton.

On the cost side: The international oil price market has risen, and during China’s National Day holiday, international oil prices have significantly increased. On the one hand, the tense geopolitical situation in the Middle East has had an impact, which is good news for international oil prices. On the other hand, the supply of crude oil remains tight. The OPEC+2.2 million barrels per day production reduction before the end of November will still be effective, and some oil producing countries have stated that they will carry out compensatory production cuts. The supply shortage still exists, and the international crude oil price trend is rising. However, concerns about the global economy and demand outlook still exist in the market, coupled with the end of the US oil peak and the increase in US crude oil inventories suppressing the rise in crude oil prices. Overall, the trend of crude oil prices has risen during the cycle. As of October 14th, the settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $73.83 per barrel. The settlement price of the main Brent crude oil futures contract is $77.46 per barrel.

Supply side: Sinopec toluene quotation situation: Currently, the enterprise is operating normally, the production of the equipment is stable, the products are mostly self used, and the production and sales are stable. As of October 15th, East China Company quoted 6000 yuan/ton, North China Company quoted 6050 yuan/ton, South China Company quoted 6000-6050 yuan/ton, and Central China Company quoted 6100 yuan/ton.

Demand side: The external market for xylene continues to decline, and the demand support for toluene is relatively weak

On September 23rd, Sinopec Sales Company implemented a price of 7800 yuan/ton for xylene, which remained unchanged from the price on September 16th. The PX price continued to decline both inside and outside the cycle, with CFR China closing at $840-842/ton as of September 20th, a cumulative decrease of $6/ton from $834-836/ton on September 17th.

During this period, the Asian toluene market saw a slight decrease in external prices. As of October 14th, the Asian toluene market had a closing FOB Korea price of $740-742/ton in October, with a decrease of $11/ton during the period; The closing price of CFR China in October is 741-743 US dollars per ton, with a decrease of 2 US dollars per ton during the period.

Market forecast: Positive policies will drive the crude oil market higher, but due to insufficient downstream demand, there will be significant resistance to the rise of the toluene market. From the perspective of supply and demand, there has been a significant increase in supply in recent times. Holders of goods are actively shipping, while downstream procurement intentions are more cautious, maintaining a focus on replenishing essential inventory. Overall, the mentality of supply and demand game in the toluene market still exists, and the recent trend is mainly characterized by slight fluctuations

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, from October 1st to October 14th, the domestic butadiene market price decreased from 13700 yuan/ton to 13437.5 yuan/ton, with a price drop of 1.92% during the period. This cycle coincides with the National Day holiday, and the overall butadiene market is weak. Before the holiday, the overall trend of the market was relatively weak, and downstream purchasing intentions were more cautious, resulting in an overall decline in prices. After the holiday, the opening of the market was affected by the strengthening of the downstream synthetic rubber market, and spot market prices slightly increased. However, due to insufficient follow-up of downstream demand, the market’s wait-and-see atmosphere gradually rose, and the fundamentals weakened, causing the market to fall back. At the same time, due to the recent loose market supply, it has dragged down the mentality of holders and led to a wide decline in market prices. As of October 14th, the mainstream delivery price of butadiene in Shandong region is between 13300-13400 yuan/ton.

On the cost side, the international oil price trend is rising. As of the 9th, the settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States is $73.24 per barrel, and the settlement price of the main contract for Brent crude oil futures is $76.58 per barrel. During China’s National Day holiday, international oil prices have risen significantly. On the one hand, the tense geopolitical situation in the Middle East has had a positive impact on international oil prices. On the other hand, the supply of crude oil remains tight. The OPEC+2.2 million barrels per day production reduction before the end of November will still be effective, and some oil producing countries have stated that they will carry out compensatory production cuts. The supply shortage still exists, and the international crude oil price trend is rising. However, concerns about the global economy and demand outlook still exist in the market, coupled with the end of the US oil peak and the increase in US crude oil inventories suppressing the rise in crude oil prices. Overall, the trend of crude oil prices has risen during the cycle. As of October 11th, the settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $75.56 per barrel. The settlement price of the main Brent crude oil futures contract is $79.04 per barrel.

Supply side: The listed price of butadiene for various sales companies of Sinopec is currently 13500 yuan/ton. The Northern Huajin 120000 tons/year butadiene plant is scheduled to shut down for maintenance on July 12th and has been restarted since October; The 180000 tons/year butadiene plant of Fujian United was shut down for maintenance on October 10th. The 56000 ton butadiene unit of Qilu Petrochemical was shut down for maintenance on October 9th, and the downstream butadiene rubber unit was shut down simultaneously. Jilin Petrochemical’s 190000 ton plant shut down on August 25th and is expected to restart in late October. Recently, there has been little change in the comprehensive operating rate of the domestic butadiene industry, and the overall supply of butadiene is relatively stable.

Demand side: The downstream rubber market is expected to rebound and consolidate after the holiday. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of October 12th, the price of styrene butadiene rubber in the East China market was 17066 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.71% from 16616 yuan/ton on October 1st, and a decrease of 0.19% from the high point of 17100 yuan/ton during the cycle. The price of raw material butadiene has fallen from a high level, while the price of styrene has surged and fallen. The cost of styrene butadiene rubber still has some support. Downstream all steel tire starts low level operation; The overall production of styrene butadiene rubber remains low. The supply price of styrene butadiene rubber has been raised after the holiday, and as of October 12th, the mainstream market price of 1502 styrene butadiene rubber in Fushun, Jihua, Yangzi, and Qilu in East China is around 16900~1720 yuan/ton.

On Friday (October 11th), the closing price of butadiene in foreign markets was partially lowered: among them, the FOB price in South Korea was reported at 1525-1535 US dollars/ton; China CFR reports $1565-1575 per ton; European butadiene FOB Rotterdam closed at $1135-1145/ton; FD Northwest Europe closed at 1100-1110 euros/ton.

Market forecast: Due to the increase in supply in the near future, the overall atmosphere of the spot market is weak. In terms of demand, it has been heard that there are plans to restart some downstream rubber equipment recently, which may increase the demand for raw materials. The demand support is still acceptable. However, overall, the market atmosphere is still relatively weak due to the impact of loose supply, and it is expected that the market will maintain a stable to weak operation in the short term.

This week (10.7-10.12), the domestic price of ethyl acetate first rose and then fell. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of the 12th, the price of ethyl acetate was 6063.33 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.06% compared to the beginning of the week price of 6066.67 yuan/ton. The main reason for the weak consolidation of the ethyl acetate market is limited support from downstream demand, resulting in a decline in raw material prices.

The ethyl acetate market has been fluctuating this week. Returning after the holiday, downstream restocking sentiment is positive, with some manufacturers shipping smoothly. Ethyl acetate prices have risen, but raw material prices have fallen, and the negative impact on cost has led to a weakening of downstream chasing sentiment in the end market. Market trading slowed down in the later part of the week, and manufacturers’ quotes were lowered, resulting in a weak downward trend for ethyl acetate.

In the future, the upstream acetic acid market of ethyl acetate is mainly weak, with insufficient cost support; On the supply side, next week Anhui Huayi plant will increase its load, and the utilization rate of ethyl acetate production capacity will be improved; In terms of demand, downstream replenishment sentiment has weakened, market trading is limited, and there is a lack of favorable market conditions. It is expected that the short-term price of ethyl acetate will weaken and consolidate, and specific attention will be paid to changes in the upstream market and downstream follow-up.