According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the PP market was weak in early September, with prices of various brand products experiencing a narrow decline. As of the afternoon of September 10th, the mainstream offer price for wire drawing by domestic producers and traders was around 7678.57 yuan/ton, with a decrease of -1.38% compared to the beginning of the month.

Price trend

In terms of raw materials:

In terms of international crude oil, the current market continues to follow the end of the peak oil season in the United States at the end of August, and the decline in oil prices has affected the loosening of the upstream of PP in the far end. However, due to the expectation of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and the postponement of OPEC+’s production plans, there are still opportunities for a rebound in the future. There is significant pressure on propylene shipments in the early stages, with limited improvement in market momentum, and there is still a recent decline. The price of propane is consolidating weakly, while the domestic supply of methanol has recovered, leading to a decline in the first half of the year. The cost support for PDH and methanol to PP production has weakened. Overall, in early September, the support of various raw materials for PP has cooled down.

Supply side:

In the first ten days, the load level of domestic PP enterprises continued the pattern of large stability and small fluctuations in the early stage, and the industry load remained stable at around 75% within ten days. The maintenance of enterprise equipment and resumption of work are intertwined, and the supply is trending towards a flat trend. At present, the commercial inventory of PP in China is stable at around 720000 tons, and the supply is generally abundant. Some enterprises in the southern and central regions of China have maintenance plans in the future, and there is an expectation of narrow supply contraction. Overall, the supply side provides sufficient support for PP spot prices.

In terms of demand:

The heating rate of PP demand side in early September was relatively slow. The load on terminal enterprises has increased, and the consumption of woven bags such as fertilizers and cement has initially increased. The willingness of plastic weaving enterprises to build warehouses has also increased. At the same time, the follow-up range of film companies and injection molding orders also followed suit. However, the weak market trading economy and intense macro bearish news may affect the confidence of downstream enterprises in the future. The demand side has limited support for PP spot goods.

Future forecast

In early September, the domestic PP market prices were relatively weak. From a fundamental perspective, the comprehensive support of upstream raw materials for PP has weakened, and the rise in consumption at the beginning of the peak season has not yet provided sufficient support for PP spot prices. The current market guidance is not yet clear, and under the influence of macroeconomic and upstream weakness, whether the demand for “Golden September” can further expand is the key to revitalizing the market sentiment in the future.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the average price of ammonium sulfate in the domestic market on September 9th was 911 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.62% compared to the average price of 926 yuan/ton on September 1st.

2、 Market analysis

Since September, the overall price of ammonium sulfate in the domestic market has been weak and declining. The operating rate of coking enterprises remains stable, while the operating rate of internal level enterprises has decreased. Downstream demand has weakened, inquiries have decreased, and there is a resistance to high prices. The recent export market has not met expectations, coupled with the decline in urea prices, which has a negative impact on ammonium sulfate. As of September 9th, the mainstream ex factory quotation for coking grade ammonium sulfate in Shandong region is around 900 yuan/ton. Domestic grade ammonium sulfate, the mainstream ex factory quotation in Shandong region is around 905-935 yuan/ton.

3、 Future forecast

An ammonium sulfate analyst from Shengyi Society believes that the ammonium sulfate market has recently experienced narrow fluctuations and consolidation. At present, the downstream purchasing intention is not strong, and the export market is flat. It is expected that the domestic ammonium sulfate market price will experience a slight consolidation in the short term.

The phthalic anhydride market fell again in September

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of September 6th, the price of phthalic anhydride produced by phthalic anhydride was 7462.50 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.65% from the price of 7587.50 yuan/ton on September 1st. In September, the price of ortho xylene dropped by 200 yuan/ton, and the cost of phthalic anhydride decreased, causing a further decline in the phthalic anhydride market. In September, domestic ortho phthalic anhydride was priced at 7300-7500 yuan/ton before leaving the factory, while domestic nano phthalic anhydride was priced at 7100-7300 yuan/ton before leaving the factory.

Supply side: Stable supply of goods

The operation of domestic phthalic anhydride plants is temporarily stable, the domestic phthalic anhydride operating rate is stable, the spot supply of phthalic anhydride is sufficient, the sales situation of phthalic anhydride manufacturers is average, the price of industrial naphthalene is strongly supported, the naphthalene phthalic anhydride market has slightly decreased, the ortho benzene market has fallen, the cost has decreased, and the ortho benzene phthalic anhydride market has fallen.

The cost of raw material ortho benzene has further decreased

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of September 6th, the price of ortho benzene was 7700 yuan/ton, a decrease of 200 yuan/ton or 2.53% from the end of August when the price was 7900 yuan/ton; The price of ortho benzene decreased by 9.41% from 8500 yuan/ton in early August. Since August, the price of ortho phthalic anhydride has continued to decline, and the cost of ortho phthalic anhydride has decreased. There is significant downward pressure on ortho phthalic anhydride. Industrial naphthalene manufacturers are reducing their burden, supply is tight, industrial naphthalene prices are stabilizing strongly, and there is still a willingness for the rise of naphthalene phthalic anhydride.

Weak demand side: DOP market trend falls again

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of September 6th, the price of plasticizer DOP was 8501.25 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.58% from the DOP price of 8726.25 yuan/ton on September 1st at the beginning of the month. Jinjiu’s condition is poor, terminal demand is lower than expected, downstream customers have poor enthusiasm for placing orders, plasticizer transactions are light, and plasticizer DOP prices have fallen. The demand for phthalic anhydride is weak.

Future forecast

According to the data analyst of Shengyi Society’s phthalic anhydride products, in terms of cost, the price of ortho xylene has fallen, and the cost of phthalic anhydride has decreased; In terms of demand, the downstream DOP market has fallen again, and the demand for phthalic anhydride is weak. It is expected that the neighboring phthalic anhydride market will weakly decline in the future.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic lithium carbonate market continued to operate weakly in early September. On September 4th, the average price of battery grade lithium carbonate was 80200 yuan/ton, a decrease of 11.7% from the same period last month when it was 91000 yuan/ton. The average price of industrial grade lithium carbonate is 77800 yuan/ton, a decrease of 11.99% from the same period last month when it was 88400 yuan/ton.

It is worth noting that the weekly inventory of lithium carbonate has experienced a long-awaited decline. The data shows that as of the week ending August 30th, the weekly inventory of lithium carbonate samples decreased by 1256 tons month on month to 131304 tons, marking the first time since the end of March that the inventory has been depleted. Although inventory has decreased to some extent, the overall situation is multifaceted, and the contradiction of inventory accumulation has not been resolved.

On the demand side: According to research data from the Da Dong Times Think Tank, the power and energy storage production of Chinese battery factories in September 2024 was 100.2GWh, and the production in August was 94.1GWh, an increase of 6.5% compared to the previous month. The production of consumer batteries in the Chinese market is 9.1 GWh. In September, the production of power, energy storage, and consumer batteries in the Chinese market was around 110 GWh, while in September, the production of power, energy storage, and consumer batteries in the global market was around 135 GWh.

Business Society’s lithium carbonate data analyst believes that although the weekly inventory of lithium carbonate has decreased, the total inventory is still at a high level, and downstream demand is expected to increase. It is expected that lithium carbonate will fluctuate weakly in the near future.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of September 4, 2024, the reference price of n-butanol in Shandong Province, China is 7000 yuan/ton. Compared with August 31 (reference price of 7116 yuan/ton), the price has decreased by 116 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.64%. Compared with August 1 (reference price of 7933 yuan/ton), the price has decreased by 933 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10.71%.

From the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, it can be seen that in August, the overall n-butanol market in Shandong Province, China, has been declining. Entering September, the overall atmosphere of the n-butanol market has not improved significantly, and the focus of the n-butanol market continues to move towards lower levels. Some factories in Shandong have once again lowered the price of n-butanol, with a reduction of 50-150 yuan/ton. As of September 4th, the n-butanol market in Shandong is expected to be around 6950-7050 yuan/ton.

Analysis of Factors Influencing the Market Situation of n-Butanol

In terms of demand: In the first week of September, downstream demand for n-butanol performed poorly, with strong sentiment in the n-butanol market. Operators were cautious in their operations, and demand transmission was slow, resulting in insufficient overall support for n-butanol demand.

On the supply side: As we enter September, the overall supply of n-butanol in the market is relatively loose, and some factories are gradually starting to operate. The operating rate of n-butanol has increased. At the beginning of the month, the overall supply pressure of n-butanol has not decreased, and the support provided by the supply side to the market is weak.

Market price situation of n-butanol

Region/ Product/ September 4th

Shandong region/ N-butanol/ 6950-7050 yuan/ton nearby

North China region/ N-butanol/ Around 7000-7050 yuan/ton

South China region/ N-butanol/ Around 7300-7350 yuan/ton

East China region/ N-butanol/ Around 7100-7300 yuan/ton

Market analysis in the future

At present, the trading atmosphere of n-butanol in the market is average, and the negotiation atmosphere in the market is slightly weak. The n-butanol data analyst from Shengyi Society believes that in the short term, the n-butanol market in Shandong Province is mainly weak and stable, and the specific trend still needs to pay more attention to changes in supply and demand news.