According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, from November 28th to December 5th, MTBE prices rose from 5425 yuan/ton to 5475 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 0.92% during the period, a month on month increase of 3.79%, and a year-on-year decrease of 16.09%. The domestic MTBE market is stable and consolidating. After entering December, there are some pending delivery orders for gasoline, and there is a high enthusiasm for purchasing gasoline raw materials. At the same time, there are also many new gasoline vehicle and ship orders, which provide positive support for the relevant gasoline raw material market, and the market remains firmly consolidated.

On the cost side, in terms of crude oil: International oil prices have fallen, and the main negative factors are: the tense atmosphere in the Middle East has eased again, the increase in US refined oil inventories has exceeded expectations, and the market is still concerned about weak demand prospects. As of December 4th, the Brent price was $72.31 per barrel.

From the perspective of demand and downstream gasoline terminal demand, gasoline transactions are still relatively active, and there are some orders waiting to be delivered, which provides some support. Short term MTBE demand is influenced by favorable factors.

Supply side: Narrow fluctuations and consolidation of resource supply side. Short term domestic MTBE supply is affected by bearish factors.

As of December 4th, the closing price of the Asian MTBE market has increased by $20.4/ton compared to the previous trading day, and FOB Singapore closed at $723.69-725.69/ton. The closing price of the European MTBE market increased by 0.25 US dollars/ton compared to the previous trading day, and FOB ARA closed at 825.99-826.49 US dollars/ton. The closing price of the MTBE market in the United States increased by $47.35/ton compared to the previous trading day, and the FOB Gulf offshore price closed at $807.88-808.23/ton (228.11-228.21 cents/gallon).

According to the forecast of supply and demand game in the future, MTBE analysts from Shengyi Society believe that the domestic MTBE market will experience a narrow consolidation in the short term.

1、 Price trend

Overall trend: The price of acrylic acid market has shown a fluctuating trend recently. For example, from November 25th to December 3rd, 2024, the average market price of acrylic acid in the national mainstream market fluctuated between 6668.75 yuan and 6762.50 yuan/ton, with slight fluctuations from November 27th to December 3rd.

Specific price: As of December 4th, the benchmark price of acrylic acid in Shengyi Society is 6862.50 yuan/ton, which is the same as the beginning of this month. The price of acrylic acid varies among different manufacturers and production areas.

2、 Supply and demand situation

1. Supply side:

The recent maintenance and resumption of production of acrylic acid plants have had an impact on the supply side. Due to maintenance or reduced load operation, some acrylic acid plants have maintained a narrowing trend in the utilization rate of acrylic acid production capacity. However, as the maintenance equipment gradually resumes production, the supply side is expected to release more capacity, but the specific release speed and scale still need to be observed.

At the same time, some newly added production capacity is about to be put into operation, which will further increase market supply. However, due to the uncertainty of the production progress and capacity release of new capacity, the impact on market supply is still difficult to determine.

2. Demand side:

In terms of downstream demand, factories are basically maintaining long-term inventory consumption, and inquiries about low-priced sources are generally average. Due to the expected release on the supply side, but the downstream demand has not shown significant growth, the market has a strong wait-and-see sentiment.

The main downstream application areas of acrylic acid include coatings, adhesives, textile auxiliaries, water treatment agents, etc. The demand situation in these fields will directly affect the market demand for acrylic acid. If downstream demand continues to be sluggish, it will exert downward pressure on the price of acrylic acid.

3、 Production cost

As the main raw material of acrylic acid, the price fluctuation of propylene directly affects the production cost of acrylic acid. Recently, the market price of propylene has been relatively stable, with a national average price ranging from 6700 yuan/ton to 6850 yuan/ton. The specific price depends on the region and trading conditions.

4、 Market competition

The competition in the acrylic acid market is fierce, and companies may adopt price reduction strategies to compete for market share. However, in situations of oversupply and insufficient demand, price reduction strategies may not be effective. In addition, some companies may reduce costs and enhance competitiveness by improving product quality, optimizing production processes, and other means, thereby affecting market prices.

In summary, the short-term acrylic acid market may show a trend of stagnant consolidation and operation. There are expectations of release on the supply side, but downstream demand growth is weak, market competition is fierce, and there is uncertainty in the macroeconomic environment. Therefore, investors and downstream enterprises need to closely monitor market dynamics and relevant information in order to make timely and reasonable judgments and decisions.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic 1 # lead ingot market rose in November 2024, with an average price of 16460 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month and 17165 yuan/ton at the end of the month, a monthly increase of 4.28%.

On December 3rd, the lead commodity index was 105.68, up 0.91 points from yesterday, down 21.14% from the highest point of 134.01 points during the cycle (2016-11-29), and up 41.61% from the lowest point of 74.63 points on March 19th, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to present)

K-bar chart of commodity prices, using the concept of price trend K-line, in the form of a bar chart, reflects the weekly or monthly price changes. Investors can make buying and selling investments based on the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates an increase; Green indicates a decline; The height of the K-pillar represents the range of rise and fall. After the lead price rose in January 2024, the trend in the first half of the year was strong and volatile. It continued to rise from March to July, and after a correction from August to October, it resumed its upward trend at the end of the year due to tight spot prices. Looking at the weekly trend, there is a split of gains and losses.

The lead ingot market rose strongly in the first half of November, followed by a short-term correction and stabilization. In the second half of the month, the market continued to consolidate and rise, with an overall upward trend.

On the raw material side, the price of lead concentrate has increased. On the refining end, some smelters have reduced production due to environmental inspections. For example, a refinery in Anhui is expected to reduce production by about 1000 tons, and a refinery in Yunnan is expected to reduce production by 20%. Multiple domestic refineries are facing tight supply of maintenance and spot goods. In terms of new production, Qinghai Refinery has plans to increase production.

On the supply and demand side, the total supply of lead ingots decreased year-on-year, reflecting a certain degree of weak consumption. Recently, some lead-acid battery companies have plans to reduce production, and the impact needs further observation.

Overall, the lead market supply in November 2024 was affected by production cuts, resulting in weak demand. However, the international market demand was good, leading to a slight increase in prices. Expected to maintain a high level of operation in the short term.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the PP market remained generally stable in November, with some brand products experiencing a narrow price increase in the latter half of the year. As of November 30th, the mainstream offer price for wire drawing by domestic producers and traders is around 7621.43 yuan/ton, a rise or fall of+0.57% compared to the price level at the beginning of November.

Price trend

In terms of raw materials:

In terms of international crude oil, the market’s demand panic eased in early November due to the extension of OPEC’s production reduction plan of 2.2 million barrels per day until the end of December. However, the subsequent mid month US election disrupted oil prices, smoothing out some of the favorable production cuts. The expected easing of the geopolitical situation at the end of the month has led to fluctuations in crude oil prices within the month, providing moderate support for the upstream of PP in the far end. In terms of propylene, domestic supply was first tight and then relaxed, with production capacity returning and imported goods entering the port for fermentation. Buyers tended to be cautious in their operations, and prices remained stagnant after rising. Propane’s upstream decline has stabilized within the month, inventory levels are not high, the market is relatively stable, and the cost of PDH production direction has leveled off. Overall, the raw materials for PP in November were stable or fluctuating, with moderate support on the cost side.

Supply side:

In November, the load level of domestic PP enterprises continued the downward trend from the previous period. Prior to this month, Zhejiang Petrochemical and Guangzhou Petrochemical, as well as Donghua Energy and CNOOC Shell, entered the plant maintenance plan in mid month. At the end of the month, Hebei Haiwei and Lianhong Xinke production lines underwent load reduction maintenance, reducing the overall industry load from 76.5% at the beginning of the month to below 68% at present. Domestic PP shipments have contracted significantly, while inventory levels have decreased from 765000 tons to 680000 tons. Although the supply is still abundant, some sources of goods have experienced structural contraction. Overall, the supply side provides strong support for PP spot prices.

In terms of demand:

The demand for PP in November remained stable with some weakness. At the beginning of the month, the consumption level of woven bags such as fertilizers, cement, and rice remained stable. Affected by seasonality, some industry enterprises have experienced a slight decline in production, and the consumption level of plastic weaving has narrowly declined, resulting in a cooling of their willingness to hold positions; The consumption of pipes in the early stage has slightly rebounded due to the stimulation of real estate related policies, and the positive effects have gradually dissipated within the month; The consumption of BOPP film enterprises is strong, and the raw material reserves of terminal enterprises are generally stable with some increase. Overall, there are narrow fluctuations in various aspects of the demand side, which are generally weak and stable.

Future forecast

In November, the domestic PP market prices fluctuated narrowly and rose at the end of the month. Fundamentally speaking, the overall performance of upstream raw materials in supporting PP is average. However, the supply side maintenance continued to be released within the month, and there was a tight supply situation in some parts of the market. However, according to consumer feedback, industry players are cautious about future terminal consumption and are concerned about the offline production of new capacity at the end of the year. Trading on the market is average and there has been no large-scale price chasing. In the short term, it is expected that PP prices will remain stable with some increase.

Aluminum prices in November will experience a “V” decline

Aluminum prices remained strong in early November, showing a strong performance. Recently, aluminum prices have fallen, and aluminum prices have been fluctuating in November. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of November 29, 2024, the average price of aluminum ingots in the East China market in China was 20373.33 yuan/ton, a decrease of 6.20% from the market average price of 21720 yuan/ton on November 8.

In mid to late November, aluminum prices showed a weak downward trend for the following reasons:

1. Downstream is weak in accepting high priced aluminum ingots

After the previous cost push, aluminum prices are currently at a relatively high level for the year. In the overall environment where domestic real estate terminal demand is not optimistic, the downstream has limited tolerance for high prices.

2. There is an expectation of weakening export demand

On November 15, 2024, the Ministry of Finance and the State Administration of Taxation issued a notice on adjusting the export tax rebate policy. Starting from December 1, 2024, all export tax rebates for aluminum products will be cancelled, involving 24 tax codes such as aluminum strips, aluminum foils, aluminum tubes, aluminum tube accessories, and some aluminum bar profiles.

The partial 301 tariff policy of the United States came into effect on September 27th. This includes a 100% tariff on Chinese electric vehicles, a 50% tariff on Chinese solar cells, and a 25% tariff on Chinese steel, aluminum, electric vehicle batteries, and key minerals.

The cancellation of export tax rebates for downstream aluminum products in China and the implementation of some 301 tariff policies in the United States. Prior to this, under the guidance of the new US president and tax increase policies, the overseas landing costs of exported products have been raised from a domestic perspective. The export demand of the aluminum industry chain is expected to weaken.

3. Doubts about the sustainability of cost support

Although the short-term cost support for aluminum ingots remains strong, the sustainability of cost support is questionable. The fundamentals of proximal alumina remain favorable, but it has also been reflected in prices, with even alumina prices exceeding expectations and experiencing excessive increases. Currently, the profit window for alumina exports is gradually closing, and due to high prices, there will be more production capacity in the future, and long-term excess pressure will gradually emerge; The risk of alumina price pullback has increased, and the cost support risk of aluminum ingot prices has intensified.