According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic TDI prices fell in a stepwise manner in September. At the beginning of the month, the average TDI market price was 14100 yuan/ton. On September 30th, the TDI price was 13050 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7.45% during the month and a year-on-year decrease of 27.63%.

In September, the domestic TDI market operated weakly, with prices falling sharply. The TDI market in September was greatly affected by the demand side, with weak downstream demand. In order to stimulate sales, supplier prices continued to loosen, and the focus of transactions continued to shift downwards. In the atmosphere of buying up and not buying down, the market has a strong wait-and-see atmosphere,

The upstream toluene market has experienced a wide decline, with the domestic average price of toluene at around 5909 yuan/ton as of September 30th, a decrease of 13.61% from the price of 6840 yuan/ton on September 1st. The crude oil market trend is weak this month, and the overall market environment is bearish. Under the downstream wait-and-see mentality, market trading is clearly sluggish. The main refineries have repeatedly lowered their ex factory prices, and local refining enterprises have continuously lowered their quotations. Downstream companies are observing and the purchasing enthusiasm is generally weak.

Market analysis shows that the TDI data analyst from Shengyi Society believes that throughout September, the TDI market was in a state of strong supply and weak demand. The downstream market performed poorly in terms of demand, maintaining the intention to purchase for essential needs. Although there is a demand for stocking up in the downstream near the holiday, the overall demand is still difficult to increase, and the demand side is still weak. It is expected that the TDI market will operate weakly in the short term, and specific attention should be paid to downstream purchasing follow-up.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the price of acetic acid remained stable on September 30th, with an average market price of 3250 yuan/ton in the East China region, unchanged from yesterday’s price and a decrease of 2.99% from the beginning of the month.

The acetic acid market continues to operate steadily, and enterprise quotations remain unchanged. On the supply side, the acetic acid plant maintains its initial load, and the market supply of goods is stable. Before the holiday, the mentality of enterprises is relatively weak, and negotiations for shipment are the main focus; On the demand side, downstream stocking sentiment is average, and we will continue to follow up on demand. The supply and demand on site are relatively balanced, and the price of acetic acid remains stable.

On September 30th, the market prices of acetic acid in various regions are as follows:

Region/ September 29th/ On September 30th/ Rise and fall

South China region/ 3100 yuan/ton/ 3100 yuan/ton/ 0

North China region/ 3150 yuan/ton/ 3150 yuan/ton/ 0

Shandong region/ 3150 yuan/ton/ 3150 yuan/ton/ 0

Jiangsu region/ 2875 yuan/ton/ 2875 yuan/ton/ 0

Zhejiang region/ 2975 yuan/ton/ 2975 yuan/ton/ 0

The upstream raw material methanol market has risen narrowly. On September 30th, the average price in the domestic market was 2577.50 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.35% compared to yesterday’s price of 2518.33 yuan/ton. Macro positive support, the domestic methanol market continues to rise. At the same time, there is a significant destocking of port inventory, and port methanol prices are relatively strong, with methanol prices remaining firm before the holiday.

On September 30th, the downstream acetic anhydride market remained stable, with an average ex factory price of 5472.50 yuan/ton, unchanged from yesterday’s price. The upstream acetic acid market remains stable, and the cost support for acetic anhydride is still acceptable. Downstream demand is expected to follow up before the holiday, and the market trading atmosphere is relatively weak. The acetic anhydride market is running steadily and cautiously.

Market forecast: According to the acetic acid analyst from Shengyi Society, the acetic acid plant is currently operating normally, the market supply is stable, and there is still pressure on manufacturers to sell; Downstream demand is average, and market trading is mainly based on demand. The atmosphere in the market is deadlocked, and it is expected that the acetic acid market will consolidate and operate after the holiday, with prices possibly weak. We will pay attention to downstream follow-up in the future.

The market for ethyl acetate in September showed a strong upward trend. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of September 29th, the average production price of ethyl acetate was 6066.67 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan/ton compared to the beginning of the month price of 6016.67 yuan/ton, with an overall increase of 0.83%. The main reason for the increase in ethyl acetate prices is due to favorable demand support, good market trading direction, and a rising supply mentality.

Market analysis: This month, the market price of ethyl acetate first fell and then rose. In the first half of the year, the price of raw material acetic acid declined, with a negative impact on the cost side. At the same time, downstream demand was insufficient, and the market trading atmosphere was light, resulting in a downward adjustment of ethyl ester prices; In the second half of the year, the demand side supported the market, downstream buyers actively entered the market, replenishment demand improved before and after the holiday, and enterprise shipments were smooth. The price of ethyl acetate continued to rise, but due to the stable upstream market, the price was transmitted to the end market, which to some extent suppressed the increase in ethyl acetate prices.

According to the Business Society Acetic Acid Commodity Market Analysis System, as of September 29th, the price was 3250.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.99% compared to the acetic acid price of 3350.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month. The raw material side acetic acid market is weak and consolidating, with insufficient cost support, which has limited boost to ethyl acetate.

Looking at the future market, the price of ethyl acetate is currently stable, and downstream purchasing enthusiasm has weakened. Follow up on demand is the main focus when entering the market. The price of raw material acetic acid remains stable, providing average support for the ethyl acetate market. Pre holiday market trading is gradually returning to a flat state, and it is expected that the ethyl acetate market will operate narrowly in the future. It is recommended to pay attention to the price execution of raw material acetic acid and ethyl acetate manufacturers.

This week (9.23-9.27), the domestic price of ethyl acetate continued to rise. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of the 27th, the price of ethyl acetate was 6066.67 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.66% compared to the beginning of the week price of 6026.67 yuan/ton. Due to the favorable support of downstream demand and the positive attitude of suppliers, the price of ethyl acetate has slightly increased.

Market analysis: This week, the ethyl acetate market is trending towards strong consolidation. On the raw material side, the price of acetic acid remains stable and the cost support is still acceptable; On the demand side, downstream companies are actively stocking up before the holiday, and enterprise factory shipments are improving. Market quotations are rising, while the supply of ethyl acetate in the market is tight. Upstream companies are observing steadily, and the market mentality is strong. The market for ethyl acetate has risen during the week.

In the future, the upstream acetic acid market for ethyl acetate will remain stable, with little impact on costs, and the ethyl acetate market will adopt a wait-and-see attitude; On the supply side, the utilization rate of ethyl acetate production capacity is not high, and there is currently no inventory pressure affecting it; The short-term demand support from downstream is good, and the market sentiment is optimistic. It is expected that the price of ethyl acetate will continue to be strong and consolidate before the holiday. Specific attention should be paid to changes in the upstream market and downstream follow-up.

The price of ethylene glycol decreased in September

The price of ethylene glycol began to decline in September. According to data from Shengyi Society, as of September 26th, the average price of domestic oil to ethylene glycol was 4525 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.28% from September 1st. The prices in each region are as follows:

On September 26, 2024, the operating price of ethylene glycol at the port was between 4500-4540 yuan/ton, and the spot contract basis slightly increased during the day. This week, the paper cargo basis quotation was+38 to+43; In October, the base price quotation will be+38 to+43 yuan/ton; The base price for November is+42 to+46 yuan/ton.

On September 26th, the price of coal to ethylene glycol remained stable, with prices in the northwest region ranging from 4180-4300 yuan/ton, including taxes.

On September 25, 2024, the external price of ethylene glycol was as follows: the landed price in China was $544/ton, and the landed price in Southeast Asia was $535/ton.

List of Ethylene Glycol Port Inventory Data for September

As of September 26, 2024, the total spot inventory of ethylene glycol in the main ports of East China was 553400 tons, a decrease of 119900 tons compared to the total spot inventory of 673300 tons on August 29.

On September 25, 2024, the main flow storage area of Zhangjiagang Port shipped about 9100 tons of ethylene glycol, while the two main flow storage areas of Taicang shipped about 5450 tons of ethylene glycol.

Overview of Ethylene Glycol Fundamentals

Inventory changes: The absolute inventory of ethylene glycol at the port remains relatively low, with continuous destocking in the early stages. This week, inventory has slightly rebounded, mainly due to the delayed arrival of ships caused by typhoon weather in the early stages.

Device dynamics: The restart time of Zhenhai Refining and Chemical Plant has been postponed to October; Zhejiang Petrochemical, Yangzi Petrochemical, Shenghong Refining and Chemical and other facilities have been restarted; The load of the 1.8 million ton plant in Shaanxi has gradually returned to normal operation from 70%, and subsequent plants will restart one after another. The industry’s production will fluctuate and rebound. A 300000 ton synthetic gas plant in Inner Mongolia is expected to produce around the end of September.

Downstream polyester plant: The recovery of the plant was relatively concentrated this week. After a plant in Jiangyin was shut down due to a typhoon in mid month, it has already recovered to a higher load this week. In addition, other plants have been opened for maintenance or increased in load.

Future expectations

Driven by favorable domestic macro conditions, the raw material sector has seen a significant increase, and the polyester sector as a whole has rebounded. In addition, inventory is at a relatively low level, prices have fallen below the previous volatility range, and market competition has intensified.

On the demand side, there may be a peak season that falls short of expectations, resulting in limited improvement in demand. At present, macro factors have a significant impact on prices, and it is expected that ethylene glycol prices will mainly fluctuate in the short term.