1、 Price trend

According to data monitored by Shengyi Society, as of November 12th, the average price of industrial grade high-quality cyclohexane in China this week was 7833.33 yuan/ton, which was stable compared to the same period last week. The price of cyclohexane remained stable this week, with manufacturers mainly offering discounts and taking orders, and active shipments. Downstream demand is still acceptable, and inventory is slowly being consumed. Overall, the market procurement enthusiasm is still acceptable.

2、 Market analysis

In terms of cost: This week, the pure benzene market mainly operated weakly, with insufficient market purchasing power and manufacturers lowering prices, resulting in a narrow and weak operation. Pure benzene lacked support on the cost side of cyclohexane. On November 12th, the East China pure benzene market experienced a habitual decline in negotiations, with low-end purchasing power improving and contract traders actively trading.

3、 Future forecast

The cyclohexane analyst from Shengyi Society believes that the short-term cyclohexane market price is expected to remain stable with a moderate to strong trend.

Recently (11.1-11.11), the market price of Shunding rubber has been weak and declining. According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of November 11th, the market price of Shunding rubber in East China was 15030 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.53% from 15580 yuan/ton on November 1st. The price of raw material butadiene has dropped significantly, and the center of gravity of butadiene rubber has shifted downwards; Shunding rubber production has slightly increased; The downstream tire production is generally stable. Shunding rubber suppliers have lowered their supply prices, and merchants have adjusted their quotes. As of November 11th, the mainstream quotes for Shunding in Qilu, Daqing, Sichuan, and Yangtze in East China are 14850~15250 yuan/ton.

Recently, the price of butadiene has continued to decline, and the cost support for butadiene rubber has weakened. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of November 11th, the price of butadiene was 10937 yuan/ton, a decrease of 11.26% from 12325 yuan/ton on November 1st.

Recently (11.1-11.11), the overall start-up rate of domestic butadiene rubber plants has slightly increased to 6.60%. Qilu Petrochemical recently restarted and Zhejiang Petrochemical stopped for maintenance, resulting in a slight increase in pressure on the supply side of butadiene rubber.

Demand side: Downstream tire production has started to narrow down, and demand is mainly supported by the rigid demand of the butadiene rubber market. As of November 7th, the operating load of semi steel tires in domestic tire enterprises is around 7.9%; The operating load of all steel tires in tire enterprises in Shandong region is about 60%.

Market forecast: From a fundamental perspective, analysts from Shengyi Society believe that the price of raw material butadiene will significantly fall, and the cost support for butadiene rubber will weaken; Shunding rubber production remains at a low level, with a slight increase in supply pressure; In the near future, downstream construction has been adjusted steadily, and there is a slight resistance to the high price supply. In general, the market of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber is dominated by weak shocks in the short term.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the domestic price of LLDPE (7042) was 8475 yuan/ton on November 1st, and the average price was 8541 yuan/ton on November 7th, with a price increase of 0.79% during this period.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the domestic price of LDPE (2426H) was 10816 yuan/ton on November 1st, and the average price was 10733 yuan/ton on November 7th, with a price drop of 0.77% during this period.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the domestic price of HDPE (2426H) was 8475 yuan/ton on November 1st, and the average price was 8500 yuan/ton on November 7th, with a price increase of 0.29% during this period.

Starting from November, the prices of polyethylene products have fluctuated, with slight increases in linear and low-pressure product prices, and a weak trend in high-pressure product prices. Positive domestic policies have been released, and there is a positive sentiment within the market. We are exploring ways to push up prices, which has supported the polyethylene market. The supply pressure of LDPE is expected to increase, and due to the conversion of some EVA units to LDPE, the LDPE market trend is relatively weak. The reduction of domestic maintenance facilities in November and December, coupled with the gradual production of new capacity, has led to an increase in supply expectations, limiting the upward space for polyethylene. The peak season for agricultural film is coming to an end, and the increase in orders is gradually slowing down, with demand lower than the same period.

On November 7th, the polyethylene L2501 contract on the Dalian Commodity Exchange opened at 8187 yuan and closed at 8270 yuan, up 56 yuan, with a high of 8285 yuan and a low of 8138 yuan, up 0.68%. Recently, the trend of polyethylene futures has been strong, supporting the spot market.

Expected increase in supply; In November, the demand for agricultural film and pipe materials gradually weakened, while the demand for packaging film was relatively good. It is expected that polyethylene will mainly fluctuate and weaken.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the average price of ammonium sulfate in the domestic market on November 7th was 808 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4.90% from the average price of 850 yuan/ton on November 1st.

2、 Market analysis

This week, the price of ammonium sulfate in the domestic market has weakened and declined, and the focus of transactions has shifted downwards. The operating rate of coking enterprises remains stable, with a slight increase in the operating rate at the domestic level. This week, there has been a decrease in downstream inquiries and a weakening in demand, with many adopting a cautious attitude. At present, the export market of ammonium sulfate is not performing well and will continue to operate weakly in the short term. As of November 7th, the mainstream ex factory quotation for coking grade ammonium sulfate in Shandong region is around 760 yuan/ton. Domestic grade ammonium sulfate, the mainstream factory price in Shandong region is around 800-860 yuan/ton.

3、 Future forecast

An ammonium sulfate analyst from Shengyi Society believes that the market for ammonium sulfate has been weak recently, resulting in a decline in bidding prices. At present, there is no good news in the market, and downstream purchases are mainly seeking low prices, resulting in sluggish market transactions. It is expected that the domestic ammonium sulfate market price will continue to weaken and decline in the short term.

Price trend

According to the bulk ranking data from Shengyi Society, the domestic PC market experienced a narrow decline in early November, with some spot prices of certain brands falling below pre holiday levels. As of October 31st, the mixed benchmark price of Business Society PC was around 15983.33 yuan/ton, with a price increase or decrease of -0.10% compared to the beginning of October.

Cause analysis

On the supply side: Recently, the overall operating rate of PC in China has limited changes, and there are maintenance plans in Cangzhou Dahua. The industry average operating rate has narrowly fallen from around 81% at the beginning of the month to 79.3%. The weekly production of PC remains at a super high level of over 60000 tons in the medium and long term, with abundant on-site supply and a profound supply-demand mismatch pattern. Last week, the loose supply pattern remained unchanged, and there was little positive news on the supply side. Manufacturers were unable to raise prices, and factory pricing was under pressure to be lowered. At the same time, the future maintenance plan is sparse, and the market supply side continues to drag down PC prices.

In terms of raw materials, it can be seen from the above chart that the domestic price of bisphenol A stopped falling and stabilized in early November. The market for phenol and acetone, the direct raw materials of bisphenol A, has been weak and consolidated, with average support for the market. The downstream PC production of the two main forces has limited changes, while the epoxy resin production has increased and the stocking heat has slightly rebounded, which to some extent supports the consumption of bisphenol A. But in the early stage, the bisphenol A industry had a heavy load return, and the supply of goods was abundant. Overall, bisphenol A’s support for PC costs has stopped further dragging down or entered a plateau period.

In terms of demand, the PC consumption pattern has not shown any improvement in the medium to long term, and the overall trend has been relatively weak compared to the previous period. The traditional peak season of “golden September and silver October” has not been realized in terminal consumption, and the logic of weak rigid demand procurement continues to this day. The bidding price of Zhejiang Petrochemical has fallen at a low level, and the wait-and-see sentiment of the industry is biased. Buyers have strong resistance to high priced goods, and the circulation of goods on site is slow. The load recovery of downstream enterprises is not significant, and factories are taking goods to maintain production. It is difficult for the demand side to form strong support for spot prices.

Future forecast

In early November, the PC market continued its weak trend and fell at a low level. The upstream bisphenol A market has stopped falling and stabilized, with overall weak support for PC costs. The load of domestic polymerization plants continues to be high, and the supply remains high. Downstream weak and rigid demand stocking makes it difficult to drive the market trend, resulting in poor flow of market goods and a profound mismatch between supply and demand. Although the price of PC has fallen below the low point of the year, industry benefits are difficult to materialize. Therefore, Shengyi Society predicts that the future PC market may face the risk of a downward trend.