According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic polyester staple fiber market has fluctuated and adjusted weakly since November. As of November 19th, the average price of 1.4D * 38mm in mainstream factories in Jiangsu and Zhejiang was 7226 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.34% from the beginning of the month.

Due to weak cost adjustments, there is insufficient support for the cost of polyester staple fibers. The supply side and circulation of polyester staple fibers are relatively loose, and downstream demand is gradually weakening, resulting in low purchasing enthusiasm. The market has a strong negative sentiment, which has dragged down the price of polyester staple fibers.

Looking at the future, international crude oil prices on the cost side have declined. As of November 18th, the settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $69.17 per barrel, and the settlement price of the main contract for Brent crude oil futures was $73.30 per barrel. There is an expectation of further increase in PX supply in Asia, and the pressure on domestic PX inventory is rising. In recent years, negotiations for annual contracts have begun, and a cautious trading atmosphere is evident.

As of November 19th, the average market price of PTA in the East China region of China was 4797 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.09% from the beginning of the month. PTA has started to accumulate inventory, and according to statistics, the current social inventory is around 4.01 million tons. Maintenance facilities have been restarted one after another, increasing expectations of loose supply. The current industry operating rate is around 85%.

As late November approaches, the demand in the textile industry is still in the traditional off-season, and yarn mills have reduced their rigid demand for polyester staple fibers. With the end of the shopping festival, the terminal textile industry focuses on the urgent need for e-commerce orders, the clearance of raw fabric inventory, and the procurement of raw materials. Most manufacturers have reported that the order volume this year is lower than in previous years, and there is some support for domestic demand for thermal insulation fabrics. Considering the subsequent tariff issues for foreign trade orders, some orders are issued in advance but can only be processed on an average basis. The comprehensive operating rate of chemical fiber weaving in Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions has slightly declined to 76%.

Business analysts believe that the cost driven market is bearish, coupled with the end of the peak consumption season, and the weakening of cost and supply and demand structure coexists. It is expected that the price of polyester staple fiber will continue to show a downward trend in the short term.

Aluminum prices fall

Aluminum prices remained strong in early November, showing a strong performance. Recently, aluminum prices have fallen significantly. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of November 18, 2024, the average price of aluminum ingots in the East China market in China was 20526.67 yuan/ton, an increase of 5.49% from the market average price of 21720 yuan/ton on November 8.

The early rise in aluminum prices was mainly due to the upward shift of the cost center, which drove the rise of the industrial chain market. In particular, the price of raw material alumina has risen significantly, and the near end fundamentals are expected to be good, resulting in strong prices and causing aluminum prices to skyrocket. At present, the main reason for the decline in aluminum prices is due to fundamental considerations of supply and demand. After rising, prices have begun to make slight corrections.

The basic logic behind the short-term decline in domestic aluminum prices is as follows:

1. There is an expectation of weakening export demand

On November 15, 2024, the Ministry of Finance and the State Administration of Taxation issued a notice on adjusting the export tax rebate policy. Starting from December 1, 2024, all export tax rebates for aluminum products will be cancelled, involving 24 tax codes such as aluminum strips, aluminum foils, aluminum tubes, aluminum tube accessories, and some aluminum bar profiles.

The partial 301 tariff policy of the United States came into effect on September 27th. This includes a 100% tariff on Chinese electric vehicles, a 50% tariff on Chinese solar cells, and a 25% tariff on Chinese steel, aluminum, electric vehicle batteries, and key minerals.

The cancellation of export tax rebates for downstream aluminum products in China and the implementation of some 301 tariff policies in the United States. Prior to this, the new US president took office and the expectation of increased tax policies intensified. From a domestic perspective, these policies have all raised the overseas landing costs of exported products. The export demand of the aluminum industry chain is expected to weaken.

From the divergent price trends of Shanghai Aluminum and London Aluminum in Friday night trading, it also reflects the interpretation of policies by the two markets. Domestically, downstream aluminum exports are expected to weaken, suppressing raw material aluminum ingot prices. Overseas, the opposite is true. The expectation of rising import costs from China and the potential increase in localized demand have led to an upward trend in “bread” expectations and a improvement in local “flour” aluminum ingot prices.

2. Doubts about the sustainability of cost support

Although the short-term cost support for aluminum ingots remains strong, the sustainability of cost support is questionable. The fundamentals of proximal alumina remain favorable, but it has also been reflected in prices, with even alumina prices exceeding expectations and experiencing excessive increases. Currently, the profit window for alumina exports is gradually closing, and due to high prices, there will be more production capacity in the future, and long-term excess pressure will gradually emerge; The risk of alumina price pullback has increased, and the cost support risk of aluminum ingot prices has intensified.

Although the fundamentals of alumina in the near end remain strong, with tight supply in the mining sector and short-term tightness in spot alumina, there is a dynamic expectation of weakening in the far end. From the recent weekly shipment data of Guinea, the bauxite shipment volume in Guinea has shown a significant rebound, and it is expected that the arrival volume in October and November will increase significantly. At present, domestic alumina enterprises mainly using imported minerals still have high operating rates, and the tight supply at the mining end has not brought the expected risk of production reduction. There is also an expected increase in domestic spot supply of alumina. A large alumina plant in Shandong has put into operation a 1 million ton production line this month, with an expected product release date of the end of October or early November. The production situation of new production capacity on the spot side of alumina may be mainly affected by the relocation of 2 million tons of production capacity by Weiqiao Group in the fourth quarter. It is expected that the first batch will be discharged in early November, and the second batch is highly likely to be discharged at the end of November or early December. There is also a production capacity of 2 million tons for Guangxi Huasheng Phase II, with the first batch expected to be put into operation by the end of December and the second batch expected to be put into operation by the end of January 2025.

Overall, in the short term, domestic aluminum prices are under pressure and are expected to decline, with weak fluctuations being the main trend.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, on the 15th, the mainstream polyester filament factories in Jiangsu and Zhejiang Province quoted POY (150D/48F) at 7000-7400 yuan/ton, polyester DTY (150D/48F low elasticity) at 8400-8900 yuan/ton, and polyester FDY (150D/96F) at 7500-7800 yuan/ton. In early October, driven by favorable costs, there was some upward trend, but downstream demand did not show significant improvement. The filament market was sluggish in the middle and late months, and the gains at the beginning of the month were gradually consumed. The polyester filament market was not prosperous during the peak season of September and October.

In terms of cost, in November, under the influence of international oil prices, some polyester companies gradually opened up prices and began to slightly reduce prices last weekend. Although the price reduction is not significant, it may become the beginning of the original trend for a period of time in the future.

In terms of supply and demand, after entering November, due to the influence of temperature factors, the order situation did not show a significant decline. Overall, downstream still has strong support for polyester filament, but weaving enterprises still hold a cautious attitude towards raw material procurement. The market has a strong wait-and-see sentiment, with few spot transactions and light production and sales of polyester filament.

From the perspective of foreign trade export data, in October, China’s textile and clothing exports reached 25.48 billion US dollars, a year-on-year increase of 11.9%. Among them, textile exports amounted to 12.39 billion US dollars, a year-on-year increase of 16.1%; Clothing exports amounted to 13.09 billion US dollars, a year-on-year increase of 8.1%. There has been a significant increase in exports to the United States, including market forecasts for the outcome of the US election. These demands will provide support for polyester raw materials in the short term.

There is a strong wait-and-see sentiment in the market, with few spot transactions and light production and sales of polyester filament. The average production and sales of polyester are 34.3%.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the average price of ammonium sulfate in the domestic market on November 14th was 805 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.42% compared to the average price of 801 yuan/ton on November 8th.

2、 Market analysis

This week, the price of ammonium sulfate in the domestic market fluctuated narrowly and adjusted, with some regions experiencing slight price increases. The operating rate of coking enterprises remains stable, with a slight increase in the operating rate at the domestic level. This week, downstream procurement is mainly based on demand, with a wait-and-see attitude, and rare earth manufacturers are adding orders in moderation. At present, the international market situation of ammonium sulfate has not improved, and there is no short-term positive news. As of November 14th, the mainstream ex factory quotation for coking grade ammonium sulfate in Shandong region is around 760 yuan/ton. Domestic grade ammonium sulfate, the mainstream factory price in Shandong region is around 810-840 yuan/ton.

3、 Future forecast

An ammonium sulfate analyst from Shengyi Society believes that the market situation for ammonium sulfate has slightly improved recently, with a slight increase in bidding prices. But the poor export market situation has a certain impact on the domestic market. It is expected that in the short term, the domestic ammonium sulfate market will mainly experience a narrow range of price consolidation and operation.

The domestic acetone market continues to operate weakly. According to the analysis system of Business Society, the national acetone market reported an average of 6017 yuan/ton on November 1st, 5875 yuan/ton on November 12th, a decrease of 2.37%, and 5675 yuan/ton on November 12th in the East China region.

The domestic acetone market continues to decline, with average replenishment sentiment from terminal factories entering the market. The overall trading atmosphere is lukewarm, and traders arrange shipments according to the market. Real time negotiations and follow-up are limited, and trading is average. Quotations continue to move towards the lower end. It is expected that the acetone market price in East China will be between 5600-5700 yuan/ton today.

The acetone offers in major mainstream markets across the country on November 12th are as follows:

Region/ Quotation/ Daily increase and decrease

East China region/ 5680./ -50

Shandong region/ 5950./ -100

Yanshan region/ 6020./ -50

South China region/ 5780./ -50