According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic polyester staple fiber market continued to decline on August 20th. The average price of 1.4D * 38mm in mainstream factories in Jiangsu and Zhejiang was 7501 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.53% from the previous trading day. The general quotation was between 7450-7550 yuan/ton, a decrease of about 100 yuan/ton. The weak raw material prices have dragged down, and downstream purchases are cautious according to demand, resulting in a strong bearish atmosphere in the overall short fiber market.

The United States is pushing for a ceasefire agreement to end the Gaza conflict, and concerns about weak demand have put pressure on the market. International oil prices have plummeted, and on August 19th, the settlement price of the main WTI crude oil futures contract in the United States was $74.37 per barrel, a decrease of $2.38 or 3.0%. The settlement price of the main Brent crude oil futures contract was $77.66 per barrel, a decrease of $2.02 or 2.5%. PTA followed the decline in crude oil prices, coupled with expectations of accumulated inventory, and prices continued to fall. On August 20th, the average PTA market price in East China was 5357 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.63% from the previous trading day.

Downstream terminal demand is sluggish, and some finished product inventory has accumulated, resulting in sporadic purchases of raw materials. At present, the purchasing enthusiasm of terminal enterprises is limited, and they plan to purchase raw materials at a low price after digesting the inventory.

Business analysts believe that there is still significant uncertainty in the geopolitical situation, and international crude oil is operating weakly. The PTA industry has a high operating rate of over 86%, and the supply of goods is still abundant, so the cost guidance has slowed down. Downstream is in the traditional off-season and cautious in raw material procurement. It is expected that the price of polyester staple fiber will continue to decline in the short term.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the domestic price of LLDPE (7042) was 8318 yuan/ton on August 9th, and the average price was 8296 yuan/ton on August 16th, with a price drop of 0.26% during this period.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the domestic price of LDPE (2426H) was 10116 yuan/ton on August 9th, and the average price was 10100 yuan/ton on August 16th, with a price drop of 0.16% during this period.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the domestic price of HDPE (5000S) was 8137 yuan/ton on August 9th, and the average price was 8137 yuan/ton on August 16th, during which the quotation was temporarily stable.

Recently, there has been a narrow and weak adjustment in polyethylene prices. International oil prices are showing an upward trend, with some support on the cost side. In the second quarter, the spring inspection equipment is relatively concentrated, and in the third quarter, with the gradual restart of polyethylene maintenance equipment, there is an expected increase in the supply side. According to statistics, as of August 15th, the total production of polyethylene by domestic enterprises was 555900 tons, an increase of 14200 tons compared to the previous period; In terms of demand, the demand for greenhouse film has entered a reserve period, and downstream production rates have rebounded, with orders gradually following up; At the same time, the operating rate of packaging film enterprises has slightly increased, and market purchases are mainly made at low prices, with traders offering small discounts.

In August, polyethylene futures were mainly downgraded due to weak market conditions, which suppressed spot prices.

There is an expectation of an increase on the supply side; Demand side consumption is expected to increase, boosted by consumption during the Mid Autumn Festival and National Day holidays in August and September, resulting in a double increase in supply and demand. It is expected that polyethylene may rise slightly, but the upward adjustment space may be limited.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic PTA market fluctuated and adjusted weakly this week (August 12-16). The average spot price of PTA in East China was 5566 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.59% from the beginning of the week. At the beginning of the week, the main supplier announced a maintenance plan for the PTA plant, which, combined with the rise in crude oil prices, boosted the PTA market. But as crude oil fell and demand remained weak, PTA prices fell. With the rebound of crude oil on Friday, PTA prices showed a slight rebound. Looking at the future market:

In terms of supply, the current operating rate of the PTA industry in China is around 86%, maintaining a high level, and the overall supply of goods is still abundant.

In the crude oil market, the trend of US oil destocking is not as expected, which limits the support for the oil market. However, we still need to be vigilant about changes in the geopolitical situation, and oil prices may remain stable. Recently, the overall supply capacity of PX in Asia has been at a high level, coupled with the continued shutdown plans of some PTA plants in China, resulting in a consolidation of PX prices at a low level.

Downstream polyester production is around 83%, and there are currently no plans for large-scale polyester plants to shut down or reduce production in the short term, resulting in weak demand for PTA. Terminal demand is still in the off-season, and finished product inventory is still mainly accumulated. We are cautious about raw material procurement, focusing on essential needs. Currently, the operating rate in Jiangsu and Zhejiang remains around 63%.

Business analysts believe that PTA has abundant supply and weak demand, and the fundamentals lack highlights. In addition, the cost side support has slowed down, and under the lack of positive guidance in the market, PTA prices may fluctuate weakly.

The domestic fluorite price trend has declined, with an average price of 3462.5 yuan/ton as of the 15th, a decrease of 3.08% from the beginning of the month price of 3572.5 yuan/ton, and a year-on-year increase of 13.29%.

Supply side: Limited mining operations and low fluorite inventory

The current situation of the game in the domestic fluorite industry still exists. Overall, the operating rate of enterprises has not changed much. Upstream mining is tight, backward mines will continue to be eliminated, and new mines will be added. Mineral investigation work is still difficult. In addition, the national department needs to rectify fluorite mines, and fluorite mining enterprises are facing increasingly strict safety and environmental protection requirements. The rectification action is coming to an end in August, but the affected area has not narrowed. The difficulty of starting fluorite mines has increased, and the shortage of raw materials has limited the operation of fluorite enterprises. The supply of fluorite sources is still tight, and the inventory of fluorite enterprises is low. However, the import of fluorite from Mongolia has a significant impact on the northern fluorite market, and the trend of.

Demand side: Hydrofluoric acid demand, weak refrigerant, low operating level

Recently, the domestic hydrofluoric acid market has fluctuated at a low level, and the mainstream price for hydrofluoric acid in various regions of China is negotiated at 10500-11000 yuan/ton. The downstream hydrofluoric acid market is consolidating weakly, and some units are still shut down recently. There is little change in the spot supply of hydrofluoric acid, and manufacturers have low orders for purchasing hydrofluoric acid. The overall production of hydrofluoric acid is less than 60%, which has dragged down the domestic fluorite market. Some hydrofluoric acid manufacturers purchase on demand, and the domestic fluorite market trend is declining.

The downstream refrigerant market in the terminal continues to be deadlocked due to poor demand transmission. After entering the off-season of production, market production demand weakens. In addition, refrigerant companies have poor stocking conditions and are not actively purchasing upstream products. The market for some refrigerant products has declined, and as a result, the fluorite market is weak and difficult to change.

In addition to the traditional demand in the refrigerant industry, fluorite, as an important mineral raw material for modern industry, is constantly developing in emerging fields. It is also applied in strategic emerging industries such as new energy and new materials, as well as national defense, nuclear industry, etc., including lithium hexafluorophosphate, PVDF, graphite negative electrode, photovoltaic panel, etc. With the demand driven by new energy and semiconductor fields, fluorite applications have received certain support, and the fluorite market is still supported.

Market forecast: In the near future, it is difficult to improve the supply of domestic fluorite mines, and some mines have stopped production for safety inspections. The tight supply of fluorite mines is a major positive support for the fluorite market. However, the downstream hydrofluoric acid market trend has declined, and the demand for downstream refrigerants has weakened. In addition, imported fluorite sources have formed a certain impact on the market, and there are many negative factors. Chen Ling, an analyst at Business Society, believes that fluorite prices will fluctuate at a low level in the later stage.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the overall toluene market has been declining recently (8.2-8.9). On August 5th, the benchmark price of toluene was 7380 yuan/ton, and on August 9th, the benchmark price of toluene was 7270 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.49% during the period. This cycle, the toluene market continued to operate weakly, with market prices fluctuating downward. The decline in crude oil prices during the week has dragged down market sentiment, and the overall market atmosphere is bearish. The overall demand is weak, and the enthusiasm for purchasing in the gasoline blending industry is low. The enthusiasm for downstream market entry is also low, coupled with the weakening macro situation, which has led to a strong market atmosphere. As of August 9th, the mainstream quotation range in East China is between 7220-7250 yuan/ton, with a cumulative price reduction of 70-100 yuan/ton compared to last week.

On the cost side: During this cycle, the crude oil market has declined. On the one hand, the OPEC+production reduction of 2.2 million barrels per day will be implemented until the end of September, but from October onwards, depending on market conditions, production may gradually increase, which is bearish for the crude oil market. On the other hand, the poor non farm payroll data and rising unemployment rate released by the United States in July, coupled with poor global economic data, have intensified market concerns about the demand outlook and increased negative pressure on the psychological level, leading to a decline in the crude oil market trend. Overall, the crude oil market has significantly declined during the cycle, with a negative rate of change in crude oil. As of August 9th, international crude oil futures have risen. The settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $76.84 per barrel, an increase of $0.65 or 0.9%. The settlement price of the main Brent crude oil futures contract was $79.66 per barrel, an increase of $0.50 or 0.6%.

Supply side: Sinopec’s toluene quotation has been partially reduced this week, with slight differences in the extent of reduction across regions, and the reduction is relatively small. At present, the enterprise is operating normally, the production of equipment is stable, the products are mostly for personal use, and the production and sales are stable. Among them, the East China Company quoted 7150 yuan/ton, the North China Company quoted 7350 yuan/ton, the South China Company quoted 7200-7250 yuan/ton, and the Central China Company quoted 7200 yuan/ton.

Demand side: The external market for xylene continues to decline, and the demand support for toluene is relatively weak

On August 12th, Sinopec Sales Company temporarily stabilized the price of xylene, with the current execution price being 8500 yuan/ton. This price is implemented in East China, North China, Central China, and South China. Yangzi Petrochemical, Zhenhai Petrochemical and other facilities are operating stably and selling normally. As of August 8th, CFR China’s closing price was 983 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 22 US dollars/ton from last week.

On Friday (August 9th), the Asian toluene market was closed due to a public holiday. The closing price for August 8th was $884-886 USD/ton FOB Korea; The closing price of CFR China in September was 872-874 US dollars per ton.

Market forecast: The recent trend of crude oil on the cost side is weak, with limited support for the toluene market. Affected by the macro atmosphere, the overall atmosphere of the toluene market has been weak recently, with low market operation intentions and limited trading. Although the price is at a lower level this year and some regions have some intention to replenish inventory, the market atmosphere is still acceptable. But overall, downstream demand is still weak, with insufficient demand support. Overall, there are still negative factors in the toluene market, and there is a strong supply-demand game mentality. It is expected that the short-term trend will be dominated by narrow fluctuations. Focus on downstream replenishment in the future.