1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the average market price of baking soda on January 16th was 1554 yuan/ton. On January 15th, the Business Society Baking Soda Index was 103.34, a decrease of 0.07 points from yesterday, a decrease of 56.18% from the highest point of 235.84 points during the cycle (November 10, 2021), and an increase of 17.07% from the lowest point of 88.27 points on December 22, 2020. (Note: Cycle refers to September 1, 2020 to present)

2、 Market analysis

According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price of baking soda is running steadily, and the company’s shipments are still acceptable. The price of baking soda in Henan region is operating steadily, with a factory price of 1450-1550 yuan/ton in Henan region and 1500-1750 yuan/ton in Shandong region. Due to downstream demand based procurement, it is expected that consolidation and operation will be the main focus in the later stage. Upstream: According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price of soda ash has been consolidating this week. The current market average price is 1494 yuan/ton, and downstream customers tend to purchase according to their needs.

Business Society analysts believe that the price of baking soda has been consolidating recently, with a general trend in the upstream raw material soda ash market. Downstream areas of baking soda, such as pharmaceuticals, textiles, and food, have been purchasing on demand recently, with average demand enthusiasm and a supply-demand game. Overall, it is expected that the price of baking soda will mainly fluctuate in the later stage, depending on downstream market demand.

According to the analysis of the Business Society’s market monitoring system, on January 15th, the reference price for domestic silicon metal # 441 was 11340 yuan/ton. Compared with January 10th (silicon metal # 441 market price of 11510 yuan/ton), the price decreased by 170 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.48%. Compared with January 1st (silicon metal # 441 market price of 11690 yuan/ton), the price decreased by 350 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.99%.

From the market monitoring system of Shengyi Society, it can be seen that in mid January, the domestic spot market for silicon metal continued to move towards a low level, and the overall market focus fell sharply again. As of January 14th, the price reference for Oxygen 553 # in East China is around 10900-11000 yuan/ton, 441 # is around 11200-11400 yuan/ton, 521 # is around 11300-11600 yuan/ton, and 421 # is around 11500-11800 yuan/ton.

Analysis of Market Factors

In terms of construction: As we enter mid January, the overall construction rate of the domestic silicon metal market continues to decline. Currently, the weekly construction rate in Xinjiang is around 57%, slightly lower than the beginning of the month. At present, the overall production in Xinjiang has also decreased. The weekly operating rate of silicon metal in Yunnan region is around 43%, slightly lower than the beginning of the month. At present, there are relatively few silicon producing enterprises in Yunnan region, and there will still be continued production cuts in the future. The current weekly operating rate in Sichuan region is only 7%, and it has also slightly decreased compared to the beginning of the month. Some silicon companies in the market are currently in production.

On the supply side: Currently, the domestic silicon metal market is in a weak supply-demand situation, with low silicon metal production in Xinjiang and Yunnan regions, and limited production in Sichuan region. Sichuan region has downstream supporting businesses in the silicon industry, resulting in low willingness to sell at discounted prices. The overall supply side of the market has slightly reduced inventory, and the supply side market is weak.

In terms of demand, there is a partial demand for supplementary orders in the downstream of metal silicon in Xinjiang, and the overall market has slightly reduced inventory. The inquiry atmosphere in the downstream of Yunnan is light, and the overall shipment pace is slow, with limited market support from the demand side.

Market analysis in the future

Currently, the market for silicon metal has fallen to a relatively low level. Although downstream demand orders are relatively low, due to the support of silicon companies’ own production costs and production reduction, the willingness to make significant concessions in the silicon metal market is still low. Therefore, the metal silicon data analyst from Shengyi Society believes that in the short term, the domestic spot market for silicon metal will mainly be weak and operate in a consolidated manner, and specific changes in supply and demand information need to be closely monitored.

Price trend

According to the bulk ranking data from Shengyi Society, the domestic PC market in China was generally stable in January, with some spot prices of certain brands experiencing a slight decline. As of January 14th, the mixed benchmark price of Business Society PC was around 16466.67 yuan/ton, with a price increase or decrease of -0.30% compared to January 1st.

Cause analysis

On the supply side: Currently, domestic PC aggregation enterprises have a stable pattern of load absorption at the beginning of the month, with very limited changes. The industry average operating rate has been slightly adjusted from around 77.5% to 77%. The average weekly production remains at a super high level of over 60000 tons, and the on-site supply is still abundant, with no change in the supply-demand mismatch pattern. The high inventory has led to cautious pricing by manufacturers, while the market supply side has provided average support for PC prices.

In terms of raw materials: From the above chart, it can be seen that after the significant recovery of bisphenol A at the end of last year, the bulls gradually ran out in early January, and downstream demand remained stable. After the upward movement of bisphenol A prices was blocked, it entered a consolidation market. The support for PC cost has weakened.

On the demand side: The PC consumption pattern has been weak for a long time, and the overall trend continues to be weak at the end of last year. At the end of last year, there were some export orders placed in advance in the market. Currently, the overall trend is returning to weak rigid demand procurement, and industry players tend to be cautious and cautious. As the Lunar New Year holiday approaches, pre holiday stocking is gradually being completed, and some downstream factories are on holiday. The load on end enterprises is declining, and buyers are resistant to high priced goods. The slow circulation of goods in the market has limited changes, and the demand side has poor support for PC spot prices.

Future forecast

The PC market remained stable with a slight decline in mid January. The upstream bisphenol A market is currently maintaining consolidation, with average support for PC costs. The load of domestic PC aggregation plants has basically leveled off, and the supply remains loose and unchanged. The high level of inventory in the industry has limited changes, and there has been no substantial improvement in supply pressure. The downstream pre holiday stocking is gradually coming to an end, which has insufficient driving force on the market situation. It is expected that with the increase of delisting of practitioners in the future, PC may return to a calm pre holiday market and focus on consolidation and operation.

Review of the Natural Rubber Market in 2024

The natural rubber market is expected to fluctuate and rise in 2024. According to the monitoring of Shengyi Society, as of December 31, 2024, the domestic natural rubber market price was 16890 yuan/ton, an increase of 29.33% from 13060 yuan/ton at the beginning of the year. The high point of the cycle was at the end of September at RMB/ton, and the low point was at the beginning of February at RMB 12570/ton.

At the beginning of the year, as the Spring Festival approached, downstream construction significantly decreased, resulting in light trading in the natural rubber market and a low price consolidation with no market. After the Spring Festival, due to the combined effects of multiple factors such as El Ni ñ o phenomenon, aging of rubber trees, and shortage of rubber cutting workers, natural rubber raw material cutting in major production areas around the world has almost come to a halt, and the prices of natural rubber raw materials at home and abroad have continued to rise, driving a significant increase in domestic natural rubber prices.

At the beginning of the second quarter, with the improvement of production area cutting and the pressure of total social inventory, natural rubber prices experienced a decline. In the mid to late second quarter, the cutting process slowed down again due to continuous rainfall in domestic and overseas production areas, coupled with the continuous destocking of natural rubber prices at ports, which rose again until early June.

At the end of the second quarter to the beginning of the third quarter, on the one hand, the terminal tire market was not optimistic about shipments, and the production of all steel tires declined. Downstream demand for high priced natural rubber sources was relatively resistant. In addition, due to suitable domestic and international climates, the high prices of natural rubber raw materials fell, and the comprehensive demand and cost dragged down, resulting in a significant drop in natural rubber prices.

Starting from mid to late August of the third quarter, Thailand’s production areas were affected by continuous rainfall and floods. In addition, the typhoon in September had a significant impact on the rubber production areas, making it impossible to carry out rubber cutting work during this period. The natural rubber raw material market at home and abroad was extremely scarce, and raw material prices rose again, further promoting a significant increase in domestic natural rubber prices, reaching the highest point of the year at the end of September.

In the fourth quarter, the weather in the main production areas entered a prosperous season with normal conditions, and the output of raw materials increased significantly. The prices of natural rubber raw materials at home and abroad fell from high levels. In addition, domestic port inventory has once again entered the accumulation stage, which has a bearish impact on natural rubber prices. However, the domestic downstream production of semi steel tires continues to remain at a high level, while the production of all steel tires has increased, and the demand is supported by the demand for natural rubber. The overall range of natural rubber prices fluctuated in the fourth quarter under the comprehensive influence.

Current situation of natural rubber fundamentals

In 2024, the global production of natural rubber increased year-on-year, domestic imports decreased year-on-year, and downstream tires in China increased year-on-year. Overall, the fundamentals of natural rubber in China improved in 2024, providing strong support for the natural rubber market.

The latest November 2024 report released by ANRPC predicts that global natural rubber production is expected to decrease by 1.1% to 1.417 million tons in November, an increase of 3.7% from the previous month, and an increase of 2.3% to 12.691 million tons in the first 11 months; The global production of natural rubber is expected to increase by 4.5% year-on-year to 14.539 million tons in 2024. Among them, Thailand decreased by 0.4%, Indonesia increased by 12.3%, China increased by 4.1%, India increased by 6%, Vietnam decreased by 2%, Malaysia increased by 0.6%, Sri Lanka increased by 21.9%, and other countries increased by 11.6%.

In terms of imports, according to customs data, the cumulative import volume of natural rubber in China from January to November 2024 was 5.0191 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 14.86%. The import volume of natural rubber in 2024 has significantly decreased year-on-year, providing certain support for the domestic natural rubber market

In 2024, the operating rate of all steel tires remained relatively low compared to the same period last year, but the inventory of all steel tires gradually decreased in the second half of the year and the operating rate steadily increased. In 2024, the operating rate of semi steel tires remained relatively high year-on-year, and downstream passenger car sales continued to improve. The inventory of semi steel tires has remained at a relatively low level. Although the production of all steel tires has a low demand for dragging rubber, the overall consumption of natural rubber in tire production is relatively high compared to the same period last year due to the sustained improvement in demand for semi steel tires.

Outlook for the Natural Rubber Market in 2025

Natural rubber production may reach its peak by 2025

The natural rubber production capacity of Asian rubber producing countries in 2024 is approximately 15.57 million tons. Based on the 7-year cutting of rubber trees, it is expected that the natural rubber production capacity will show a slight decline after peaking in the later stage. It is estimated that by 2030, the natural rubber production capacity of Asian rubber producing countries will decline to 13.02 million tons, which is a compound annual decrease of about 3.0% compared to 2024. At the current high prices, Indonesia’s production is expected to significantly decline by 2025, while regions with relatively young tree age structures such as Thailand, Vietnam, and Cote d’Ivoire are expected to see an increase in production. However, overall, natural rubber production is expected to peak.

The demand for new car tires and the market demand for replacement tires are expected to improve

On the one hand, the global resident car stock will maintain a growth trend from 2023 to 2025; On the other hand, in the past 2024, the global share of cheap tires in Asia has increased. Overall, the improvement of global residents’ consumption ability and the shift in their consumption habits towards choosing Asian tires with higher cost-effectiveness are expected to further open up the potential demand space for the replacement tire market. The demand for replacement tires is expected to continue to grow in 2025

According to data from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, from January to November 2024, the production and sales of automobiles reached 27.903 million and 27.94 million respectively, an increase of 2.9% and 3.7% year-on-year. From January to November, the production and sales of new energy vehicles reached 11.345 million and 11.262 million respectively, an increase of 34.6% and 35.6% year-on-year; The sales of new energy vehicles account for 40.3% of the total sales of new cars. The downstream demand for automobiles is expected to improve in 2025, especially for new energy vehicles. Encouraged by relevant domestic policies, it is expected that demand will continue to steadily increase.

The disturbance of weather factors in 2025 will have a certain impact on the natural rubber market

It is expected that under normal weather conditions in 2025, global natural rubber production will slightly increase, and the global supply-demand gap may narrow; If the weather is abnormal, global natural rubber production will be somewhat hindered, and the global supply-demand gap will slightly widen.

Taking into account factors such as the basic peak of supply and the expected increase in demand, the natural rubber market is expected to remain at a high level in 2025. Coupled with weather factors, the natural rubber market is expected to fluctuate within a high range in 2025.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the market for adipic acid has risen since January. On January 1st, the average market price of adipic acid was 8100 yuan/ton, and on January 10th, the average market price of adipic acid was 8133 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.41%.

Lido supports the improvement of adipic acid market

After New Year’s Day, the demand for purchasing adipic acid from some terminals increased, and the raw material market stopped falling and stabilized. Supported by bullish factors, traders have raised the price of adipic acid one after another, and the adipic acid market has rebounded. The market transactions are still acceptable, and the volume of goods has increased. As of January 10th, the domestic market price of adipic acid has risen to around 8100 yuan/ton.

An analyst from Shengyi Society believes that as the end of the year approaches, the supply of adipic acid will decline, and there is still room for an upward trend in the future adipic acid market.