According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic lithium carbonate market continued to operate weakly in early September. On September 4th, the average price of battery grade lithium carbonate was 80200 yuan/ton, a decrease of 11.7% from the same period last month when it was 91000 yuan/ton. The average price of industrial grade lithium carbonate is 77800 yuan/ton, a decrease of 11.99% from the same period last month when it was 88400 yuan/ton.

It is worth noting that the weekly inventory of lithium carbonate has experienced a long-awaited decline. The data shows that as of the week ending August 30th, the weekly inventory of lithium carbonate samples decreased by 1256 tons month on month to 131304 tons, marking the first time since the end of March that the inventory has been depleted. Although inventory has decreased to some extent, the overall situation is multifaceted, and the contradiction of inventory accumulation has not been resolved.

On the demand side: According to research data from the Da Dong Times Think Tank, the power and energy storage production of Chinese battery factories in September 2024 was 100.2GWh, and the production in August was 94.1GWh, an increase of 6.5% compared to the previous month. The production of consumer batteries in the Chinese market is 9.1 GWh. In September, the production of power, energy storage, and consumer batteries in the Chinese market was around 110 GWh, while in September, the production of power, energy storage, and consumer batteries in the global market was around 135 GWh.

Business Society’s lithium carbonate data analyst believes that although the weekly inventory of lithium carbonate has decreased, the total inventory is still at a high level, and downstream demand is expected to increase. It is expected that lithium carbonate will fluctuate weakly in the near future.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of September 4, 2024, the reference price of n-butanol in Shandong Province, China is 7000 yuan/ton. Compared with August 31 (reference price of 7116 yuan/ton), the price has decreased by 116 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.64%. Compared with August 1 (reference price of 7933 yuan/ton), the price has decreased by 933 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10.71%.

From the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, it can be seen that in August, the overall n-butanol market in Shandong Province, China, has been declining. Entering September, the overall atmosphere of the n-butanol market has not improved significantly, and the focus of the n-butanol market continues to move towards lower levels. Some factories in Shandong have once again lowered the price of n-butanol, with a reduction of 50-150 yuan/ton. As of September 4th, the n-butanol market in Shandong is expected to be around 6950-7050 yuan/ton.

Analysis of Factors Influencing the Market Situation of n-Butanol

In terms of demand: In the first week of September, downstream demand for n-butanol performed poorly, with strong sentiment in the n-butanol market. Operators were cautious in their operations, and demand transmission was slow, resulting in insufficient overall support for n-butanol demand.

On the supply side: As we enter September, the overall supply of n-butanol in the market is relatively loose, and some factories are gradually starting to operate. The operating rate of n-butanol has increased. At the beginning of the month, the overall supply pressure of n-butanol has not decreased, and the support provided by the supply side to the market is weak.

Market price situation of n-butanol

Region/ Product/ September 4th

Shandong region/ N-butanol/ 6950-7050 yuan/ton nearby

North China region/ N-butanol/ Around 7000-7050 yuan/ton

South China region/ N-butanol/ Around 7300-7350 yuan/ton

East China region/ N-butanol/ Around 7100-7300 yuan/ton

Market analysis in the future

At present, the trading atmosphere of n-butanol in the market is average, and the negotiation atmosphere in the market is slightly weak. The n-butanol data analyst from Shengyi Society believes that in the short term, the n-butanol market in Shandong Province is mainly weak and stable, and the specific trend still needs to pay more attention to changes in supply and demand news.

1、 Price trend

In August, the domestic adipic acid market continued to decline. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of August 31, the monthly decline in adipic acid was 3.68%, and the market trading center is still shifting downwards. At present, the market price range for adipic acid is between 8350-9700 yuan/ton, a decrease of about 400 yuan from the beginning of the month. The main reason is the lack of cost support.

2、 Market analysis

Cost aspect:

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the price of pure benzene has slightly increased this month, with a growth rate of 2.07%. Compared to July 1st, it has fallen by 7.57%, experiencing the previous downward trend. This month, the pure benzene market has begun to rebound slightly. The price of cyclohexanone closed down, with a decrease of 2.31% this month. Overall, there are negative factors on the cost side.

Supply side:

From the perspective of market supply, in terms of equipment, the operating rate of adipic acid this month is around 6.1 floors, and maintenance units are starting to operate one after another this month. There is sufficient supply of goods on site, and some manufacturers are in a state of stockpiling. The middle and lower reaches are in a wait-and-see state and cautious in entering the market.

Adipic acid downstream is still showing weakness. The caprolactam and TPU industries are still performing poorly. Downstream factories are cautious in their procurement, with no improvement in orders, ensuring normal start-up needs. Taking caprolactam as an example, according to the monitoring of Shengyi Society, the rise and fall of caprolactam this month was 0.55%, and the market was hovering at the bottom. At the end of the month, the market price of caprolactam in Zhejiang region was around 12500-14100 yuan/ton. At present, the focus of transactions in the adipic acid market is weakening.

3、 Future forecast

Analysts from Shengyi Society believe that in terms of cost, the overall trend of crude oil in August was mainly volatile. The geopolitical situation in the Middle East has affected the trend of the crude oil market, and the tense situation has boosted confidence in the crude oil market. The pure benzene market is rising, and the cost aspect may experience a bullish shift from bearish to bullish in the later stage. It is expected that adipic acid will fluctuate and rise within the range in September.

In the last week of August, the domestic acrylonitrile market ended its nearly four month decline and rebounded from the bottom. The mainstream self pickup price in East China ports quickly rose from 8050 yuan/ton to around 8550 yuan/ton, with a two-day increase of 6.2%. The main reason for this rebound comes from the supply side, with major factories in East China reducing their equipment load. Due to the long-term unilateral decline of acrylonitrile prices in the early stage, which resulted in historically low levels, coupled with the worsening loss situation of individual products, there was a strong sentiment of buying and replenishing at the bottom of the market, and buying orders quickly followed suit.

Supply reduction

The capacity utilization rate of the acrylonitrile industry has decreased from around 75% last week to around 66% currently.

After overcapacity in the acrylonitrile industry, the impact of supply changes on market trends becomes more direct, that is, the negative correlation between capacity utilization and prices is significantly strengthened.

Cost support

The continuous increase in cost pressure is also an important factor supporting the rapid rebound of acrylonitrile market prices in this round.

Since late June, the production profit of acrylonitrile single products has shown negative performance, and the loss situation has gradually worsened. Acrylonitrile manufacturers in some MMA co production facilities can still maintain normal production, but other enterprises are facing severe pressure of losses. Therefore, manufacturers have a particularly strong intention to raise prices, and there is some positive support on the news side, making the enthusiasm for pushing up prices more obvious.

However, the acrylonitrile market only continued to rise for 2-3 days this week, and then returned to calm again. On the one hand, there has been no further improvement in overall downstream demand, and buying orders have quickly resumed the pace of immediate demand after a moderate replenishment of positions; On the other hand, although the industry’s capacity utilization rate has significantly decreased, the industry’s inventory still needs to be digested, and the overall supply is still abundant.

market prediction

At present, the acrylonitrile market needs to continue waiting for further positive news support to emerge. Overall, supply may still be reduced, and demand will gradually improve in September. Therefore, the market is prone to rise but difficult to fall in the short term. However, considering the continuous existence of supply variables under the background of overcapacity, the upward space in the market is still difficult to expand, and it may be difficult to break through the 9000 yuan/ton mark in the short term.

The acetone market continued to decline in August, reaching a new low for the year. According to the analysis system of Business Society, the average daily price of acetone in the national market has dropped from 6975 yuan/ton on August 1st to 6362.5 yuan/ton on August 31st, a decrease of 8.78%, compared to 7062 yuan/ton at the beginning of the year, a decrease of 9.91%. From the perspective of the acetone market in East China, the price of 6750 yuan/ton quoted on August 1st fell to 6150 yuan/ton quoted on August 31st, a decrease of 8.89%. Throughout the year to present, the domestic acetone market has shown a trend of first rising and then falling.

From a supply perspective, the inventory at Jiangyin Port has remained at 25000 to 35000 tons, reaching a high level since the beginning of the year. There will continue to be imports and domestic trade shipments arriving to replenish the inventory. It is understood that the import sources are mainly from South Korea, Saudi Arabia, and Thailand, and it is not ruled out that the high level at the end of the month will continue.

From a cost perspective, pure benzene showed a significant decline at the beginning of the month due to weakened support from the cost side, slow inventory digestion, obvious accumulation of inventory, significant resistance to shipment from petrochemical enterprises, and pressure to digest contract sources. Under multiple pressures, traders had to lower prices to ship.

From the demand side, the top two downstream industries have relatively stable production, with bisphenol A production at 60% and acetone cyanohydrin MMA production at 50%. The overall production of bisphenol A and MMA downstream is stable, with limited export orders for isopropanol and domestic facilities maintaining a level close to 50%.

After a wide decline in the acetone market, the operating rate of phenol ketone factories remained high at the end of the month, and the import contract goods arrived at the port normally, with sufficient supply. Traders still have shipment pressure; From the demand side, solvent terminal factories have seen an increase in demand for acetone as the weather cools down. Currently, acetone has bottomed out, making it a good time for the demand side to restock. In September, there will be a demand for stocking during the Double Festival holiday, and Business Society expects that trading will improve in the later period.