According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price of anhydrous hydrofluoric acid in China remained stable this week. As of December 19th, the benchmark price of hydrofluoric acid in Shengyi Society was 11583.33 yuan/ton, which was the same as the beginning of this week.

Raw material side: The price of raw fluorite remained stable at a high level this week. The current situation of the game in the domestic fluorite industry still exists. Overall, the operating rate of enterprises has not changed much. Upstream mining is tight, backward mines will continue to be eliminated, and new mines will be added. Mineral investigation work is still difficult. In addition, national departments need to rectify fluorite mines, and fluorite mining enterprises are facing increasingly strict safety and environmental protection requirements. Although the rectification action is coming to an end, the affected area has not narrowed. The difficulty of operating fluorite mines has increased, and the shortage of raw materials has limited the operation of fluorite enterprises. The supply of fluorite sources is still tight. According to the monitoring system of Shengyi Society, domestic fluorite prices have risen this week. As of December 19th, the benchmark price of Shengyi Society fluorite was 3678.75 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.10% compared to the beginning of this month (3675.00 yuan/ton).

Demand side: Maintain stability in the downstream refrigerant market. Some factories have offered price increases. Affected by quota management and maintenance plans, most units in the refrigerant industry entered a shutdown state in December, and the operating load gradually decreased, resulting in a continued cold atmosphere towards raw material procurement.

Market forecast: The market price of raw materials remains stable at a high level, and downstream purchases are mainly based on demand. We adopt a wait-and-see and cautious attitude towards high priced raw material purchases. It is expected that the price of hydrofluoric acid will remain stable in the later period.

The ABS market in China remained relatively strong in December, with spot prices of various grades increasing. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of December 18th, the average price of ABS sample products was 11787.5 yuan/ton, with an increase or decrease of 2.61 yuan compared to the beginning of the month.

Fundamental analysis

Supply level: In December, the operating rate of the ABS industry in China remained stable with small fluctuations, and the industry load level had limited changes compared to the beginning of the month. In the early stage, Hengli Petrochemical’s AS plant was converted to ABS, and the Tianjin Dagu blowing task ended, gradually returning to production capacity. The overall operating rate of the industry has rebounded by 2% to around 71%, with a narrow increase in weekly average production of 120000 tons. The inventory of aggregation enterprises has limited changes, with a flat position of 160000 tons, and the overall pattern of abundant supply of goods remains unchanged. Overall, in mid December, the supply side provided average support for ABS spot prices.

Cost factor: Since December, the upstream three materials of ABS have shown a trend of one increase and two increases, with overall support for ABS costs being average. The domestic acrylonitrile market has maintained a high level of growth, while major factories in East China are operating at low loads, with tight supply remaining unchanged. At the same time, the low inventory position in the industry supports suppliers to continue to raise prices, and the market continues to remain strong.

Recently, the domestic butadiene market has remained stable after rising. The inventory of ports in East China is relatively low, and there is an expectation of tight supply in the spot market. The downstream synthetic rubber futures market has strengthened, once again driving up market sentiment. However, with the continuous rise in prices, downstream receiving capacity has gradually declined. Recently, the atmosphere in the spot market has begun to fade, and the market’s upward momentum has weakened, and the market may return to balance.

In mid December, the styrene market fluctuated and consolidated. The performance of upstream crude oil in the far end is still acceptable, with the main focus on consolidating the price of pure benzene as the direct raw material. However, the cost side of styrene has largely exhausted its support for spot prices in the early stage. The changes in domestic industry operating rates are limited, and the situation of tight supply continues. However, in the future, there will be frequent restarts of production capacity, and expectations for a relaxed supply market will be met. At present, there is a lack of further boosting factors in the market, leading to a consolidation of the market.

In terms of demand, the purchasing power in the middle and lower reaches of December is still acceptable. In terms of terminal products, due to the continuous stimulation of the national subsidy policy for household appliances, sales of some terminal products have increased, and enterprise inventory has been digested. Due to the concerns of home appliance exporters about the remote market, some export demand has been pushed forward, the overall load position of factories has rebounded, terminal stocking willingness has strengthened, and procurement operations have increased synchronously. Merchants attempted to increase their offers, but the activity of supply circulation remained high. Overall, the demand side can still provide support to the market.

Future forecast

The ABS market in China is expected to strengthen and consolidate in December. The performance of the upstream three materials is still acceptable, but the comprehensive support for ABS cost side is average. The load of ABS polymerization plant has slightly rebounded, and finished product inventory continues to be digested. On the demand side, the demand is relatively strong, and the market continues to be guided by consumption and remains stable with some strength. However, the increase in demand for household appliances may overdraw future consumption, and businesses have concerns about the post holiday market. Business analysts believe that the uncertainty of ABS’s forward trend may constrain short-term gains. After the recent short selling replenishment market is exhausted, the ABS market may return to a narrow consolidation trend.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic natural rubber spot market has been rising and then falling recently (12.1-12.17). As of December 17, the spot rubber market price in China’s natural rubber market was around 17284 yuan/ton, up 1.51% from 17027 yuan/ton on December 1, and the highest point during the cycle was 17740 yuan/ton. Recently, the price range of raw materials has fluctuated; Domestic Tianjian inventory continues to increase slightly; Downstream tire factories tend to stock up on demand to support the demand for natural rubber, but they have some resistance to high priced sources, and the natural rubber market is consolidating in the high range.

December is currently the peak production season in major overseas production areas, and there is an expectation of seasonal increase in raw material output. But at the beginning of the month, there was more rainfall in southern Thailand, which restricted the development of rubber cutting work. In the middle of the month, as the weather improved, rubber cutting work gradually returned to normal, and raw material prices fell slightly from high levels. As of December 17th, the price of Thai glue was 75.00 baht/kg, a significant increase from 69.00 baht/kg on the 1st; As of December 17th, the purchase price of state-owned and gold rubber water-based concentrated latex raw materials in Hainan production area was around 17400 yuan/ton, slightly adjusted from 17500 yuan/ton on the 1st.

Natural rubber inventory continues to show a state of accumulation. As of December 15, 2024, the total inventory of Tianjiao bonded and general trade in Qingdao area was 452000 tons, an increase of 17300 tons compared to the previous period.

The downstream tire production is basically stable, and the downstream tires mainly provide support for the natural rubber market’s demand. As of December 13th, the operating load of semi steel tires in domestic tire enterprises is around 7.9%; The operating load of all steel tires in tire enterprises in Shandong region is about 5.7%.

Market forecast: The current domestic and international supply of raw materials is gradually increasing, and the prices of raw materials are slightly falling from high levels; The tire market supports the demand for natural rubber, but is resistant to high priced sources of goods; The inventory of Tianjian has slightly increased; Overall, it is expected that the natural rubber market will mainly fluctuate within a range in the short term.

The market price of butadiene rubber in the first half of December slightly increased. According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of December 15th, the market price of butadiene rubber in East China was 13920 yuan/ton, an increase of 4.04% from 13380 yuan/ton on December 1st. The price of raw material butadiene has risen significantly, and the center of gravity of butadiene rubber has shifted upward; Shunding rubber production is gradually increasing; Downstream all steel tire construction has started with minor adjustments. The supply price of Shunding rubber suppliers has been raised, and the quotes from merchants have been adjusted. As of December 15th, the mainstream quotes for Shunding in Qilu, Daqing, Sichuan, and Yangtze in East China are 13850-14100 yuan/ton.

In the first half of December, the price of butadiene continued to rise, and the cost of butadiene rubber was significantly supported. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of December 15th, the price of butadiene was 10450 yuan/ton, an increase of 7.46% from 9725 yuan/ton on December 1st.

Recently (12.0-12.15), the construction rate of domestic butadiene rubber plants has gradually increased to 7.8%.

Demand side: Downstream tires mainly provide essential support for the butadiene rubber market. As of December 13th, the operating load of semi steel tires in domestic tire enterprises is around 7.9%; The construction of all steel tires by tire enterprises in Shandong region has slightly increased to around 5.7% of the load.

Market forecast: From a fundamental perspective, analysts from Shengyi Society believe that the price of raw material butadiene will rise again, and the cost support for butadiene rubber will strengthen; Recently, downstream construction has remained stable, providing strong support for the demand for butadiene rubber; However, the production of Shunding rubber has risen, and the pressure on the supply side has increased. Overall, the Shunding rubber market is mainly fluctuating in the short term.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, from December 9th to 13th, MTBE prices rose from 5525 yuan/ton to 5612 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 1.58% during the period, a month on month increase of 5.40%, and a year-on-year decrease of 12.98%. The domestic MTBE market is mainly volatile, and the price increase is particularly evident. The core driving factor for the wide upward trend in prices is the large delivery of gasoline shipping orders and the good support of new vehicle and shipping orders. Industry players have a high enthusiasm for purchasing related gasoline raw materials, and MTBE manufacturers are actively pushing up prices. However, near the end of the week, manufacturers’ shipments have weakened.

In terms of cost and crude oil, the rise in international oil prices is mainly due to the increased potential supply risks in the Middle East caused by the turbulent situation in Syria, coupled with improved economic and demand prospects in Asia. As of December 12th, the Brent price was $73.52 per barrel.

From the perspective of demand and downstream gasoline terminal demand, international crude oil futures have fluctuated upwards, and the gasoline market has shown strong performance. Refineries have increased their enthusiasm for pushing prices, and market transactions are mainly dominated by gasoline. Short term MTBE demand is influenced by favorable factors.

Supply side: There are currently no new start-up and shutdown devices, and the overall fluctuation of resource supply is limited. The short-term impact on domestic MTBE supply is mixed.

As of the close on December 12th, the closing price of the Asian MTBE market has increased by $12/ton compared to the previous trading day, with FOB Singapore closing at $731.49-733.49/ton. The closing price of the European MTBE market decreased by $3.75/ton compared to the previous trading day, and FOB ARA closed at $812.99-813.49/ton. The closing price of the MTBE market in the United States increased by $0.95/ton compared to the previous trading day, and the FOB Gulf offshore price closed at $825.37-825.73/ton (233.05-233.15 cents/gallon).

Future forecast: After the MTBE price rises to a temporary high, the resistance of industry players to high prices is increasing, and the market may have a moderate slight correction, but the space is limited. MTBE analysts from Shengyi Society believe that the domestic MTBE market will consolidate narrowly in the short term.